瑞幸碰到了天花板？

懂财帝03-11

门店规模、营收都已超越星巴克，瑞幸要好好思考，如何出好牌，在利润方面赶上星巴克。 ©️懂财帝出品 · 作者｜嘉逸现磨咖啡业价格战的发起者会主动退出价格战，多少有些令人意外。近期“瑞幸9.9元一杯活动缩水”的话题火上热搜，原来全场可用的9.9元优惠券，变成只有8款指定饮品可参与。瑞幸回应“企业优惠活动调整是正常经营行为”，但在大批网友喊出“倒戈”库迪的声浪中，瑞幸还是做了小小的让步，增加了2款...

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· 作者｜嘉逸\n现磨咖啡业价格战的发起者会主动退出价格战，多少有些令人意外。\n近期“瑞幸9.9元一杯活动缩水”的话题火上热搜，原来全场可用的9.9元优惠券，变成只有8款指定饮品可参与。\n瑞幸回应“企业优惠活动调整是正常经营行为”，但在大批网友喊出“倒戈”库迪的声浪中，瑞幸还是做了小小的让步，增加了2款...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240311A00SNB00\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LKNCY","symbol_name":"瑞幸咖啡","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240311A00SNB00","article_id":"2418329824","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://inews.gtimg.com/om_ls/O7i21zQWgAF8cNf8jC7Mr_I0HtTuw3Y_y8qIOMeyW4GdwAA_294195/0"],"rights":{"source":"tencent_tech","url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240311A00SNB00","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.title{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.author, .pubtime{#sourceStyle#; display: inline-block;} .pubtime{margin-left: 3px;}strong{font-weight:500;#lv2TextColor#}","selectors":".main-wrapper","filters":".follow_top, .channel-entry, .collapseWrapper, .pic, .gap, .showDividingLine, .loader, .container, .ct-sumary, .nav, .landad, .hairline-top, .footer, .recommend-modules, .headroom-wrapper, .elevator","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418329824","pubTimestamp":1710114845,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent_tech","name":"腾讯科技"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"门店规模、营收都已超越星巴克，瑞幸要好好思考，如何出好牌，在利润方面赶上星巴克。懂财帝出品 · 作者｜嘉逸 现磨咖啡业价格战的发起者会主动退出价格战，多少有些令人意外。 近期“瑞幸9.9元一杯活动缩水”的话题火上热搜，原来全场可用的9.9元优惠券，变成只有8款指定饮品可参与。 瑞幸回应“企业优惠活动调整...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡","BK4209":"餐馆"},"translate_title":"Ruixing touched the ceiling?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LKNCY":1},"content_text":"门店规模、营收都已超越星巴克，瑞幸要好好思考，如何出好牌，在利润方面赶上星巴克。\n©️懂财帝出品 · 作者｜嘉逸\n现磨咖啡业价格战的发起者会主动退出价格战，多少有些令人意外。\n近期“瑞幸9.9元一杯活动缩水”的话题火上热搜，原来全场可用的9.9元优惠券，变成只有8款指定饮品可参与。\n瑞幸回应“企业优惠活动调整是正常经营行为”，但在大批网友喊出“倒戈”库迪的声浪中，瑞幸还是做了小小的让步，增加了2款指定饮品。\n瑞幸怨不得网友“破防”，毕竟2023年8月的二季度业绩说明会上，其CEO郭谨一曾表示，决定将9.9元优惠活动常态化进行下去，至少持续两年。