鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险

金十数据2022-08-18

其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

宝爷_7909
2022-08-18
宝爷_7909
收紧

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2260735978?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e2a5c057f0548b7c94dbc4f59d7c1c","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-08-18 07:20","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2260735978","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xnew_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鸽派？美联储会议纪要：年内首提“过度紧缩”风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 07:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4534","symbol_name":"瑞士信贷持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=98687&type=news","article_id":"2260735978","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e2a5c057f0548b7c94dbc4f59d7c1c"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260735978","pubTimestamp":1660778456,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"xnew_highlight","name":"金十要闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"translate_title":"Doves? Minutes of the Fed meeting: The risk of \"excessive tightening\" was first mentioned in the year","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0847163a25f882d92668b81a3ef62363","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"其实，美联储会议纪要里还藏了几只“鹰”。北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储公布了7月FOMC会议纪要。美联储在7月会议上连续第二个月将基准利率上调75个基点，这是自1980年代初以来最快的收紧步伐。会议纪要揭示了连续加息75个基点背后的考量。纪要显示，委员们认为持续加息是合适的，委员们看到了公众质疑美联储的抗通胀决心这一潜在的风险。但同时，许多委员认为，存在货币政策紧缩幅度超过必要水平的风险，加息步伐将在某个时候放缓。这是美联储今年以来首次提到“过度紧缩”的风险。 委员们指出，近期有关通胀预期的数据与2%的长期预期“一致”。一些与会者表示，政策利率必须达到“足够限制性”的水平，才能控制通胀，并在一段时间内保持这一水平。这可能暗示，当先前收紧政策的滞后影响显现时，采取更多紧缩措施的理由将会减弱，但官员们不打算在近期降息，而是选择保持利率稳定，直到通胀明显下行。与会者强调，需求放缓将在降低通胀方面发挥重要作用。与会者一致认为，“几乎没有证据”表明通胀压力正在减弱，需要相当长的时间才能解决问题。劳动力市场的强劲表现表明，经济活动比疲软的二季度GDP数据所暗示的更为强劲，这提高了GDP数据向上修正的可能性。同时，没有迹象表明（至少没看到美联储官员）对房地产市场的金融风险表示担忧。对于住宅房地产价格持续上涨，委员们指出，尽管估值有所提高，但抵押贷款承销标准比之前的房价周期更强。纪要公布后，市场将其解读为鸽派，但行情整体没有太大的反应，美元指数短线走低，现货黄金短线小幅走高转涨，美股三大股指曾抹平日内多数跌幅但最终收跌，美国10年期国债收益率小幅下跌。联邦基金期货10月合约仍停留在97.05，使市场在美联储下月会议上加息50或75个基点之间保持微妙平衡。两年期国债收益率跌至3.29%左右，仍较昨日3.16%的低点大幅上升。机构指出，虽然市场反应好像是把美联储会议纪要解读成鸽派，市场认为，小幅加息甚至降息的可能性是不可避免的，但不确定这种理解对不对。可以肯定的是，美联储重申了关于未来应放慢紧缩步伐的说法，而且谈到了存在过度紧缩的风险。但有个地方要注意，经济增长势头相当疲软，下半年增长率将低于趋势水平。不过就目前而言，美联储对于这些似乎并不在意。虽然经济数据的不确定性的确使过度紧缩成为一种风险，但如果公众不认可美联储适当收紧政策的决心，那么高通胀有可能根深蒂固，成为一个更危险的“重大风险”。换言之，美联储淡化收紧货币政策的承诺恰恰说明其更有可能把抗通胀这件事做到底。接下来，市场需要看下一个通胀指标以及8月就业报告的情况，才能真正预测美联储在9月份将采取什么行动。目前的通胀下降速度和劳动力市场尚未降温是大家都认为需要警惕的关键问题。有分析师指出，不要把最近石油和其他一些大宗商品价格的下跌作为通胀持续走低的基础。包括美国前财政部长萨默斯和诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼在内的观察人士在7月份CPI报告出炉前警告称，美联储不应对整体通胀放缓感到兴奋。会议纪要显示，美联储确实在保持警惕。值得注意的是，美联储官员们将有机会在8月25日至27日于怀俄明州举行的杰克逊霍尔央行年会期间就前景发表新观点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":687350988,"gmtCreate":1660781084749,"gmtModify":1660785613483,"author":{"id":"3557141256992492","authorId":"3557141256992492","name":"宝爷_7909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00075fad016a192fbc5c30ecbc33ab63","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"收紧","listText":"收紧","text":"收紧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687350988","repostId":2260735978,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2260735978"}