近期玉米产业上下游——相关情况!政策刺激,能否止跌?

期货小褚01-14

刚刚过去的一周,是2024年的第二周,玉米价格继续呈现下跌趋势,不过波动比较大。从上周末开始,玉米上量增加,山东价格崩盘式暴跌,甚至一天五落,多家企业大幅回落;然后随着期货的下跌,东北产区价格也连续回落。山东价格创近年新低,随着价格回落,到车数量减少,周三四止跌;周四随着增储消息的发布和期货的大幅飙升,价格开始出现上涨。不过东北地区继续回落。期货方面,波动比较大。整体看本周,玉米主力合约下跌...

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Can policy stimulus stop the decline?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IGC":1},"content_text":"刚刚过去的一周,是2024年的第二周,玉米价格继续呈现下跌趋势,不过波动比较大。从上周末开始,玉米上量增加,山东价格崩盘式暴跌,甚至一天五落,多家企业大幅回落;然后随着期货的下跌,东北产区价格也连续回落。\n山东价格创近年新低,随着价格回落,到车数量减少,周三四止跌;周四随着增储消息的发布和期货的大幅飙升,价格开始出现上涨。不过东北地区继续回落。\n期货方面,波动比较大。整体看本周,玉米主力合约下跌0.84%,跌幅较前两周有所增加;尤其是当周先大跌,受到政策变动后,盘中大幅飙升,周五小幅回落。\n未来如何运行?让我们了解玉米上下游相关情况,以待对后市有一个基本判断!\n\n\n\n让我们看下近期玉米产业上下游——相关情况!\n当周(1月8日--1月12日)从中央储备玉米情况看,其采购放量,成交价格大幅下跌。当周挂网采购36.34万吨,成交34万吨,成交率94%。相比来看上周采购15.7万吨,成交13万吨,成交率83%。\n\n\n\n先了解一下玉米深加工和饲料企业情况\n随着春节逐渐临近,基层售粮节奏有所加快,种植户卖粮意愿增强,市场整体上量增加,深加工企业厂门到货维持高位,玉米库存明显提升。\n据Mysteel农产品调研显示,全国12个地区,96家主要玉米深加工厂家2024年第2周(截至1月10日)加工企业玉米库存总量482.5万吨,较上周增加10.79%,突破8个月高点。\n\n\n\n近期华北原料玉米供应充裕,部分前期检修的企业陆续恢复生产,玉米淀粉行业开机率再度升高。\n据Mysteel玉米团队调查数据显示,1月4日-1月10日当周,全国淀粉企业开机率为70.71%,较上周升高1.03%,再度突破逾两年高点。全国玉米淀粉产量为35.77万吨,较上周产量升高0.52万吨。\n\n\n\n国内玉米淀粉企业库存小幅上升,各区域表现不一。近期华北原料玉米供应充裕,部分前期检修的企业陆续恢复生产,玉米淀粉产量再度提升,市场提货仍较为稳定,工厂有序安排发货。\n据Mysteel农产品调查数据显示,截至1月10日,全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量68.5万吨,较上周增加0.5万吨,周降幅0.8%,月增幅0.44%;年同比降幅12.4%。\n\n\n\n其次看下售粮进度方面\n目前国内主产区售粮进度同比偏慢,玉米供应压力仍未得到有效释放,春节前部分农户存在变现需求,基层售粮积极性将逐步增强,市场供应压力预期将逐渐兑现。\n据Mysteel玉米团队统计,截至1月11日,全国13个省份农户售粮进度44%,较去年同期减少4%。全国7个主产省份农户售粮进度为40%,较去年同期减少4%。(不过比上周同期提升4%,1月4日当周,全国7个主产省份农户售粮进度为36%)\n而且不同机构的统计数据虽然有差异,但是综合看售粮进度偏慢是不争的事实!\n比如截至2024年1月11日,吉林省入统企业收购玉米851万吨,较1月8日增加60.5万吨,占产量3374.4万吨(国粮中心月报预估)的25.22%,较1月8日进度推进1.79个百分点。\n\n\n\n国际谷物理事会(IGC)将2023/24年度全球玉米产量预估,从从11月预估的12.23亿吨上调至12.30亿吨。其中将中国玉米产量预估从2.806亿吨上调至2.888亿吨。\n我们知道玉米主要用途是做饲料,而其中最主要是被当做猪料\n。据Wind数据显示,截至1月12日当周,自繁自养生猪养殖利润为亏损269.48元/头,1月5日为亏损233.21元/头;外购仔猪养殖利润为亏损232.73元/头,1月5日为亏损214.46元/头。\n\n\n\n再看下饲料企业库存方面。\n国内饲料企业继续进行春节备货采购,玉米库存小幅攀升,但饲料养殖需求疲软,饲企采购心态谨慎,仅进行少量备货,备货力度较往年偏弱。\n根据Mysteel玉米团队的最新调查数据显示,截至1月11日,饲料企业玉米平均库存30.44天,周环比增加0.09天,涨幅0.07%,但明显低于去年同期,同比下跌15.22%。\n\n\n\n最后看下广东港口玉米库存情况\n当周(1月6日-1月12日)广东港口内贸玉米供需小结:本周到货7.7万吨,环比下降6.1%,同比下降9.4%;上周到货8.2万吨,2022年同期到货8.5万吨。截至1月12日,广东港口内贸库存共计8万吨;外贸玉米库存103.9万吨。\n当周最大的事件就是周四上午,中储粮发布增储消息。\n\n\n\n通过玉米产业上下游相关数据,我们可以看出需求没有大家想象的那么坏,但是现在处于玉米上市供应高峰期,市场情绪低迷;增储政策的发布,会改变这种状况吗?山东已经筑底企稳,东北产区持续回落,还能跌多少?节前卖压的,还是备货需求大?收储数量和价格如何?都需要大家关注!不过玉米跌到这个位置,您要不要建立库存?\n.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: 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