\n观察瑞幸2023年报，9.9元活动缩水事出有因。2023年，瑞幸在中国市场的总销售额为248.6亿元（约34.5亿美元），同期星巴克在中国市场实现约227.39亿元（31.6亿美元）营收，但利润持续压缩。\n从发展策略来看，踢掉创始人陆正耀的瑞幸不再像以前那么激进，而是力求稳健，对利润更敏感。\n星巴克坚持不打价格战，库迪试图“杀死”瑞幸，瑞幸则是把重点放在扩张上，高线城市和下沉城市“两条腿”走路，向规模要利润。\n瑞幸掉头，咖啡业迎来又一个拐点。\n01｜没有胜利者的游戏\n“从我创业开始，但凡跟我竞争的，我每仗都打赢了。”作为瑞幸和库迪的创始人，陆正耀最擅长以低价为武器，把对手拖入价格战泥潭。\n但瑞幸与库迪的鏖战，谈输赢还太早。\n2023年，瑞幸咖啡营业总收入为249.03亿元，同比增长87.3%；美国会计准则（GAAP）下全年营业利润为30.26亿元，较2022年实现翻倍增长。\n\n\n\n靓丽业绩的另一面，是瑞幸“赚钱卖吆喝”的尴尬现实。\n2023Q1至Q2，其营业利润几乎增长了一倍。到了下半年，虽有“酱香拿铁”这个大爆品支撑，仍无法阻止Q3营业利润下滑，Q4更是骤减465%，仅为1.71亿元，也逊色于2022Q4的3.21亿元\n虽说冬季是咖啡淡季，但往年Q3、Q4从未有过如此大幅的下降，“9.9元价格战”是重要转折点。\n去年2月，库迪宣布开启“百城千店咖啡狂欢节”，把70余款热销产品的价格降至9.9元，立即吸引了大量消费者，门店扩张也迎来爆发期。\n眼看着库迪风头越来越猛，4个月后，瑞幸全国门店数破万时，趁势推出每周9.9元优惠活动，消费者每周有一次花9.9元就能喝一杯咖啡的机会。\n庆祝万店只是名头，与库迪抢地盘才是目的，瑞幸不惜“贴身肉搏”。\n活动起初，只有库迪附近的瑞幸门店支持使用9.9优惠券。随后，瑞幸大规模推广9.9元活动，库迪周边的部分瑞幸门店甚至天天发放9.9元优惠券。\n一打就打半年，谁也没占到多大的好处。\n目前瑞幸以自营以主，主要烧自己的真金白银，伤自己的元气。\n\n\n\n而库迪以加盟为主，拿加盟商的钱当子弹。去年12月，一位自称库迪咖啡联营商的用户在社交平台发布了一篇《致库迪咖啡公司管理层的一封信》的帖子，表示因投资库迪咖啡这个错误决定，自己损失45万元。\n库迪从创立之初便实行联营版的加盟模式，区别于传统的加盟模式，库迪对加盟商有2个月的保护期，公司代管门店2个月，亏损也由公司买单。\n库迪不收取加盟费，而是通过毛利抽点的方式收取服务费，加盟商卖得越多，库迪赚得越多。\n显然，没有什么加盟商会情愿输自己的血，给库迪卖命。\n极海品牌监测统计的数据显示，截至3月1日，库迪在过去90天新开了429家门店，关掉的门店则为476家，关门率到达危险的100%以上。\n加盟商净流入为负，意味着库迪将入不敷出，且库迪至今没传来融资的消息。长期以往，其资金流动压力势必加大。\n相比之下，同期瑞幸新开2981家门店，关店的只有197家。\n库迪与瑞幸的价格战如同在湖中投入一颗巨石，连星巴克也遭拖累。\n星巴克截至2023年12月31日的2024财年Q1财报显示，期内星巴克中国营业收入约为52.78亿元，同比增长18%。因开展促销活动，星巴克中国平均客单价下降9%。\n02｜价格生死线\n瑞幸投资报告指出，9.9元是当前瑞幸运营效率下价格的极限。\n但9.9元并不是现磨咖啡业的最低价，曾经象征着小资生活的咖啡，纷纷卷出“白菜价”。幸运咖的手捣冰柠咖仅卖5元，新兴品牌爵渴咖啡的美式定价5元，打工人咖啡的美式只需4元。\n放在几年前，这些定价几乎是不可能的数字，顶多是咖啡馆拉新引流的短期营销手段，日常价格普遍在20元以上。\n即使是发起行业第一次价格战的瑞幸，也只是把价格基线打到10-15元。\n最疯狂的时候，瑞幸抛出各种优惠和补贴的加持下，一度把单杯价格拉低至7元。当时有瑞幸员工对外透露，一杯咖啡的成本是13.5元。\n陆正耀率领瑞幸改写了游戏规则，行业就此大洗牌，玩低价成为大多数新玩家的共识。\n但经历了“财务造假”风波、赶走陆正耀的瑞幸，已回归理性状态，2023年二季度前把定价提升至18-21元，处于行业中等水平。\n根据国盛证券的研究报告，一杯瑞幸咖啡的成本合计为15.85元，原材料和人工就占了总成本一半以上。按此计算，每卖出一杯9.9元的咖啡，就得亏5.95元。\n\n\n\n（图源：国盛证券）\n星巴克一杯咖啡的成本则合计22.17元，房租和门店日常运营占据绝大成本。但星巴克无意沉陷价格战，只是偶尔开展19.9元/杯的优惠活动，盈利压力比瑞幸小得多。\n库迪咖啡首席策略官李颖波曾称，一杯咖啡的成本不超过9元。以此测算，即使盈利空间有限，还是存在薄利多销的可能性。\n今年2月26日，在全球门店数达到7000家之际，库迪咖啡开启“好咖啡全场9.9不限量”活动，除交通枢纽和旅游景点等少数门店外，其余全部门店全场饮品9.9元促销，不限品类和数量，持续三个月。\n库迪还透露，该次活动将延续门店补贴政策。根据门店位置和房租等不同为联营商提供不同补贴，单杯最高补贴至14.5元，预计本次活动总补贴金额将达2亿～3亿元。\n看似死磕价格战的库迪，其实也有过犹豫。\n去年4月，库迪曾暂停9.9元/杯的优惠活动。