汇市动荡一周！多重因素下人民币突发跳水，美元韧性超预期

第一财经03-24

过去一周无疑是“超级央行周”，汇市也出现了罕见的波动，不仅多个币种波动较大，且方向与设想的南辕北辙。日元在久违的加息下却对美元大跌，美元在鸽派信号下逆势崛起，久未出现波动的人民币在21日单日大跌超500点。“其实对人民币波动大家并不感到恐慌，但日元令人非常意外，美元/日元是近阶段海外被频繁交易的品种，而且博弈的方向都是做多日元，没想到这波行情这么反常，现在日元的空单拿得真是太难受了，既要损失汇率...

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Under multiple factors, the RMB suddenly dived, and the resilience of the US dollar exceeded expectations","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ING":1},"content_text":"过去一周无疑是“超级央行周”，汇市也出现了罕见的波动，不仅多个币种波动较大，且方向与设想的南辕北辙。\n日元在久违的加息下却对美元大跌，美元在鸽派信号下逆势崛起，久未出现波动的人民币在21日单日大跌超500点。“其实对人民币波动大家并不感到恐慌，但日元令人非常意外，美元/日元是近阶段海外被频繁交易的品种，而且博弈的方向都是做多日元，没想到这波行情这么反常，现在日元的空单拿得真是太难受了，既要损失汇率又要损失利息。”某外汇交易员对的第一财经记者表示。\n当前，市场密切关注3月28日将公布的东京CPI数据和29日将公布的美国PCE通胀数据。\n日元快速走贬震惊交易员\n过去一周截至收盘，日元对美元大跌，美元/日元汇率逼近152的历史低位，收盘报151.4。与日本央行加息前的147相比，日元大幅走贬近3%。\n\n\n\n3月19日，日本央行决定退出持续8年之久的负利率政策，并放弃收益率曲线控制（YCC）和ETF购买计划，但仍维持购债规模不变。仍脆弱的经济和消费数据令日本央行维持谨慎，日元不涨反跌，当日美元/日元再度突破150大关。\n由于做多日元、做空美元会直接损失利差（因为持有日元没有利息，而美元利率位于高位），加之日元反而贬值，这就导致众多交易机构亏损。\nStoneX资深分析师斯考特（David Scutt）对记者表示，日元不涨反跌确实是市场在“卖出事实”，“日本央行加息的动向很早就已经和媒体放风，日本央行还表示将维持债券购买计划，这和其他主要发达国家的走向有所分化，所以我不惊讶日元再度对美元走贬。从长期轨迹来看，更多将取决于美国的利率走势。如果美元走强，我们完全有可能看到美元/日元重新测试几十年来的高点，即接近152的位置。”\n不过，弱势的日元并不一定会长期持续下去。保德信固定收益（PGIM Fixed Income）提及，日本央行可能进一步收紧政策，“日本央行可能提早宣布启动量化紧缩政策，从而对全球债券市场产生溢出效应。”\n野村方面认为，在2024年春斗以大幅涨薪告终的假设前提下，预计2023~2025财年日本核心CPI同比涨幅将分别达到2.8%、2.3%和1.8%。今年春季薪资谈判开局强劲，而在这种情况下，野村预计日本通胀形势将从以输入性通胀为主逐渐转向以内生性通胀为主。有鉴于此，该机构维持对日本央行将在2024年10月再次上调政策利率至0.25%的预期不变。\n未来一周，除了日本央行意见摘要将会发布，东京的CPI数据也将在3月28日揭晓。“日本央行的意见摘要可能会透露决策过程的统一程度，以及未来其他人持不同意见的可能性。”斯考特告诉记者，而东京是日本人口最多的城市，其CPI数据被广泛视为全国消费者通胀的关键指标。东京CPI在2月飙升，如果再次出现数据升温，可能引发对再次加息的猜测。