药明生物今年药物开发、药物生产业绩均不及预期，药明合联收入预期不变

IPO早知道2023-12-05

行业下行周期中公司新增项目数较去年明显下降，CMO项目短期面临收入延期问题。据IPO早知道消息，12月4日，药明生物（2269.HK）发布业绩更新，调低今年业绩预期。公司称，药物开发（D端）新增项目数减少导致3亿美元收入的减少，及药物生产（M端）收入递延带来1亿美元收入降低，是今年不及预期的主要原因。同时，公司投资于全球产能，全球基地的产能爬坡导致2023年毛利亏损1亿美元。新产能爬坡、以及收入...

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以及收入增速放缓均将导致公司利润下降。12月4日，药明生物盘中跌超23%并暂停交易。药明生物子公司药明合联（2268.HK）股价跌10.87%至28.70港元。药明生物业绩更新显示，今年年初，公司在假设行业增长15%的基础上设立了2023年公司增长30%的目标，但由于新冠收入快速降低，公司整体收入包含新冠已是高基数，在达成行业2倍增速的情况下业务表现或将不及预期。分业务来看，公司药物开发收入下调18%-20%；药物生产收入下降15%-18%；而药物发现（R端）业务和药明合联预期不变。D端和M端两个预料之外事件影响2023年收入和利润业绩更新材料显示，受研发服务收入稳定增长、今年上半年和GSK的授权合同贡献4000万美元首付款，及另一些合同进入执行等因素驱动，药明生物的药物发现业务强劲增长。截至2023年11月30日，药明生物新增项目91个。药物开发收入增速低于预期，主要由于在下行周期中公司2023年目标新增120个项目显然过于激进；比去年减少40个新项目，意味着约3亿美元收入的减少。公司的药物生产收入下降，主要由于今年下半年的主要意外是由于监管机构批准滞后，3个来自大药企的重磅药延期，影响约1亿美元收入；另外新冠生产收入2022年占比约35%，今年非新冠项目填补了大部分新冠收入空缺，因此今年生产收入基本持平。ADC需求增长强劲另外，药明生物预计其并表子公司药明合联2023和2024年收入分别有70%-75%和60%-65%的增长。公司指出，ADC在欧美，特别是中国的市场需求强劲。药明合联于11月在港交所上市，主营与ADC有关的CRDMO业务。以2023年中报收入计，药明合联收入（9.935亿元）于药明生物占比为11%。截至2023年上半年，药明合联在中国拥有所有中美双报IND/BLA的ADC候选药物的开发合同。2023年上半年，来自北美、中国、欧洲和其他地区的客户收入占比分别为37.0%、35.9%、23.1%、4.0%。2023年上半年，药明合联有未完成订单4.11亿美元。行业未来两年预期个位数增长，公司市场份额在提升药明生物在业绩更新中总结，2023年是转型之年，今年新增项目比去年明显下降，行业在未来两年预期个位数增长，公司在过去10年达到行业3-4倍增幅，未来目标是行业2倍增速；此外，CMO项目中长期增长确定性强，然而短期面临项目收入晚于预期的问题。公司还指出，尽管2023年全球市场大幅缩小，但公司市场份额持续提升。尽管生物技术融资放缓带来挑战，但新增项目数仍远高于疫情前水平。2023年中国区新增项目数恢复至约20%的占比；北美贡献约55%的新增项目占比。\n\n\r\n 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