京东Q1财报有惊喜？华尔街：核心业务复苏叠加外卖业务减亏

华尔街见闻04-17

多重积极信号正在汇聚，华尔街主要投行在同一天对京东集团作出集体看多表态。据追风交易台，巴克莱、摩根大通和汇丰三家机构于4月14日相继发布研究报告，一致看好京东基本面改善趋势。三家机构的共同逻辑聚焦于两条主线：其一，一季度消费及电商大盘环境改善，京东日用百货与平台服务等高毛利业务呈现超预期的增长势头；其二，外卖新业务亏损环比收窄趋势日趋明朗，监管层持续向市场参与者释放信号要求回归理性竞争，进一步强化...

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Wall Street: Recovery of Core Business Superimposed Loss Reduction of Takeaway Business","themeId":"7a51113e1c9c65f2a488dae5d57095a5","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2efe9196b8e48812799dc90810cdf7d1","symbols_score_info":{"09618":1.5,"JD":1.5},"content_text":"多重积极信号正在汇聚，华尔街主要投行在同一天对京东集团作出集体看多表态。据追风交易台，巴克莱、摩根大通和汇丰三家机构于4月14日相继发布研究报告，一致看好京东基本面改善趋势。三家机构的共同逻辑聚焦于两条主线：其一，一季度消费及电商大盘环境改善，京东日用百货与平台服务等高毛利业务呈现超预期的增长势头；其二，外卖新业务亏损环比收窄趋势日趋明朗，监管层持续向市场参与者释放信号要求回归理性竞争，进一步强化了亏损收敛的确定性。日用百货与平台业务成核心看点，有望带动收入结构优化在各大行对京东一季度的前瞻预判中，日用百货与平台及营销服务两大板块的增长再加速被反复提及。据巴克莱的行业调研，这两个业务上年四季度同比增速分别为12.1%和15%，一季度可能进一步加速。一季度日用百货收入同比增速有望从此前预估的12.0%提升至12.5%，平台及营销服务收入同比增速从13.5%上调至15.5%。汇丰同样预计，一季度日用百货将维持12.5%的同比增长，平台及广告收入同比增长约15%。与此同时，家电及3C品类仍是拖累项。巴克莱预计该板块一季度收入同比仍将下滑约8%，但与此前预期相近，并预测最早于2026年三季度有望转为正增长——届时以旧换新补贴的高基数效应逐步消退，有助于下半年整体营收增速的重新提速。外卖亏损拐点渐近，整体减亏节奏好于预期在新业务层面，外卖业务的亏损收窄是各大行上调盈利预测的重要依据。摩根大通认为，监管机构近期接连发出多轮信号反对非理性竞争，国内外卖市场补贴已出现降温迹象，由此推动该行将2026年新业务亏损预测从450亿元收窄至约350亿元（与市场一致预期相比改善约100亿元）。汇丰预计，外卖业务亏损将从2025年的约360亿元收窄至2026年的约250亿元，下降幅度可观。用户指标方面，汇丰援引QuestMobile数据显示，京东月活用户（MAU）一季度同比增长13%，快于竞争对手2%-3%的增速，用户日均活跃比率（DAU/MAU）也同比提升约2个百分点至23%-24%，用户质量的改善为平台变现奠定基础。JoyBuy欧洲推进更谨慎，短期仍以体验与履约为优先在海外扩张上，机构的措辞更偏谨慎，重点从“扩张速度”转向“投入节奏与亏损可控”。巴克莱引述管理层表态称，京东通过JoyBuy推进欧洲业务的投资将“逐步进行”，短期聚焦用户体验，尤其是履约体验，而非业务规模化。摩根大通同样观察到，JoyBuy于3月在欧洲推出后，对获客的投入“相当谨慎”，并预计相较闪购减亏，2026年国际业务推进将更为审慎。汇丰预计，由于前期仓储与配送投入，海外业务在2026年仍将亏损，按其估算季度亏损可能约10亿至20亿元人民币，随订单量波动。估值分歧不大，认为当前股价具有吸引力在估值层面，三家机构虽采用不同方法，但结论均指向当前股价具有较明显的安全边际。巴克莱采用EV/EBITDA估值法，将目标倍数从5倍上调至6倍（基于2027年预期EV/EBITDA），目标价41美元；上行情景对应7倍EBITDA倍数，目标价48美元；下行情景对应4倍，目标价27美元。摩根大通基于9倍2027年预期市盈率（三年均值）给出38美元目标价，对应2026年预期市盈率约11倍，并指出当前核心业务（剔除新业务全部亏损后）的估值仅约6倍，暗示在最乐观情境下存在相当的上行空间。汇丰则采用DCF估值法（WACC为10.6%，终端增长率3.5%），维持35美元目标价，认为当前约9倍的2026年预期市盈率具有吸引力，同时还有相当于市值约5%的回购额度（约20亿美元，有效期至2027年8月）提供估值支撑。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":true,"video":{"duration":51,"video_url":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/418d0f295145403723635397188/B9TPs4EW4AQA.mp4","video_thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b873b4329b7b17b0926c02bec2748c1d"},"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1197588038","isCrawlerRequest":true}