市值被苹果超越的美国小盘股指数大举反攻，投资者看到了什么？

第一财经2023-06-07

随着美国政府债务上限危机暂时缓解，上周的非农报告也显示美国劳动力市场健康，经济“软着陆”的希望让投资者将目光转向了小盘股。此前表现低迷的罗素2000指数三个交易日上涨超6%，投资者正在寻找新的机会。小盘股受到市场青睐距离美联储6月议息会议不足两周的时间，市场将目光转向了经济前景和加息周期后续路径。结合近期美联储官员的表态，外界预期美联储可能将下一次加息的节点推迟到7月。Oanda高级市场分析师厄...

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Erlam）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，虽然5月非农就业人口超预期，考虑到失业率回升至3.7%，加上薪资增速放缓，表明劳动力市场状况有降温的迹象，这可能使美联储有理由放弃本月的加息，等待更多的数据以决定未来的政策选择。今年以来美股呈现急剧分裂的走势，由于对经济不确定性的担忧，罗素2000指数大幅落后，总市值一度被苹果一家公司超越，而大盘科技股的强势表现则助力纳指和标普500指数度过了多次危机。道琼斯市场统计显示，年内纳指和罗素2000指数之间的表现差距处于历史最高水平。如今，形势似乎在扭转，对经济前景的乐观预期令资金开始转向小盘股，地区银行股企稳反弹成为了重要推手。6月以来，罗素2000指数累计涨幅6.3%，几乎是同期三大股指涨幅的3倍。厄拉姆告诉第一财经记者，暂停加息有利于提振风险偏好，由于大盘指数整体估值处于历史高位，相对而言，周期性特征更强的小盘股更具吸引力和弹性。对于行情的延续性，LPL Financial首席全球策略师克罗斯比（Quincy Krosby）表示，美股的上涨似乎正在从科技股向外扩散，罗素2000指数反弹是积极信号，因为这与信贷市场和银行业前景密切相关，对投资者心理和市场基调非常有帮助。CI RegentAtlantic Private Wealth联合首席投资官卡匹林（Andy Kapyrin）也认为，小盘股反弹是个好兆头，这表明“市场广度更健康”。“小盘股往往处于股市风险更大的一侧，波动性更高，在我看来，当小盘股经历大幅上涨时，这表明投资者不仅渴望拥有更确定性的方向，与经济状况预期也更相关。”他补充道。厄拉姆说，对于风险资产而言，“软着陆”应该是最佳情形。受到近40年来最激进的货币政策影响，美国通胀压力正在逐步缓解，但依然远高于美联储的目标，他说：“FOMC暂时保留了进一步行动的选择，结合数据决定未来路径和积极与外界沟通将有利于避免政策过度的风险，从而减少经济不确定性，有利于板块轮动和周期性行业的复苏。”明星科技股能走多远今年以来，科技股几乎主导了美股的涨势。目前美股最大的8家科技股已经占标普500指数总市值的28%，占纳斯达克100指数的近55%。投资者正在关注本轮成长科技股的行情能走多久。个别公司的涨势正面临考验，苹果公司本周发布了首款头显Vision Pro，市场反映相对冷淡。作为人工智能的龙头企业，英伟达在上周触及1万亿市值大关后震荡下跌，区间调整幅度近9%。花旗认为，短期科技股可能面临持续调整的压力。花旗全球量化研究主管蒙塔古（Chris Montagu）表示，与所有其他地区相比，投资者在持续买入美国股市，“其中纳斯达克指数的定位是最极端的，这些多头头寸的平均利润为7.6%，已经是获利回吐概率显著增加的水平。相比之下，标普多头头寸的平均利润只有2.7%。”在人工智能热潮的推动下，上月科技类基金吸引了85亿美元的资金，创下历史新高。美银首席策略师哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）此前曾警告，人工智能领域处于“婴儿泡沫”时期。他援引了1999年的教训，当时互联网股的上涨和强劲的经济数据促使美联储重启货币紧缩政策，9个月后科技股泡沫破裂。近日，他继续重申了谨慎的观点，“科技股已经对美联储6月的暂停进行了定价，当前的逆向交易是：卖出人工智能类相关股票”。对于科技股而言，接下来美联储坚持将基金利率保持在较高水平更长时间将是潜在风险点。摩根大通策略师科拉诺维奇（Marko 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