摩根大通“温馨提示”：从美债反弹中赚的钱该“落袋为安”了

华尔街见闻2023-03-16

美联储最新利率决议下周来袭，在本周美债反弹中一雪前耻的债券投资者是时候“落袋为安”了？至少摩根大通和道明证券是这么认为的，这两家机构表示，由于美联储下周可能仍会收紧政策，是时候平仓美债多头头寸了。摩根大通Jay Barry分析师团队在近期给客户的报告中写道：我们认为美联储还没有完成任务，我们预计下周再次加息25个基点，5月份进行最后一次加息。根据道明证券最近一份报告，该行结束了2月份...

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\"safe\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":1,"BND":1,"TLT":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"IEI":0.6},"content_text":"美联储最新利率决议下周来袭，在本周美债反弹中一雪前耻的债券投资者是时候“落袋为安”了？\n至少摩根大通和道明证券是这么认为的，这两家机构表示，由于美联储下周可能仍会收紧政策，是时候平仓美债多头头寸了。\n摩根大通Jay Barry分析师团队在近期给客户的报告中写道：\n\n我们认为美联储还没有完成任务，我们预计下周再次加息25个基点，5月份进行最后一次加息。\n\n根据道明证券最近一份报告，该行结束了2月份启动的10年期美债交易，当时收益率为3.77% ，而本周收益率跌至3.46% 。道明此前预计，由于美国经济可能陷入衰退，美债收益率将会下降。\n道明证券Priya Misra策略师团队在报告中说，过去一周的银行业动乱可能会令衰退提前到来，并且更加严重。“不过，通胀率仍然很高，我们认为，美联储可能会在下周加息，或者至少承诺未来会进一步加息。”\n上周，SVB银行破产引爆美国银行业危机，衰退恐惧四起，美联储加息预期大大降温，加上欧洲百年银行瑞信股价崩跌的影响，美债近几日大涨，两年期美债收益率本周以来暴跌近70个基点。\n\n在债市强势反弹之际，一些世界顶级基金经理本周声称，他们仍保持着巨额利润。\n不过，一些投资者怀疑此轮反弹是否超出了基本面。\n早前公布的CPI和PPI数据显示，美国通胀依然高企，上周美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，他对下周加息50基点的可能性持开放态度。\n芝商所美联储观察工具显示，美联储下周加息25基点已经升至64%，而不加息的可能性为36%，远低于利率期货市场罕见熔断后的50%。\n\n这意味着，押注美联储下周暂停加息的交易员面临巨大风险。\n“我不想追逐这波债市涨势，这看起来很愚蠢，”彭德尔集团收益策略主管Amy Xie Patrick表示。她在本月早些时候做多了债券，但现在又怀疑美联储可能不会降息。她说：\n\n我现在更接近中立态度，我一直在撤回筹码，只根据收益率曲线变动投资久期产品。\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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