FSMOne沈家麟：美联储下半年加息几率不大今年恒指目标为18500点

智通财经2023-06-01

智通财经APP获悉，FSMOne(香港)总经理沈家麟表示，下半年市场焦点将从通胀转为衰退。受制于通胀仍然高企，环球主要央行应对本轮下行周期的反应将会更慢，经济硬着陆风险增加。他认为美联储在下半年加息几率不大，最多加息一次，美国债息和美汇指数将会回落。股市方面，沈家麟调低港股的合理市盈率至9倍，今年恒指目标为18500点，看好价值型和防守型股票，亦看好日股前景，认为日股估值较低，另看好东协、印度、...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2340272441?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-06-01 16:48","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2340272441","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"FSMOne沈家麟：美联储下半年加息几率不大 今年恒指目标为18500点","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，FSMOne(香港)总经理沈家麟表示，下半年市场焦点将从通胀转为衰退。受制于通胀仍然高企，环球主要央行应对本轮下行周期的反应将会更慢，经济硬着陆风险增加。他认为美联储在下半年加息几率不大，最多加息一次，美国债息和美汇指数将会回落。股市方面，沈家麟调低港股的合理市盈率至9倍，今年恒指目标为18500点，看好价值型和防守型股票，亦看好日股前景，认为日股估值较低，另看好东协、印度、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/939103.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FSMOne沈家麟：美联储下半年加息几率不大 今年恒指目标为18500点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFSMOne沈家麟：美联储下半年加息几率不大 今年恒指目标为18500点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-01 16:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/939103.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，FSMOne(香港)总经理沈家麟表示，下半年市场焦点将从通胀转为衰退。受制于通胀仍然高企，环球主要央行应对本轮下行周期的反应将会更慢，经济硬着陆风险增加。他认为美联储在下半年加息几率不大，最多加息一次，美国债息和美汇指数将会回落。股市方面，沈家麟调低港股的合理市盈率至9倍，今年恒指目标为18500点，看好价值型和防守型股票，亦看好日股前景，认为日股估值较低，另看好东协、印度、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/939103.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/939103.html","article_id":"2340272441","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2340272441","pubTimestamp":1685609292,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，FSMOne(香港)总经理沈家麟表示，下半年市场焦点将从通胀转为衰退。受制于通胀仍然高企，环球主要央行应对本轮下行周期的反应将会更慢，经济硬着陆风险增加。他认为美联储在下半年加息几","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","513600":"恒生指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","02833":"恒指ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","HSI":"恒生指数","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"translate_title":"FSMOne Shen Jialin: The Fed's rate hike in the second half of the year is unlikely. This year's Hang Seng Index target is 18,500 points","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"513600":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"HSI":1,"SPY":1,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"02833":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"HHImain":0.6,"MCHmain":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，FSMOne(香港)总经理沈家麟表示，下半年市场焦点将从通胀转为衰退。受制于通胀仍然高企，环球主要央行应对本轮下行周期的反应将会更慢，经济硬着陆风险增加。他认为美联储在下半年加息几率不大，最多加息一次，美国债息和美汇指数将会回落。股市方面，沈家麟调低港股的合理市盈率至9倍，今年恒指目标为18500点，看好价值型和防守型股票，亦看好日股前景，认为日股估值较低，另看好东协、印度、消费股和健康护理板块。美股方面，沈家麟预计三大指数表现仍会继续分化，大型科技股、半导体股和Al相关股票率先反弹，部分开始超买。现时整体美股估值又再升至接近高端区间，但在经济增长放缓下，业绩有下修风险，市场仍未完全计入上述利淡因素，美股的投资价值仍未算吸引。增长股加价值股的杠杆投资策略能够应对美股的波动。环球债券部经理陈家朗表示，核心通胀仍然顽固，预计美联储或会维持高息环境更久。陈家朗指，加息周期到尾声，利率及债息均为2007年以来最高水平，因此现时是买短年期债券的黄金时刻，存款证亦是最佳投资工具之一。另外，在之前六次的加息周期中，10年期债息均在最后一次加息前见顶，故中长年期债券的吸引力已显著回升。企业债券方面，高投资级别(A级或以上)企业债券更吸引，而非AT1银行债券的投资价值亦不俗。相反，内房未见复苏，中国高收益债券前景仍不明朗，而欧美高收益债券的息差亦未能充分反映衰退风险，整体吸引力不足。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2340272441"}

FSMOne沈家麟：美联储下半年加息几率不大 今年恒指目标为18500点

精彩评论

FSMOne沈家麟：美联储下半年加息几率不大今年恒指目标为18500点