银河证券：存储行业景气度拐点已至 AI、国产化、需求复苏带来新周期

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银河证券发布研究报告称，存储芯片赛道属于高成长强周期行业，现在当下时点是存储芯片赛道下一轮周期的新起点，在AI/国产化/需求复苏叠加数字经济对存力的需求不断抬升的背景下，看好国内存储产业链相关上市公司的投资机遇。关注存储芯片设计公司兆易创新(603986.SH)、北京君正(300223.SZ)、澜起科技(688008.SH)等，模组厂商关注江波龙(301308.SZ)、德明利(001309.SZ)...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2024-03-14/doc-inanhkpu7879001.shtml><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>银河证券发布研究报告称，存储芯片赛道属于高成长强周期行业，现在当下时点是存储芯片赛道下一轮周期的新起点，在AI/国产化/需求复苏叠加数字经济对存力的需求不断抬升的背景下，看好国内存储产业链相关上市公司的投资机遇。关注存储芯片设计公司兆易创新(603986.SH)、北京君正(300223.SZ)、澜起科技(688008.SH)等，模组厂商关注江波龙(301308.SZ)、德明利(001309.SZ)...</p>\n\n<a 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cycle","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300042":1,"300223":1,"301308":1,"600584":1,"603986":1,"688008":1,"001309":1,"002156":1,"000021":1},"content_text":"银河证券发布研究报告称，存储芯片赛道属于高成长强周期行业，现在当下时点是存储芯片赛道下一轮周期的新起点，在AI/国产化/需求复苏叠加数字经济对存力的需求不断抬升的背景下，看好国内存储产业链相关上市公司的投资机遇。关注存储芯片设计公司兆易创新(603986.SH)、北京君正(300223.SZ)、澜起科技(688008.SH)等，模组厂商关注江波龙(301308.SZ)、德明利(001309.SZ)、朗科科技(300042.SZ)等，关注相关产业链封测厂商深科技(000021.SZ)、长电科技(600584.SH)、通富微电(002156.SZ)等。银河证券观点如下：存储行业市场规模超千亿，是半导体产业的主要细分市场，DRAM和NAND为当前主流。22/21/20年全球存储市场规模分别为1392/1534/1175亿美金，占半导体规模的比例分为别24%/28%/27%，是全球第二大细分品类，其中DRAM和NAND Flash是最主流的半导体存储器，市场规模占比超过95%。DRAM技术发展方向逐步向高传输速率和低功耗方向发展，在技术节点上，DRAM原厂正逐步向物理极限制程演进;NAND存储主要趋势为向高密度存储和3D堆叠演进，在堆叠层数上，三星预期将在2024年生产超过300层的第九代 V-NAND 闪存，堆叠层数仍在持续突破。从存储芯片来看，3-4年时间约为一个完整周期，AI需求正在创造行业第五轮周期起点。从2000年之后，存储行业周期表现明显，电子消费品的创新能快速提升存储芯片的整体需求，以2000、2009、2017年为例，是互联网时代、移动互联网、云计算大规模投入的三个重要窗口期。而2004年和2020年的PC迭代与手机的换机周期导致市场反弹较为疲软，同时在各个周期环节中，供给端的缩量增价等行为往往滞后于需求的快速爆发，因此在价格周期底部布局能够获得较大弹性。从当前窗口期来看，AI服务器、AI PC、AIMobile等需求快速提升，对于云端和边缘端的存算力均在提升，目前行业的第五轮周期起点已确认。供需格局逐步改善，存储芯片价值稳步提升。23H1三星、SK海力士、美光、西部数据和铠侠等厂商纷纷宣布减少产能，厂商降低关于存储业务的资本性支出。各大厂商不约而同的减产计划促使存储周期提前，在存储需求不断扩大的前提下，存储芯片的价格将会上升，提前进入复苏周期。供给端减产持续，供应缺口预期在24Q2到来。目前根据测算，自2023年起，海外厂商的产能利用率和资本支出已显著减少，存储芯片价值稳步提升。AI Server、AI PC、AI Mobile持续放量，存储市场迎来新发展机遇。PC端AI发展由软硬件协同驱动，2022年ChatGPT开启了AI大模型浪潮，AI应用场景日渐丰富, AI PC的发展正朝着“计算+存储+传感”全面扩展,随着计算和传感性能的提升，存储需求也随之增长，尤其是对内存容量的需求。生成式AI模型，如LLaMA模型，对内存的要求很高。例如，70亿参数的LLaMA模型FP16版本大小约为14GB，而现有的移动设备内存通常不到10GB。在服务器领域，算力芯片带来HBM的需求快速增长，TrendForce数据显示，高端AI服务器GPU普遍采用HBM，预计2023全 球HBM需求将增长近60%，达2.9亿GB，2024年再增30%。美光推出最新HBM3 Gen 2内存样品，速度达1.2 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