NIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead

Seekingalpha2022-06-28

There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled...

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Cheryi
2022-06-29
Cheryi
Great

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(NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NIO.SI","symbol_name":"蔚来","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead","article_id":"2246206338","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246206338","pubTimestamp":1656399806,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several ne","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"translate_title":"蔚来：一条不稳定但非常有利可图的前路","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.6,"NIO.SI":0.6,"NIO":1},"content_text":"There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled as I write, making it a terrific performer for those that got in near the low.The quick jump in price does make me believe there will be an eventual sell-off as investors take some profits off the table, which could further drop if temporary bad news hits the stock near the time of a sell-off; the most likely being another shutdown in Shanghai.But even in that worst-case scenario, the downward pressure on the price of NIO would only be temporary because the narrative surrounding the company has been consistently improving over the last month or so.I believe the worst is behind NIO because the negative catalysts have already been baked into its share price. For that reason, it should enjoy steady and consistent growth going forward, although it will likely be a bumpy ride. Patient investors should generate some solid returns over the next couple of years and further out if there are no macro-economic or significant geopolitical events that impact the global economy and the EV sector.How to view the temporary macro challenges NIO facesI always ask myself two questions when looking at a company that appears to have been oversold like NIO, and they're these: has anything changed in the fundamentals of the sector, or has anything changed in the fundamentals of the company? The answer to both of these questions for NIO is no.The EV sector is on a long-term growth trajectory, and NIO has positioned itself, through the increase of its production capacity and the introduction of new models, to take advantage of the EV trend.Even with chips shortages, government shutdowns in China, temporary negative sentiment concerning China-based companies in general, the weakening global economy, delisting concerns in the U.S., and some inflationary pressure on commodities and chips, NIO is still managing to work its way out of short-term delivery challenges as demand for its vehicles continue to remain high.Concerning things it has control over, it is raising prices and boosting production in order to mitigate increasing prices for commodities and chips. It has also listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange to assuage concerns over possibly being delisted in the U.S.It also continues to enlarge its charging and swapping network. At the end of the first quarter, it had over 960 battery swapping stations installed in 197 cities. It has \"829 supercharging stations and 1,140 destination chargers.\"As for chip shortages, management stated in its latest earnings report that the chip shortage in June is related less to previous chip supply constraints and more to the boost in production capacity; for that reason the company believes chip supplies can be managed.Positive catalysts for NIOAmong the positive catalysts for the company are the attractive valuation as a result of being oversold, increasing deliveries, expanding model portfolio, its boost in production, and the growth of its battery swap stations.Initial response to the company's latest earnings report was a sell-off, as investors reacted to contracting margins coming from higher commodity and chip prices. But once the market absorbed the overall report and more numbers have come in, investors started looking at deliveries and the expected increase in production going forward.For example, in May NIO boosted deliveries to 7,024, bring its total for the year to 37,866, up almost 12 percent year-over-year. Revenue jumped to $1.56 billion, a gain of 24 percent from 1Q 2021.The point here is investors are starting to look at revenue and deliveries more than the past negative catalysts, as I mentioned earlier, have been already baked into the share price of NIO.Other positive catalysts include the recent launch of its highly anticipated ES7. Deliveries for the crossover are scheduled for August 28th. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated in a symposium that it is researching ways to boost its manufacturing sector as a result of the impact from COVID-19 restrictions. It is believed the EV sector in China will be a beneficiary of the new policies.Last, China's State Council is expected to retain tax breaks already in place in order to stimulate demand for EV sales. Council members believe the tax cuts would generate $29.8 billion in consumer spending on the sector.All of these things are tailwinds for NIO as it continues growth momentum.Probable taking of profits from NIO stockIf we see any negative catalyst that spooks NIO shareholders, I believe we'll see a fairly quick sell-off in shares in order to protect profits. To get an idea of the type of numbers we're looking at in a sell-off, we'll look at the last couple of months when the share price of NIO corrected.On May 4 traded at a little over $18.00 per share as a high, and by May 12 dropped to a 52-week low of $11.67. On May 20 it traded at a high of around $17.50, and by May 25 fell to $14.00 per share. More recently, on June 8 it traded at close to $20.45, and on June 13 dropped to a little under $16.00 per share. Since it dropped to about $16.00 per share on June 13, the price has soared to over $23.00 per share on June 23. Since May 12 the share price of NIO has about doubled.My thought here is anything that causes the market to produce fear will result in some quick offloading of shares in NIO. If there is a negative catalyst combined with taking profits, the share price will take a significant hit, but I don't see it lingering for long. I believe NIO has turned the corner and any negative news will only have a temporal effect on the company. As mentioned above, everything negative has already been priced into the share price of NIO, and the only thing that will potentially disrupt its momentum is another prolonged shutdown of Shanghai in response to a COVID outbreak. But again, this does nothing to change the fundamentals of the EV market, neither the fundamentals of NIO as a company.I'm bringing this up because shareholders shouldn't be too concerned about this in any way. My point of view is NIO is in no danger in the short or long term, and the only thing that negative catalysts can do is extend the time it takes for the company to resume extraordinary growth.ConclusionSince I see NIO's share price being disproportionately punished in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and concerns, it is very likely to outperform its peers in the near term as it moves back into alignment with its strong fundamentals.Further out, it is wisely building out production capacity as it introduces new models, positioning itself for a strong growth spurt as consumers start to spend again.With supply chains improving and the company boosting the price of its models in response to increase in the price of commodities and chips, it is improving its margins and bottom line under difficult circumstances. That said, some of its pre-orders in the past will take a hit until the company works through its inventory and fills those orders.My thesis is it's not a matter of if, but when NIO starts to regain strong growth momentum as it increases deliveries from strong consumer demand and larger production capacity.As we've seen after it hit its 52-week low on May 12, it has already doubled from that level. Once market sentiment improves even more, it's going to go a lot higher in the long haul.The key to me is to ignore the volatility in the EV sector and NIO's share price, focusing rather on the way the company has positioned itself to grow long into the future.There is no doubt in my mind that patient investors are going to be handsomely rewarded.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":683493531,"gmtCreate":1656452733325,"gmtModify":1704864827977,"author":{"id":"3568940106394782","authorId":"3568940106394782","name":"Cheryi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568940106394782","idStr":"3568940106394782"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683493531","repostId":2246206338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2246206338","isCrawlerRequest":true}