\n多重因素下人民币突发跳水\n和日元的反常走势相比，3月22日（周五）突发跳水的人民币显得没有那么引人关注。\n当日，受到外围消息扰动，离岸人民币对美元一度跌至7.2656，日内波幅高达近500点，为近阶段罕见。美国国会隔夜宣布了新一轮“敌对投资法案”，其中包含4项针对“敌国公司”的投资限制。市场对于地缘政治风险的担忧再度升温。此外，美元走势强于预期，日元在加息背景下仍大幅下挫，这也导致美元指数更为强劲。\n截至22日收盘，美元/离岸人民币报7.2761，比在岸人民币的7.2296弱了近500点，在岸和离岸的价差近阶段出现如此大的差距实属罕见。\n\n\n\n“面对海外波动，在岸市场的大行其实对稳定市场波动也做了准备。”某股份行交易员对记者提及。\n事实上，除了对地缘政治扰动的反应，人民币波动也来源于交易员对中间价的过度关注。巴克莱中国利率、外汇策略师张蒙对记者表示：“初始触发人民币贬值的因素应该是隔夜美元对所有货币的强势走势。此外，人民币中间价也存在一定影响，市场正在重新调整预期，因为中国央行本可以将中间价保持在7.099左右的水平（就和过去一段时间一样），但22日的中间价为7.1004，接着就出现在岸汇率跌破7.2，触发了一些对冲基金的止损，可能是和期权有关。”\n一段时间以来，人民币中间价都稳定在7.09的区间，很久没有突破7.1。多位外资行外汇交易员对记者表示：“交易员将此视为一种态度，因为目前人民币波幅最大为2%，7.1004就隐含了7.25的交易点位。一些海外对冲基金的止损盘（stop loss）被触发，导致人民币对美元短线走弱，但整体市场并不恐慌，当日其实还看到有客户卖出美元/人民币远期。日元近期的贬值幅度其实更大。”\n也有机构人士表示，其实中国央行的态度没有出现明显变化。22日，美元/人民币中间价仍然是处于偏强位置，相较于现货价格偏离近1000点，持续体现了央行维持汇率稳定的意愿，离岸机构的反应有些过度了。\n中航信托宏观策略总监吴照银对记者表示，作为交易品种，汇率波动是很正常的，可能并没有什么特殊的原因。从人民币基本面看，中国贸易顺差长期保持高位，1~2月贸易顺差创同期历史新高，人民币不存在因支付问题而出现贬值。对人民币汇率短期波动没必要紧张。\n美元韧性超预期\n过去一周，美元的韧性大超市场预期，这也导致人民币突破了波动区间。\n3月21日，美联储维持利率不变，但“点阵图”出人意料，即使年初通胀数据超预期，但仍支持今年3次降息各25个基点，释放出鸽派信号。这导致美元指数强势攀升，收于104大关之上，报104.115。\n\n\n\n美元的强势与经济韧性息息相关。美联储大幅上调了对2024年经济增长的预期。21日公布的数据也显示，美国上周初请失业金人数意外下降，2月成屋销售增幅为一年来最大。积极的数据表明美联储未来不需要急于降息。\n但荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师在一份报告中表示，“即便如此，美元的升势似乎有些过头了。美联储早些时候已经发出了一个相当明确的信息——只要通胀显示出下行势头，经济活动即使具有韧性也不会阻碍降息。”\n多家接受记者采访的机构表示，美国通胀下行的趋势未变，年内降息3次的概率较大。美联储不需要等到通胀达到2%才降息，否则通胀就会更低，可能在2.5%附近就可以开始降息。高盛也认为，美国通胀中期下行趋势完好，预计6月将首次降息，9月、12月再降息。\n美国PCE通胀数据将在29日公布。斯考特告诉记者，美元多头将期待美元指数突破空头趋势线，并迈向2月的高点（接近105关口）。此后，105.65区域的前支撑位可能成为下一个目标。如果美国通胀数据再次开始下降，则可能会在未来几个月见证美元指数的走跌。\n.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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