药明生物增长或大幅减速，分析师称其面临融资困难等风险

新浪财经2023-05-11

我给予药明生物股票的评级为“卖出”。此前在去年12月中旬，我曾表示该公司将出现潜在重估催化剂，同时市场对生物制剂外包行业存在担忧。在这篇文章中，我将分析药明生物的前景、风险因素和估值。该公司的财务前景不佳，还面临着融资困难等重大风险。此外，该公司市盈率与增长比率（PEG ratio）高达1.2倍。上述因素使得我将药明生物的评级从“持有”下调至“卖出”。根据S&P Capital IQ的数据，...

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growth of Yaoming Bio may slow down sharply, and analysts say it faces risks such as financing difficulties","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02269":0.9},"content_text":"我给予 药明生物 股票的评级为“卖出”。此前在去年12月中旬，我曾表示该公司将出现潜在重估催化剂，同时市场对生物制剂外包行业存在担忧。在这篇文章中，我将分析药明生物的前景、风险因素和估值。该公司的财务前景不佳，还面临着融资困难等重大风险。此外，该公司市盈率与增长比率（PEG ratio）高达1.2倍。上述因素使得我将药明生物的评级从“持有”下调至“卖出”。根据S&P Capital IQ的数据，过去3个月，药明生物在场外和香港上市的股票日均交易价值分别约为70万美元和1.4亿美元。1增长速度将更为温和在3月底的2022财年财报发布会上，药明生物发布了其短期和中期增长指引。具体而言，该公司预计其2023财年全年的营收和正常净收益将分别增长30%、26%。该公司还认为，在2023-2025财年期间，药明生物可以实现收入+30%的复合年增长率和26%的净利润复合年增长率。从表面上看，药明生物的中短期营收和利润增长预期似乎相当不错。事实上，该公司管理层指引表明，该公司的增长将大幅减速。根据S&P Capital IQ的历史财务数据，药明生物2019-2022财年的收入复合年增长率为+56.7%，而同一时间段的正常化收益复合年增长率为+60.0%。在收入方面，药明生物过去几年的收入受到疫情带来的需求提振的影响，这一点是不可持续的。该公司在其2022财年业绩电话会议上指出，药明生物“抓住了新冠疫情带来的机会”，实现了“过去3年（2020-2022年）的快速增长”，该公司同时强调“从高收入到低收入的过渡”终将不可避免地发生。另外，有多种因素将对药明生物的未来利润率和盈利增长产生负面影响。首先，药明生物选择优先考虑市场份额的增长而不是盈利能力的提高。根据该公司管理层在最近的年度财报电话会议上的言论，药明生物的价格基本保持在同一水平，而同行的价格则纷纷上涨了10%-15%。这意味着该公司已决定消化成本上升带来的影响，以保持价格竞争力，并试图以牺牲盈利为代价获得市场份额。药明生物的定价策略能否成功还有待观察，但该公司的利润率和利润将首当其冲受到影响。其次，由于今年德国、美国和爱尔兰的新工厂投产，药明生物有可能受到更高的启动费用和经营杠杆的影响。例如，该公司在其2022财年业绩发布会上表示，爱尔兰新工厂的目标是最早到2025年实现65%的利用率。第三，该公司需要在未来几年将更大比例的现金流分配给维持资本支出。如上所述，由于疫情提振了需求，药明生物在过去几年的业务表现非常好，这意味着此前该公司的大部分设施都接近满负荷运行，其维护时间有限。换句话说，药明生物必须经历一段较长时间的停工，因为该公司的一些现有设施将在未来不断进行维护。2严峻的融资环境假设某些风险因素成为现实，未来几年药明生物的营收和净利润增长可能会比该公司目前的指引目标更低。第一个关键风险因素是严峻的融资环境对药明生物客户的不利影响。利率环境加上最近的银行倒闭，无疑使企业获得融资变得更具挑战性，如果药明生物的客户陷入融资问题，这可能会导致该公司的销售额低于预期。2023年3月OCBC Investment Research的一篇未公开报告提到，“中小型生物行业客户”占“药明生物2021年销售额的三分之二”。第二个风险因素与地缘问题有关，这已经在一定程度上影响了药明生物的业务和财务业绩；3估值根据S&P Capital 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