谁将成为下一任美联储主席？对市场有何影响？

金十数据2021-11-10

就下一任美联储主席人选的事宜，拜登上周会见了鲍威尔。但消息人士透露，现任美联储理事布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）上周也同样在白宫进行了面试，她堪称鲍威尔旗鼓相当的对手。华盛顿和华尔街预计在未来几天总统会做出选择。对于布雷纳德可能当选美联储主席，彭博专栏作者John Authers认为，投资者有几个问题需要弄明白。对于市场重要吗？市场开始猜测布雷纳德有望接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席，从昨天...

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Sam Ang
2021-11-11
Sam Ang
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mjng
2021-11-11
mjng
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Tummy
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Tummy
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Tome
2021-11-11
Tome
赞👍
Liaw_0430
2021-11-11
Liaw_0430
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中国ChinaATM
2021-11-11
中国ChinaATM
特朗普

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What is the impact on the market?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a62599b4adae64682a309dcd879a5a","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"就下一任美联储主席人选的事宜，拜登上周会见了鲍威尔。但消息人士透露，现任美联储理事布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）上周也同样在白宫进行了面试，她堪称鲍威尔旗鼓相当的对手。华盛顿和华尔街预计在未来几天总统会做出选择。\n对于布雷纳德可能当选美联储主席，彭博专栏作者John Authers认为，投资者有几个问题需要弄明白。\n对于市场重要吗？\n市场开始猜测布雷纳德有望接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席，从昨天的行情来看，布雷纳德当选可能导致未来美联储变得更“鸽”。\n周一的市场依然100%押注明年两次加息25个基点，但周二消息人士透露拜登与布雷纳德进行面谈后，市场押注只有一次25个基点的加息。明年11月（中期选举前一周）加息的可能性已降至50%以下。\n\n美债收益率方面，行情数据显示，指标10年期美债收益率周二尾盘下跌5.31个基点，至1.440%。30年期美债收益率盘中一度跌至7月以来最低1.795%，尾盘下跌6.6个基点，至1.821%。\n中短期美债收益率的跌势则相对温和，2年期美债收益率跌1.99个基点报0.433%，5年期美债收益率跌3.31个基点报1.088%。\n相比于名义收益率，隔夜实际收益率的大跌态势无疑更为引发了业内人士的广泛关注。10年期通胀保值债券（TIPs）收益率盘中跌至了8月初以来最低的-1.21%。30年期通胀保值债券收益率更是一举触及了-0.592%的纪录低点。\n\n通胀预期则有所上升，两年盈亏平衡通胀率上升到3%以上，自2006年以来达到最高。虽然这不算灾难，但这样的趋势表明，美联储将在未来几年减少花在压低通胀上的精力。\n\n布雷纳德当选主席意味着美联储政策会发生转向吗？\n以下是关于布雷纳德的信息：\n\n 她自2014年以来一直在联邦公开市场委员会任职（只比鲍威尔少两年）\n\n\n 她从未在货币政策投票中投过反对票\n\n\n 她总是和鲍威尔投一样的票\n\n在过去7年的货币政策上，布雷纳德与鲍威尔都持有相似的观点，在关键问题上也与他没有明显的分歧。\n布雷纳德与鲍威尔之间立场比较泾渭分明的可能是在监管领域，布雷纳德是最公开力主整治华尔街的FOMC委员。\n布雷纳德是民主党人，她的货币政策立场比鲍威尔更“鸽派”。而会见布雷纳德也可能意味着拜登正在考虑改变美联储主席的人选是否更有助于推进鸽派货币政策。\n她能获得主席职位吗？\n从可能性来说，不见得。\n首先，在规避市场意外方面，鲍威尔有优势。鲍威尔在经历了四年前的市场考验后，经验显然比布雷纳德更加丰富。况且明年的情况可能会更加艰难，鲍威尔会是更保守的选择。\n其次，现在的政治环境比8年前（耶伦被提名为美联储主席）更糟糕。作为正式民主党人，布雷纳德曾向希拉里·克林顿的总统竞选捐款，因此她的提名在参议院可能会很容易受阻。\n第三，也是最重要的一点，双方可以做出一定的妥协。那就是，鲍威尔保留他的工作，而布雷纳德担任一个加强版的副职位，主要负责监管。\n拜登希望美联储偏“鸽”吗？\n拜登是否希望布雷纳德成为鸽派这一点并不明确。如果在明年，通胀确实开始在不进行干预的情况下消退，拜登的政治前景看起来会更乐观，美联储也可以更努力地重振就业市场。但如果通胀持续加剧（目前市场认为是很有可能的），所有的赌注都将落空。\n美联储如果在明年加息，可能会因对失业者无情而受到抨击；如果放任通胀上升，则会因破坏了人们的生活水平而受到抨击。\n拜登已有决定了吗？\n还没有。但若一拖再拖，将会增加市场出现意外的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":870151845,"gmtCreate":1636595086253,"gmtModify":1636595086253,"author":{"id":"4095237511427410","authorId":"4095237511427410","name":"Sam 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