美联储开启加息新“范式”

华尔街见闻2023-06-01

近日两位美联储官员先后发出了暂停加息的信号。费城联储主席Harker表示，可以在这一次会议上跳过加息，如果要进入一个需要继续采取更多紧缩措施的时期，可以每隔一次会议就加息一次。 5月被拜登提名为美联储副主席的Jefferson表示，美联储在即将召开的会议上维持基准利率不变的决定不应被视为已经达到了本轮周期的峰值。在收到了风声后，被视为“美联储传声筒”的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2340787236?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/72e6a226-388b-4416-a0ba-757dfcdb0ad4.jpeg?imageView2/1/w/340/h/340","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-06-01 19:19","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2340787236","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储开启加息新“范式”","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>近日两位美联储官员先后发出了暂停加息的信号。\n费城联储主席Harker表示，可以在这一次会议上跳过加息，如果要进入一个需要继续采取更多紧缩措施的时期，可以每隔一次会议就加息一次。\n5月被拜登提名为美联储副主席的Jefferson表示，美联储在即将召开的会议上维持基准利率不变的决定不应被视为已经达到了本轮周期的峰值。\n在收到了风声后，被视为“美联储传声筒”的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/member/articles/3690136\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储开启加息新“范式”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储开启加息新“范式”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-01 19:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/member/articles/3690136><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日两位美联储官员先后发出了暂停加息的信号。\n费城联储主席Harker表示，可以在这一次会议上跳过加息，如果要进入一个需要继续采取更多紧缩措施的时期，可以每隔一次会议就加息一次。\n5月被拜登提名为美联储副主席的Jefferson表示，美联储在即将召开的会议上维持基准利率不变的决定不应被视为已经达到了本轮周期的峰值。\n在收到了风声后，被视为“美联储传声筒”的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/member/articles/3690136\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/member/articles/3690136","article_id":"2340787236","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/72e6a226-388b-4416-a0ba-757dfcdb0ad4.jpeg?imageView2/1/w/340/h/340"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2340787236","pubTimestamp":1685618385,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"在不确定性面前，数据依赖的美联储选择再等一等。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"translate_title":"The Fed opens a new \"paradigm\" of rate hike","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6},"content_text":"近日两位美联储官员先后发出了暂停加息的信号。\n费城联储主席Harker表示，可以在这一次会议上跳过加息，如果要进入一个需要继续采取更多紧缩措施的时期，可以每隔一次会议就加息一次。\n5月被拜登提名为美联储副主席的Jefferson表示，美联储在即将召开的会议上维持基准利率不变的决定不应被视为已经达到了本轮周期的峰值。\n在收到了风声后，被视为“美联储传声筒”的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos认为，上述两位官员的表态意味着美联储6月可能暂停加息，然后在今年夏天晚些时候再加息。\n但与此同时，仍有包括美联储理事Bowman和波士顿联储主席Collins在内的美联储官员表达了对过高通胀的担忧。\n图：美联储官员鹰鸽分布以及投票权一览\n5月以来，从美联储官员的表态以及会议纪要来看，针对是否暂停加息存在一定分歧。\n达拉斯联储主席Logan表示，在接下来的几周里，数据可能显示可以暂缓加息，但截至目前还没有达到那个程度，6月跳过加息是合适的。\n亚特兰大联储主席Bostic认为，通胀不会迅速下降，更倾向于进一步加息而不是降息。\n克利夫兰联储主席Mester表示，如果要降低通胀至美联储2%的目标，联邦基金利率仍然没有足够收紧。\n美联储理事Waller表示，除非获得明确的证据表明通胀正在朝着2%目标下降，否则不支持停止加息，是否在6月会议上加息或跳过将取决于接下来的数据。\n鲍威尔的表态似乎又站在了鹰派的对立面，并且将重点放在了信贷收紧上。他表示，现在面临着紧缩政策所带来的滞后效应，以及近期银行压力导致的信贷收紧程度的不确定性，将观察数据和不断变化的前景，对6月是否加息做出谨慎评估。\n从联邦基金期货定价来看，在联储官员释放“跳过”加息的信号后，期货市场预计的6月加息概率已从此前的66%骤降至39%。\n\n数据来源：CME\n从去年中快速加息到年底放缓加息节奏，今年逐步变为暂停加息，现在又多了一个“跳过”，跟随经济和通胀前景的变动，美联储的政策措辞也越来越丰富。\n相较于“暂停”，“跳过”意味着即便6月不加息，7月也很有可能再度迎来一次加息，事实上类似的操作在美联储过往的加息进程中并不常见。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2340787236"}