零售行业8月行业动态报告：半年报业绩稳健修复，静待中秋与国庆双节同庆带来的消费机遇-230908

同花顺2023-09-11

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！最新观点：　　8月上半月零售行业继续大幅上升而下半月则震荡下降，截至8月31日，我们定义的零售指数涨幅为-0.68%，跑赢沪深300（-3.15%），跑输新零售指数（-0.16%）。零售行业总体表现与PE变化趋势较为契合，本月PE/PS/PB整体保持稳定，当前值（ 2023.8.31 ）分别处于2010年年初至今水平的...

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）分别处于2010年年初至今水平的40.00%/54.70%/2.00%百分位点，其中PB仍处于低估值区间。　　从政策层面来看为加速释放消费潜力，国家各个层面出台新措施促进消费发展。2023年7月，国家发改委印发的《关于恢复和扩大消费的措施》，并提到推动夜间文旅消费规范创新发展，引导博物馆、文化馆、游乐园等延长开放时间，支持有条件的地区建设“24小时生活圈”。各地政府也纷纷出台促消费措施。同时，政府将立足商务职能定位，围绕促进家居等特定消费品类高质量发展，出台针对性配套措施，增强政策的组合性、协同性、有效性，并抓好贯彻落实。　　从市场层面来看，我们覆盖线上电商，线下超市、购百、专业连锁等渠道商以及化妆品、个护等品牌商共计上市公司105家，形成零售行业。2023年上半年零售行业合计实现营业总收入4959.59亿元，同比上涨4.51%，若扣除会计准则变更对于某些行业的影响较大，基本已经恢复超过疫情前（2018-2019年）水平，据此我们认为在疫情影响消退及消费复苏等因素影响下，零售行业营收呈现温和增长的态势。需求端看，今年主线任务是扩内需、保增长、促消费，各地、各平台都推出了非常多活动，包括购物节和消费节、补贴券等；从供给端看，企业为适应时代变化进行一系列改革，如供应链改革、提质降本增效等，为企业实现营收增长和盈利修复提供了帮助。传统零售行业均以经营线下门店为主业，而自今年年初春节起线下客流增加明显，推动销售规模逐步恢复抬升。2023年上半年行业合计实现扣非后归母净亏损为137.15亿元，较前一年上涨6.41%，尚未恢复到正区间，与疫前水平相比差距较大。与该报告期时间段对应，2023年上半年实现社会消费品零售总额22.76万亿元，同比名义增长8.2%。其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额8.53万亿元，同比增长7.4%；除汽车以外的消费品零售额为20.52万亿元，同比增长8.3%。　　投资建议：长期社消整体增速会经钟摆轨迹回归至前期的均值趋势，因此对于增速的波动不宜过分担忧，消费市场规模仍会持续扩张并维持出现结构性机会。在此背景下，保持全渠道配置的逻辑不变，重点推荐经营确定性较高、具备一定品牌影响力的制造品牌商与具备一定保价和顺价能力的渠道品牌商，建议增持酒类、化妆品以及黄金珠宝三个产业链中的优质标的。推荐重点关注零售渠道类天虹股份（002419.SZ）、王府井（600859.SH）、永辉超市（601933.SH）、家家悦（603708.SH）、红旗连锁（002697.SZ）、华致酒行（300755.SZ）、豫园股份（600655.SH）、周大生（002867.SZ）、老凤祥（600612.SH）、中国黄金（600916.SH）；以及消费品类的上海家化（600315.SH）、珀莱雅（603605.SH）、贝泰妮（300957.SZ）、水羊股份（300740.SZ）、可靠股份（301009.SZ）、豪悦护理（605009.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、百亚股份（003006.SZ）。　　风险提示：政策推行效果不及预期的风险；消费者信心不足的风险；行业竞争加剧的风险。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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