银河证券：煤炭板块供需格局偏弱看好山西焦煤(000983.SZ)、中国旭阳集团(01907)

智通财经2023-04-03

智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研报表示，煤炭板块当前供需格局偏弱，本周动力煤及炼焦煤价以下跌为主，焦炭价格维持稳定。银河证券认为，煤价的调整空间有限，淡季不淡仍有可能，个股推荐焦煤龙头山西焦煤(000983.SZ)、焦炭煤化工行业龙头中国旭阳集团(01907)、动力煤龙头中国神华(601088.SH)、中煤能源(601898.SH)、陕西煤业(601225.SH)、兖矿能源(600188.SH)...

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SZ) and China Xuyang Group (01907)","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161032":1,"000983":1,"01907":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研报表示，煤炭板块当前供需格局偏弱，本周动力煤及炼焦煤价以下跌为主，焦炭价格维持稳定。银河证券认为，煤价的调整空间有限，淡季不淡仍有可能，个股推荐焦煤龙头山西焦煤(000983.SZ)、焦炭煤化工行业龙头中国旭阳集团(01907)、动力煤龙头中国神华(601088.SH)、中煤能源(601898.SH)、陕西煤业(601225.SH)、兖矿能源(600188.SH)。银河证券指出，需求方面，根据近期中电联预测，2023年全社会用电量将达到约9.15万亿千瓦时，一季度增速将超过3%，全年增速在6%左右，2022年，我国全社会用电量同比增长3.6%，电力需求2023年较2022年预期向好，支撑动力煤需求维持高位；地产产业链方面，根据克而瑞发布的2023年3月房企销售情况，TOP100房企前3月累计销售金额同比增速止降回正，同比增长2.2%，较前2月增速加快14.7pct；3月单月销售金额同比维持上升趋势，同比上升28.7%，较2月增速加快16.9pct，地产链持续修复中，银河对煤焦钢产业链维持乐观预期。银河证券的主要观点如下：动力煤本周动力煤港口价继续下降，3月31日，京唐港山西产Q5500动力末煤平仓价格为1080元/吨，环比下降20元，周降幅为1.8%；，各主产地坑口煤价环比上周下降20-30元；国际动力煤价涨跌互现，纽卡斯尔港口价格呈现反弹；本周各港口持续累库，秦皇岛港煤炭库存/CCTD主流港口库存/广州港集团煤炭库存/长江口煤炭库存环比上周分别+6.2%/+0.5%/-1.3%/+4.6%。电厂方面，库存与日耗同向上涨。运价与调度方面，国内煤炭海运价回调超10%，国际海运费指数除巴拿马型运费指数外均继续回调。炼焦煤炼焦煤价格方面本周表现为下降。港口方面，3月31日，京唐港山西产主焦煤库提价为2470元/吨，环比下降1.2%；出矿价方面，山西古交/灵石/孝义/柳林主焦煤出矿价本周分别下降50-130元不等，山西/河北/内蒙/河南产炼焦煤平均价分别下降0-80元不等；国际焦煤价格以下降为主，近期表现相对弱势。库存方面，焦煤库存稳中趋降，总体焦煤库存本周呈现微降状态，且大幅低于近五年历史同期值。焦炭焦炭港口及产地价格本周均环比持平。库存方面本周略有累库，截至3月31日，主要港口/样本钢厂/焦化企业（230家）本周分别为178.3/653.9/66万吨，环比-2.2%/+1.4%/+4.3%。钢焦企业开工率方面，唐山钢厂高炉/全国螺纹钢主要钢厂/华北地区独立焦化厂开工率分别为58.7%/49.5%/77.7%，全国高炉炼铁产能利用率(247家)为90.56%，环比提升1.28pct，显示焦炭需求端受下游钢企拉动继续稳中有升。Myspic综合钢价指数3月31日为159.7，周度环比上涨1.25%。风险提示：行业面临有效需求不足背景下煤价大幅下跌的风险，以及行业内国企改革不及预期的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2324850128"}

银河证券：煤炭板块供需格局偏弱 看好山西焦煤(000983.SZ)、中国旭阳集团(01907)

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银河证券：煤炭板块供需格局偏弱看好山西焦煤(000983.SZ)、中国旭阳集团(01907)