共和党“不争气”，市场很失望

华尔街见闻2022-11-10

美国中选还未落下帷幕，但共和党所期盼的“红色浪潮”并未到来。中期选举过半，共和党表现不及市场预期，11月9日美国股指开盘走低，标普500指数下跌2.08%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.37%。截至美国当地时间9日18时，共和党在众议院获得201席，参议院获得49席；民主党在众议院获182席，参议院获48席。尽管共和党当前在夺取众议院控制权竞争中处于领先地位，一些竞争激烈且关键的竞选也尚未...

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Donabedian表示，中期选举“大局可能不会有太大变化”：如果共和党人在参众两院获得哪怕是微弱的多数，那么某些政策问题就会被排除在外……我们知道会是什么样子，所以让我们回到通胀、美联储和企业收益的问题上来。Janus Henderson全球资产配置主管Ash alankar说：一方面，随着共和党获胜，企业、个人和资本利得税上调的可能性降低，这将有利于所有股票……然而，另一方面，不增税和减税政策延长的前景都有可能引发通胀，因为私营部门有更多的税后可支配收入。如果共和党获胜，总体上将对股市有利，但通胀风险不太可能减轻或加速。仍可阻碍立法议程不过，尽管共和党未能取得“压倒性胜利”，控制众议院也足以对拜登未来两年的立法议程造成阻碍。高盛经济研究部的Alec Phillips表示，尽管共和党表现不及预期，但国会的分裂仍在预期之中：虽然民主党的表现超出预期，民主党控制参议院将是一个意外，但最终的结果似乎是分裂，政策影响与共和党在参众两院占多数的情况大致相似。如果共和党赢得众议院多数席位，参议院控制权就不那么重要了。在分裂的国会和共和党控制的国会之间有两个普遍的区别：首先，参议院以简单多数批准总统提名，因此民主党的继续控制将限制共和党在未来两年对拜登总统提名的影响。其次，在分裂的国会中通过立法将比在共和党控制的国会中更难，尽管在任何一种情况下都需要两党支持(因为拜登可以在任何一种情况下否决，而共和党人将缺乏2/3的赞成票来推翻)，所以立法活动的数量可能是相似的。2011年和2013年，共和党控制的众议院和民主党控制的参议院主导的债务上限不确定性扰乱了金融市场，导致政府大幅削减支出。明年可能会出现类似的情况，尽管民主党参议院可能努力降低削减支出的规模。但针对潜在衰退的立法也会更加困难。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":664296861,"gmtCreate":1668048521453,"gmtModify":1668048523918,"author":{"id":"3562228734380002","authorId":"3562228734380002","name":"gbcgblgbd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8faf102dd5e0c9e7cc1ae34839ec2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哈哈哈abc","listText":"哈哈哈abc","text":"哈哈哈abc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664296861","repostId":2282374041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7731808,"gmtCreate":1668048960157,"gmtModify":1668048973714,"authorId":3562228734380002,"author":{"id":3562228734380002,"authorId":3562228734380002,"name":"gbcgblgbd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8faf102dd5e0c9e7cc1ae34839ec2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":664296861,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"呦呦呦","text":"呦呦呦","html":"呦呦呦"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":664296335,"gmtCreate":1668048474927,"gmtModify":1668048477894,"author":{"id":"3562228734380002","authorId":"3562228734380002","name":"gbcgblgbd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8faf102dd5e0c9e7cc1ae34839ec2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哈哈哈","listText":"哈哈哈","text":"哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664296335","repostId":2282374041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7731852,"gmtCreate":1668050394388,"gmtModify":1668050409037,"authorId":3562228734380002,"author":{"id":3562228734380002,"authorId":3562228734380002,"name":"gbcgblgbd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8faf102dd5e0c9e7cc1ae34839ec2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":664296335,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"哇哇哇","text":"哇哇哇","html":"哇哇哇"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":664299439,"gmtCreate":1668047676321,"gmtModify":1668047678877,"author":{"id":"3562228734380002","authorId":"3562228734380002","name":"gbcgblgbd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8faf102dd5e0c9e7cc1ae34839ec2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"abc","listText":"abc","text":"abc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664299439","repostId":2282374041,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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