外媒头条：深陷通胀危机！小摩警告股债齐跌风险升温

新浪美股2021-10-08

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、市场坚信美联储11月减码除非就业数据比预期差太多 2、沃顿商学院教授：美联储或比预期更快缩减购债这可能会吓坏市场 3、摩根大通料股债齐跌风险升温因通胀意外或持续到2022年 4、IMF敦促各国政府制定财政计划以控制疫情债务 5、看准能源股上涨的摩根大通策略师称其升势尚未结束 6、IBM：所有美国员工必须在12月8日前...

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Xiaomo warned that the risk of falling stocks and bonds is heating up","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d2eb8ff025422d1c2a8037d2d0747a","symbols_score_info":{"159940":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、市场坚信美联储11月减码 除非就业数据比预期差太多\n\n\n2、沃顿商学院教授：美联储或比预期更快缩减购债 这可能会吓坏市场\n\n\n3、摩根大通料股债齐跌风险升温 因通胀意外或持续到2022年\n\n\n4、IMF敦促各国政府制定财政计划以控制疫情债务\n\n\n5、看准能源股上涨的摩根大通策略师称其升势尚未结束\n\n\n6、IBM：所有美国员工必须在12月8日前完成新冠疫苗接种 否则面临无薪停职\n\n\n市场坚信美联储11月减码 除非就业数据比预期差太多\n20万！根据调查的八位策略师，如果美国非农就业人数是这个数，投资者将质疑经济健康状况，并使美国国债收益率近期内走低。这也会导致市场提高对美联储推迟减码或放慢减码步伐的押注。然而经济学家对非农就业人数的预估中值达50万，是这个数字的两倍多。\n虽然多数投资者认为美联储减码几无悬念，但还要等美联储明确减码时间和速度。供应链瓶颈和预计11月启动的减码带来了通胀压力，已经导致美债收益率势将延续第三季度的涨势。这意味着美债在就业数据发布后回落的门槛很高。\n“如果数字比普遍预期高或低30万，可能引起美国国债反应，”$法国兴业银行(0J6Y.UK)$美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa表示。\n\n沃顿商学院教授：美联储或比预期更快缩减购债 这可能会吓坏市场\n沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）表示，由于通胀飙升，美联储可能会被迫以比预期更快的速度缩减购债，这可能会吓到市场。\n西格尔周四表示：“我认为通胀将比美联储认为的要高得多。我认为美联储将面临压力，不仅是开始缩减——他们将会宣布这一措施——而且缩减速度要比市场想象的要快。这就是我认为市场会有点受到惊讶和挑战的地方。”\n为了在新冠疫情期间支撑经济，美联储每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券。美联储在9月份的政策会议上表示，将开始撤回部分支持。\n美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，决策者们预计疫情时期的债券购买计划将在2022年年中左右结束。\n西格尔认为，在价格压力不断上升的情况下，美联储可能会被迫采取更积极的行动。他预计将于下周发布的美国9月消费者价格指数的涨幅将超出预期。\n\n摩根大通料股债齐跌风险升温 因通胀意外或持续到2022年\n摩根大通分析师认为，持续的通货膨胀可能引发债券和股票同步下跌，从而让那些使用固定收益证券来保护投资组合免受股市下跌影响的投资者倍感头痛。\n9月份债券市场的抛售恰逢标普500指数下跌4.8%，这种齐跌走势打击了多资产投资者。摩根大通追踪的一篮子风险平价基金当月下跌3.6%。贝莱德的60/40目标配置基金下挫2.5%，创下3月份以来的最大单月跌幅。\n这种痛苦可能还没有结束。\n摩根大通策略师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou等最近给客户的一份报告中指出，随着供应瓶颈和大宗商品价格持续上涨，通胀意外可能会持续到2022年。\n\nIMF敦促各国政府制定财政计划以控制疫情债务\n国际货币基金组织（IMF）周四在其《财政监测报告》中表示，在为抗击新冠疫情而采取前所未有的财政刺激措施后，各国政府应开始计划恢复更可持续的预算，并制定赢得投资者信任的政策。\n但IMF表示，每个国家都必须根据自身情况确定适当的财政整顿时机和步伐。财政计划需要考虑疫情的发展阶段、现有的财政脆弱性、经济创伤的风险、人口老龄化带来的压力以及发展需求等。\nIMF副财政事务主任Paulo Mauro表示：“有些国家疫情仍在肆虐，因此优先事项仍然是卫生紧急情况”，其他经济活动正在回暖的国家“可以开始考虑亦逐渐减少对经济提供的财政支持的程度”。\n\n看准能源股上涨的摩根大通策略师称其升势尚未结束\n在2021年初，Dubravko Lakos-Bujas是罕见的能源股多头之一。在这些股票飙升近50%之后，这位摩根大通策略师表示，其涨势还有进一步空间。\n石油和天然气生产商是标普500指数今年表现最佳的行业之一，Devon Energy Corp．和Marathon Oil Corp． 都上涨超过一倍。不过能源股的看跌押注也在增加，因投资者仍对这类股票持怀疑态度。 Lakos-Bujas和他的团队则指出，这种厌恶情绪与行业的前景改善形成鲜明对比--这将导致估值提升和股价追赶基本面。\n“我们预计该行业将得到重新评估，因为企业会发布强劲业绩，提高指引，并重申专注于股东资本回报而不是无利可图的市场份额增长，”上述策略师们在周四的客户报告中写道，“在大多数资产由于利率下降和流动性充裕而普遍得到重新估值的情况下，能源股仍有几年的非线性盈利增长潜力，并且目前估值有吸引力。”\n\nIBM：所有美国员工必须在12月8日前完成新冠疫苗接种 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