“前有狼后有虎”，今晚的PCE能否成为“救世主”？

金十数据2023-05-26

抗通胀之路“缓慢得无法令人接受”，美联储最爱的超级核心PCE能否一锤定音？美联储最看重的通胀指标——4月核心PCE物价指数将于北京时间周五20:30公布。经济学家一致预计，4月PCE年率将从3月份的4.2%上升到4.3%，而核心PCE年率将保持在4.6%不变，月率与前值0.3%持平。根据周三公布的美联储5月会议纪要，假设经济学家的估计是正确的，4月PCE并不足以让美联储松一口气，通胀仍然持续“过高...

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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=113597&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>抗通胀之路“缓慢得无法令人接受”，美联储最爱的超级核心PCE能否一锤定音？美联储最看重的通胀指标——4月核心PCE物价指数将于北京时间周五20:30公布。经济学家一致预计，4月PCE年率将从3月份的4.2%上升到4.3%，而核心PCE年率将保持在4.6%不变，月率与前值0.3%持平。根据周三公布的美联储5月会议纪要，假设经济学家的估计是正确的，4月PCE并不足以让美联储松一口气，通胀仍然持续“过高...</p>\n\n<a 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Faucher写道：“随着加息效应持续累积，经济增长正在放缓。”Faucher特别指出，美国的房市已经因为抵押贷款利率上升而大幅收缩，且企业利润下降则拖累了商业投资。不过他也表示，劳动力市场仍然表现强劲，有助于刺激消费支出的增长。PCE数据预计将保持相当稳定，而之前报告的4月CPI指数无视当月油价上涨，连续第10个月下降。但与PCE预期类似，4月份的CPI月率指向通胀升温信号，攀升了0.4%，高于0.1%的前值。核心CPI在4月份录得0.4%的月度增长。美国劳工统计局的PCE通胀指标用于追踪所有美国家庭和非营利组织的直接和间接消费，而CPI的数据来自于城市消费者。此外，CPI更重视住房成本，包括租金和业主的等值租金，由于住房成本的增加，近几个月的通胀读数更高。由于PCE数据能更准确地反映长期内的通胀走势，因此更受美联储青睐。这也是为什么经济学家们指出，今日公布的PCE报告或将“一定乾坤”，是美联储6月继续或暂停加息的关键。ING的首席国际经济学家James Knightley写道：“接下来会发生什么，将取决于数据表现和相关事件，如通胀、就业、债务上限的解决方案，以及银行业的状况和对信贷流动的影响。”在这些因素中，美联储的重点可能会放在“超级核心”PCE数据上，即从核心PCE中再减去住房租金。超级核心PCE的3月年率仅为0.24%。但是，斯道资本子公司投资组合经理Clayton Allison警告道，这种超级核心指标并不是绝对准确的。他说：“当住房租金被剔除后，该指标就剩下机票和酒店价格等更不稳定的成分，由于消费者支出有弹性，劳动力市场仍然强劲，这些成分在过去一个月可能出现增长。”除此之外，部分承担了更大权重的粘性领域的成本也有所上升，如医疗保健服务。 Allison预测，美联储将在6月FOMC会议上“跳过”加息。因为目前信贷条件正在收紧，会导致上述消费降温，因此进一步加息没有必要。但无论如何，就如Allison所说的，部分美联储官员还是希望看到明确的证据，能证明通胀肯定会回到2%目标内。美联储一再表示，他们的决定将取决于数据如何。假如PCE过高，美联储继续“放鹰”加息概率上升。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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