需求旺盛+欧佩克减产，埃克森美孚即将起飞？

美股研究社2023-09-23

作者|Investor Express编译|华尔街大事件乘着 2021 年至 2022 年末的能源繁荣，埃克森美孚公司（NASDAQ：XOM）和雪佛龙公司等多头已经积累了创纪录的利润。然而，在过去几个月里，多头似乎已经悄然卷土重来。油价上涨的关键驱动因素是强劲的需求。2023年，全球经济持续健康增长，没有出现衰退预期。这导致了对石油的意外高需求。与此同时，尽管经济活动强于预期且油价上涨，欧佩克集团...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2369421984?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-09-23 21:23","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2369421984","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"需求旺盛+欧佩克减产，埃克森美孚即将起飞？","media":"美股研究社","content":"<div>\n<p>作者|Investor Express编译|华尔街大事件乘着 2021 年至 2022 年末的能源繁荣，埃克森美孚公司（NASDAQ：XOM）和雪佛龙公司等多头已经积累了创纪录的利润。然而，在过去几个月里，多头似乎已经悄然卷土重来。油价上涨的关键驱动因素是强劲的需求。2023年，全球经济持续健康增长，没有出现衰退预期。这导致了对石油的意外高需求。与此同时，尽管经济活动强于预期且油价上涨，欧佩克集团...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230923212504826401de&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>需求旺盛+欧佩克减产，埃克森美孚即将起飞？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n需求旺盛+欧佩克减产，埃克森美孚即将起飞？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-23 21:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230923212504826401de&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|Investor Express编译|华尔街大事件乘着 2021 年至 2022 年末的能源繁荣，埃克森美孚公司（NASDAQ：XOM）和雪佛龙公司等多头已经积累了创纪录的利润。然而，在过去几个月里，多头似乎已经悄然卷土重来。油价上涨的关键驱动因素是强劲的需求。2023年，全球经济持续健康增长，没有出现衰退预期。这导致了对石油的意外高需求。与此同时，尽管经济活动强于预期且油价上涨，欧佩克集团...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230923212504826401de&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999002521.SGD","symbol_name":"United Global Resources A Acc SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230923212504826401de&s=b","article_id":"2369421984","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230923212504826401de&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2369421984","pubTimestamp":1695475417,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"然而，对于埃克森美孚来说，这个等式成立。回顾过去 24 个月，很明显埃克森美孚收入的主要部分用于向股东分配现金。对埃克森美孚以及其他公司进行估值是一项棘手的工作。读者应该注意到，埃克森美孚在价格波动的大宗商品市场中运营，其财务状况受到原油价格、天然气价格和炼油利润的影响。总而言之，埃克森美孚公司似乎处于有利地位，可以利用油价回升的机会，为投资者提供丰厚的回报。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002521.SGD":"United Global Resources A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999014575.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USDHDG) INC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU1150488218.USD":"First Eagle Amundi Income Builder AU2-MD USD","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","XOM":"埃克森美孚","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1150488135.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi Income Builder AHS-MD SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","LU0122376428.USD":"贝莱德世界能源基金A2","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"translate_title":"Strong demand + OPEC production reduction, ExxonMobil is about to take off?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":1},"content_text":"作者|Investor Express编译|华尔街大事件乘着 2021 年至 2022 年末的能源繁荣，埃克森美孚公司（NASDAQ：XOM）和雪佛龙公司等多头已经积累了创纪录的利润。然而，在过去几个月里，多头似乎已经悄然卷土重来。油价上涨的关键驱动因素是强劲的需求。2023年，全球经济持续健康增长，没有出现衰退预期。这导致了对石油的意外高需求。与此同时，尽管经济活动强于预期且油价上涨，欧佩克集团仍决定减少供应。事实上，利雅得和莫斯科最近宣布，他们将延长原定于今年夏天到期的约每天约 130 万桶的自愿石油供应削减。当然，这引发了人们对石油市场供应短缺将导致库存水平下降的担忧，国际能源署警告说，欧佩克减产正在“使世界石油市场陷入严重赤字”。毫不奇怪，对冲基金和其他另类资产管理公司已经意识到石油市场的供需失衡，并押注价格将继续上涨，从而加剧了价格上涨的势头。尽管如此，值得考虑的是，石油市场似乎陷入了自我强化的看涨周期：减产导致供应紧张，迫使价格上涨。当石油价格在 2022 年底达到顶峰时，埃克森美孚的季度利润为 18亿-220 亿美元，运营现金流约为 20亿-250 亿美元。2023 年第二季度，这些数字分别降至 105 亿美元的利润和 93 亿美元的运营现金流。首先，这是不利的情况，如果 WTI 基准保持在 60-70 美元/桶的范围内，埃克森美孚可能会继续积累每季度约 100 亿美元的收益。与约 4600 亿美元的市值相比，年化收益率接近 10%，在我看来相当有吸引力。第二个要点与埃克森美孚在较高能源价格下的运营杠杆和运营盈利能力有关。最值得注意的是，如果我们考虑到油价回升至每桶 > 100 美元，那么投资者可以合理预期埃克森美孚的季度利润将再次接近 200 亿美元，从而导致年化隐含收益率接近 20%。公司更高的利润并不一定等于更高的股东回报。然而，对于埃克森美孚来说，这个等式成立。回顾过去 24 个月，很明显埃克森美孚收入的主要部分用于向股东分配现金。由于净负财务状况仅为 120 亿美元（41.5 美元债务和 29.5 美元现金），这种情况未来不太可能改变。就背景而言，在过去 12 个月中，埃克森美孚以股息形式向股东支付了约 149 亿美元，以股票回购形式向股东支付了 178 亿美元，而 TTM 运营现金流为 680 亿美元，资本支出为 153 亿美元。对埃克森美孚以及其他公司进行估值是一项棘手的工作。但有两个考虑因素可能表明投资者是否能以 116 美元/股的价格获得埃克森美孚的优惠交易。我想讨论的第一个论点是倍数基准。根据路孚特编制的数据，埃克森美孚的历史平均市盈率约为 9.9 倍，而目前的FWD 为 8.3 倍。虽然我认为投资埃克森美孚的风险与回报绝对是有利的，但也有一些下行风险需要考虑。读者应该注意到，埃克森美孚在价格波动的大宗商品市场中运营，其财务状况受到原油价格、天然气价格和炼油利润的影响。如果原油或天然气价格大幅下跌，可能会影响公司的盈利能力。总而言之，埃克森美孚公司似乎处于有利地位，可以利用油价回升的机会，为投资者提供丰厚的回报。由于需求强劲，该公司的盈利能力预计将保持稳健，其向股东分配现金的承诺表明 2024 年的收益率将超过 7%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2369421984","isCrawlerRequest":true}