油价连日攀升收复失地上周跌幅已尽数回补

投资观察04-24 03:46

原油期货周四收涨3.1%至每桶95.85美元，连续四个交易日的攀升令美国基准油价累计上涨12美元。

本周涨势不仅完全抵消了上周五因伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航引发的暴跌，更凸显出这条全球20%原油运输命脉仍处于实质封闭状态。达拉斯联储调查显示，美国石油高管普遍预计此种局面将延续数月。

在接受调查的100位高管中，80人预测霍尔木兹海峡正常通航最早也要到八月才能实现，96%受访者认为军事冲突结束后，由于保险费、运费及通行费上涨，经该航道的石油运输成本将显著提升。

尽管波斯湾供应中断可能长期化且成本攀升，仅10%的美国高管预计今年国内产量将日均增长50万桶以上。更有多达30%的受访者认为2026年美国原油产量将维持零增长。

"极端的油价波动令大小型勘探开采企业难以抉择是否增加资本支出，"一位受访者坦言，"要填补伊朗冲突造成的供应缺口，需要更明确的市场预期和更高的2027年期货价格。"

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

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