LIVE MARKETS-Nasdaq on the ropes vs commodities?


* S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures edge up, Dow futures slip

* Sep NY FED Mnftg > est; Aug import prices MM < est

* Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.4%

* Dollar, gold slip; crude, bitcoin gain

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.28%

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The Nasdaq Composite relative to the Refinitiv/CoreCommodity CRB index appears to be at an important juncture on the charts:

The Nasdaq/CRB ratio, on a weekly basis, hit a record high of 80.54 in early November last year. Since then, however, the tech-laden Nasdaq has underperformed the index of materials and things. In fact, the ratio hit a 14-month low at 65.69 in early June.

Although it has since clawed its way back up some and is now at 67.88, the ratio has been flirting with what appears to be significant support in the form of a log-scale trend line from its 2011 trough, now around 67.85, as well as the 100-week moving average $(WMA.AU)$, now around 67.30.

The ratio did fiddle with the support line in late 2018. However, with the market's December bottom that year, it quickly reversed to the upside without breaking the 100-WMA. The trendline then contained weakness in 2019, and again in early 2020.

Of note, the ratio has been on a record run versus its 100-WMA. In fact, it is on pace for its 512th-straight weekly close above this long-term moving average. This current run above the 100-WMA absolutely dwarfs the ratio's 155-week streak that lasted into the Y2K "tech-bubble" top.

However, the ratio is now only 0.8% above the 100-WMA, which is the tightest disparity since it crossed back above it in early December 2011.

Thus, it may now be time for tech , and FANGs

for that matter, to once again step up in order to underpin a renewed Nasdaq advance relative to commodities.

A ratio weekly close below support can add credence to the view that a sea change in trend is underway. A deeper decline to threaten the March 2000 high at 28.9 could see the ratio lose more than half its value from current levels.

(Terence Gabriel)



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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article represent the personal views of the author and do not constitute investment advice from this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, nor does it assume responsibility for any losses arising from the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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