中金：日经指数30000点背后“泡沫”部分较少四大因素触发外国资金买入日股

智通财经2023-05-22

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，近期日股的上涨主要来源于外国投资者大幅买入的推动。1)巴菲特效应、2)东京证券交易所的政策引导、3)疫后红利的体现、4)资产配置层面的考量是近期触发外国投资者买入日股的主要因素。目前日股中“泡沫”成分相对较少，中长期3万点成为日经指数顶部的可能性或较小，但仍需留意短期内出现回调的可能性。日股的上涨、日元的贬值或能在边际上推动日本央行调整货币政策。中金主要观点...

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Four major factors trigger foreign funds to buy Japanese stocks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.88,"BRK.B":0.88},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，近期日股的上涨主要来源于外国投资者大幅买入的推动。1)巴菲特效应、2)东京证券交易所的政策引导、3)疫后红利的体现、4)资产配置层面的考量是近期触发外国投资者买入日股的主要因素。目前日股中“泡沫”成分相对较少，中长期3万点成为日经指数顶部的可能性或较小，但仍需留意短期内出现回调的可能性。日股的上涨、日元的贬值或能在边际上推动日本央行调整货币政策。中金主要观点如下：日经指数突破30000点大关，为泡沫经济后最高点近期，日本股市的代表性指数-日经指数(Nikkei 225)站上30,000点大关，为日本泡沫经济崩溃后33年以来的最高点。同时，年初以来日经指数上涨约18%，在全球主要股指中涨幅仅次于纳斯达克。四大因素触发外国资金买入日股外国投资者为何在近期选择大幅买入日本股票，该行认为有四点因素。巴菲特效应：巴菲特近期对日股的青睐带来了部分外国投资者的追随。但需留意的是巴菲特通过发行日元债来买入日股，可以有效回避日元汇率贬值风险。东京证券交易所的政策引导：东京证券交易近期要求低估值(PBR低于1倍以下)上市公司今后提出整改方案，今后日本的上市企业在边际上或更加重视资本的有效利用以及对股东的回馈，进而受到了外国投资者的青睐。疫后红利的体现：疫后复苏红利反映在了2023年的日本经济当中，同时外国入境日本游客的恢复对日本经济也有提振作用。资产配置层面的考量：从货币政策、地缘政治风险等维度出发，外国投资者或通过排除法最终买入日股，同时也有部分外国投资者担心“没有投资日股而错过本轮日股大涨”的风险，进而追随性地买入日股。今后日股是涨是跌？长期来看，该行认为本次站上30,000点同90年代日本泡沫经济时期的30,000点相比，目前日股的估值水平更为合理，经济也处于均衡发展的阶段，因此目前的日经指数30,000点背后“泡沫”的部分较少，在日本经济以及日本企业可以继续扩大发展的背景下，该行认为中长期来看30,000点成为日经指数的顶部或为小概率事件。今后，若能实现日本家庭的“从存款到投资的转变”，则或进一步助推日股。但中短期内日股仍然存在3点风险：出现过度自信的萌芽。技术指标显示日股存在超买。出口或中期成为拖累。因此短期内日股中存在一定程度回调的可能性。日股上涨对货币政策与日元汇率的影响宽松的货币政策与日元的贬值是推动日股上行的重要因素。但同时，该行认为日股若能持续上涨，今后对于货币政策以及日元汇率也会带去一定影响。日股的持续上升会改善日本金融市场的风险偏好，市场的避险情绪或明显消退，进而会推动日元汇率的贬值。该行认为当美日汇率超过140之后，日本当局或通过重新开启外汇干预的相关流程(口头干预→汇率检查→外汇干预)来牵制日元的快速走弱。最后，该行认为日元贬值速度越快，日本央行货币政策调整的可能性越大，日元汇率的超速贬值或加大日本央行在今后会议中做出调整的可能性。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2337044690"}

中金：日经指数30000点背后“泡沫”部分较少 四大因素触发外国资金买入日股

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中金：日经指数30000点背后“泡沫”部分较少四大因素触发外国资金买入日股