Oracle Corporation -- Moody's places Oracle's ratings under review for downgrade

Moody's2021-12-21

Rating Action: Moody's places Oracle's ratings under review for downgradeGlobal Credit Research - 20 Dec 2021New York, December 20, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") placed Oracle ...

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The acquisition is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to close in 2022.On Review for Downgrade:..Issuer: Oracle Corporation....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper (Local Currency), Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently P-2....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently Baa2Outlook Actions:..Issuer: Oracle Corporation....Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From StableRATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGSMoody's placed Oracle's ratings under review for downgrade to reflect the likelihood of a meaningful deterioration in Oracle's cash balances and financial leverage after the acquisition of Cerner. Governance considerations, specifically, Oracle's substantial deterioration in credit metrics as a result of its aggressive shareholder returns in prior periods and now with the proposed acquisition, are key drivers of the rating action. Oracle has not indicated the amounts of cash and incremental borrowings it plans to use to finance the acquisition. Prior to the announcement to acquire Cerner, Oracle did not have any publicly articulated medium or long-term financial policy goals. As part of the acquisition announcement, Oracle indicated that it anticipates retaining an investment grade rating. Moody's recognizes that Oracle's approximately $10 billion of free cash flow (after dividends and pro forma for the acquisition of Cerner) and growing EBITDA provide strong capacity to delever after the acquisition, if the company prioritizes deleveraging. Given the purchase price of the acquisition, Moody's believes that it could take 2 years or more for Oracle to fully offset the initially credit-negative impact of the Cerner acquisition.Moody's analyst Raj Joshi said, \"The acquisition of Cerner will strengthen Oracle's position in the healthcare IT industry, a large industry vertical with strong long-term growth prospects. If the acquisition is approved by regulatory authorities without meaningful constraints and Oracle integrates the acquisition effectively, we expect Oracle to generate substantial revenue synergies from the combination over time. However, the acquisition will meaningfully weaken Oracle's financial profile initially and increase execution risk.\"Cerner has more than 25% market share of the U.S. acute care Electronic Health Records market, behind industry leader Epic Systems. The healthcare industry has lagged other industries in adopting cloud computing, but it is pivoting to the cloud. Oracle's large sales and marketing resources and partner network globally should accelerate Cerner's revenue growth. Cerner has a large repository of clinical, administrative and financial data through its software offerings. The acquisition will generate large opportunities to cross-sell Oracle's cloud services, data management and analytics software, and other application software into Cerner's installed base.The acquisition of Cerner will be significantly larger than any of Oracle's prior acquisitions and increase execution risks. Cerner is undergoing operational restructuring and faces strong competition. Moody's believes that any revenue synergies will take time to materialize because sales cycles for healthcare IT solutions are long. The health care and health care IT industries have been subject to increasing regulations and the U.S. government's focus on increasing interoperability of information systems to drive innovation creates risks and opportunities.Prior to considering the effects of the Cerner acquisition, Oracle's senior unsecured rating was weakly positioned in the Baa2 rating category, with limited cushion to absorb any increase in debt as a result of the company's large share repurchases. Moody's had expected that Oracle would maintain total debt to EBITDA (Moody's adjusted) in the low 4x times and cash and marketable securities to total adjusted debt ratio of greater than 20%, while generating free cash flow relative to total adjusted debt in the low teens percentages over the next 12 to 24 months.The ratings review will focus on: (i) Capital structure and debt maturity profile upon the close of the acquisition; (ii) the credit metrics Oracle will target; (iii) the company's specific plans to reduce leverage and/or to restore cash position after the acquisition and the duration it needs to achieve these targets; and, (iv) Moody's assessment of financial flexibility Oracle may need to accommodate execution risk in integrating its largest acquisition coupled with the potential for higher investments to support its growing cloud businesses.Moody's could confirm Oracle's Baa2 rating if the company commits to a credible plan and uses its deleveraging capacity such that it restores its credit metrics to the levels that underpin its Baa2 rating over the 18 to 24 months following the acquisition. A potential downgrade of the ratings could be limited to one notch if Oracle commits to reducing a meaningful portion of the incremental debt it takes to consummate the acquisition of Cerner.The principal methodology used in these ratings was Software Industry published in August 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1130740. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.Oracle Corporation is a leading provider of business applications software, Information Technology systems, and cloud infrastructure and platform services.REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Raj Joshi VP - Senior Credit Officer Corporate Finance Group Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Lenny J. Ajzenman Associate Managing Director Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376 Client Service: 1 212 553 1653 © 2021 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. 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