高盛经济学家：明年风险偏向下行 -- 市场动态

投资观察11-24

0832 ET - 高盛的经济学家认为，美联储最可能的前进道路是在12月份会议上进行降息，随后明年再进行几次降息，将利率降至略高于3%。不过，如果这一预测不准确，很可能是因为经济增长放缓超过预期，迫使美联储需要采取额外的降息措施。高盛首席经济学家简·哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）表示，9月份新增的119,000个工作岗位在表面上看似稳健，但尽管失业救济申请的数字较小，仍有证据表明裁员可能在上升。“这可能意味着劳动力市场的疲软正变得根深蒂固，无法通过适度的周期性增长加速来加以遏制，”哈齐乌斯写道。（matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman）

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