据新消费日报报道，提价后库迪全国层面的销量下滑了5%-10%，而提价前加盟商是边卖边亏。\n同年8月初，库迪甚至直接取消了“天天9.9元”活动，下架8.8元门店专属券，改为仅生椰拿铁可享受8.8元优惠。因此有网友吐槽，由8.8元变成9.9元，库迪是变相涨价了。\n一提价就得面临销售下降、增长放缓的后果，不提价就得承受资金压力，库迪左右为难。\n尽管瑞幸同样纠结价格策略，但退出相对坚决。\n有媒体报道，2024年春节期间在北京很难点到瑞幸9.9元饮品，可3月初这一活动又回来了。\n接着，瑞幸每周“9.9元喝一杯”的优惠活动只剩8款指定饮品参与活动。或许是受激烈市场反应影响，瑞幸又增加了2款9.9元单品。\n目前瑞幸的最低价产品标准美式定价14元，20-21元的饮品占了绝大部分。\n尽管陆正耀多次挑衅，但能看出瑞幸新管理层不会重走“亏钱换份额”的老路，而是想“既要规模又要利润”。\n03｜如何破题\n低价是一张好牌，但单出容易陷入困局，配合其它牌一起出才更有可能产生1+1>2的效果。\n瑞幸退出价格战，库迪还在加码，背后是库迪能出的牌不多，瑞幸则有更多的回旋空间。更大规模的门店、更成熟的供应链、更强的产品研发创新能力，均是瑞幸应对竞争的支撑。\n规模效应带来的甜果，瑞幸早就尝过。国盛证券显示，2019Q1至Q3，瑞幸成本有所下降，并进行了小幅涨价。与此同时，推动门店扩张计划。\n结果，当年Q3单店销量同比增长53.4%，助力瑞幸首次扭亏。\n\n\n\n（图源国盛证券）\n在所有玩低价的品牌中，库迪能对瑞幸构成最大威胁，关键原因就在于库迪急速膨胀的震慑力。\n库迪开出7000家门店的时间，只用了2年2个月，速度是瑞幸的2倍，还喊出了 2025 年底全球门店数量达到 20000家的目标。\n\n\n\n和库迪、幸运咖相比，瑞幸的新增门店数量一度处于下风，直到2023年8月才迎来拐点，扩店凶猛，把领先优势维持至今。\n开店逻辑成为瑞幸收入增长的核心驱动力，门店高速增长带动瑞幸总收入水涨船高。\n截止2023Q4末，瑞幸总门店数为16248 家，同比增加97.8%，其中直营门店数量为10628家，同比增加88.0%，占比 65.4%。加盟门店数量为5620家，同比增加119.4%，占比34.6%。\n另外，Q4自营门店收入51.0亿元，同比上升89.2%，占比72.2%，较去年同期下降0.8%。加盟门店收入 17.6 亿元，同比上升109.1%，占比25%，较去年同期提高2.1%。\n在低价和规模的天平两边，瑞幸倾向于规模，以获得更多的边际效应。\n郭谨一表示，计划进一步增加在高线城市的门店数量，并通过合作伙伴模式加速向低线城市市场扩张，到2024年将超过2万家。\n星巴克也信奉规模效应，继续推进2025年9000家的目标。“我们对卷入价格战不感兴趣，有明确的战略来推动同店销售和整体增长，包括交易量和客单价的增长。”星巴克中国董事长兼CEO王静瑛称。\n善于制造爆款，是瑞幸的另一张好牌，多年来保持稳定的上新速度。\n2022年，瑞幸了上新77款饮品，2021年达113款，2022年108款，2023年102款。截止2023年年底，瑞幸现制饮品数超过19亿杯，其中SKU销量破亿的就有8个。\n生椰拿铁两年卖了3亿多杯、单日销售额破亿元的酱香拿铁，这样的成绩让星巴克产生焦虑。星巴克1个月内不断推出新品上市，这是前所未有的上新速度。\n当然，在产品严重同质化的咖啡赛道，瑞幸的产品有可复制性，味道评价也因人而异。\n比如，同样的生椰拿铁，瑞幸为20元，库迪为16.9元（非活动价）。但先发优势还是可以抢占用户心智，提到生椰拿铁，许多消费者第一反应是瑞幸。\n短期来看，库迪能靠抄袭快速积累用户、拉高销量。长期而言，缺乏创新性核心产品，库迪难以与瑞幸抗衡。\n陆正耀时期的瑞幸，选择对标星巴克，追求有星巴克的地方就有瑞幸。\n陆正耀的库迪不想再当星巴克的“替身”，而是剑指瑞幸，变成了“有瑞幸的地方就要有库迪”。\n门店规模、营收都已超越星巴克，瑞幸要好好思考，如何出好牌，在利润方面赶上星巴克。\n参考资料：\n1|国盛证券，《瑞幸咖啡-LK.US-价值加速回归，单店日赚381元，小鹿茶日销超百杯》\n2|海豚投研，《站不稳的库迪，卷不死的瑞幸》\n说明：数据源于公开披露，不构成任何投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。\n.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #e17719;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(225, 119, 25, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #007dbb;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care][data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and 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