What analysts are saying about the inflation numbers

finance.yahoo2021-07-14

Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up ...

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wenjia87
2021-07-14
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inflation
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2021-07-14
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Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up ...\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1612507957220","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What analysts are saying about the inflation numbers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat analysts are saying about the inflation numbers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-14 14:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html>finance.yahoo</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nTuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up ...\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html","article_id":"1186441290","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186441290","pubTimestamp":1626244438,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1612507957220","name":"finance.yahoo"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing e","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"yahoo.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"分析人士对通胀数据的看法","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.\nHere’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.\nGood news and bad news\nA big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)\nBank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.\n“The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”\nFurthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.\nThe supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.\n“A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”\nMore broad-based than usual\nExpectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.\nIn a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.\nGas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.\n“It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”\nStill no answers as to what’s permanent\nAnalysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?\nIn a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.\n\"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.\nFrustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.\n“Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.\nCHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More\nWhat this means for the Federal Reserve\nOne of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?\nBank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.\nStill, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.\n“Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.\n“The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":145756795,"gmtCreate":1626248929117,"gmtModify":1631891656184,"author":{"id":"4089079443452540","authorId":"4089079443452540","name":"wenjia87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29176363b8a1d24b51cc09f4baa4d09f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089079443452540","authorIdStr":"4089079443452540"},"htmlText":"inflation","listText":"inflation","text":"inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145756795","repostId":1186441290,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186441290","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626244438,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186441290?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 14:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What analysts are saying about the inflation numbers<blockquote>分析师对通胀数据的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186441290","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing e","content":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.<blockquote>周二的CPI通胀数据引起了轰动。该指数较去年飙升5.4%，超出预期的4.9%。核心通胀（不包括挥发性天然气和食品类别）同比上涨4.5%。两者均较上月上涨0.9%，为2008年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> Here’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.<blockquote>以下是分析师对该报告的评价，以及它对未来的意义。</blockquote> Good news and bad news<blockquote>好消息和坏消息</blockquote> A big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)<blockquote>最近围绕通货膨胀的一个大问题是，它是暂时的还是更有可能变得更加持续。（美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔四月份表示，“随着经济重新开放，一次性价格上涨不太可能导致未来持续的同比通胀。”）</blockquote> Bank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.<blockquote>美国银行的经济团队指出，其“仪表”最近显示了历史性的暂时性通胀。</blockquote> “The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”<blockquote>该银行的Alexander Lin在一份报告中写道：“坏消息是，我们仍未走出困境，因为核心CPI和核心PCE同比通胀率可能会在年底和2022年初保持高位。”给客户的说明。“好消息是，至少在未来几个月内，我们可能已接近峰值，因为基数效应不太有利，短缺压力从商品转向服务。”</blockquote> Furthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.<blockquote>此外，林继续说道，“甚至存在暂时性通胀转变为暂时性通缩的风险。”如果发生这种情况，可能会改变美联储的立场。</blockquote> The supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.<blockquote>供需冲击与近年来的任何情况都不同，大流行导致短缺和需求冲击，然后重新开放导致需求激增。钟摆可以向另一个方向摆动。</blockquote> “A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”<blockquote>林写道：“一旦短缺和瓶颈缓解，商品和大宗商品通胀面临的一个大问题是价格是否会趋于平稳或出现负回报。”“因此，明年暂时性通货紧缩可能会很严重。这可能会给美联储的沟通和加息时间表带来新的挑战。”</blockquote> More broad-based than usual<blockquote>基础比平时更广泛</blockquote> Expectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.<blockquote>通胀数据的预期主要集中在能源成本上，这对CPI数据有巨大影响。</blockquote> In a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.<blockquote>DataTrek的尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在一份预览报告中指出，天然气价格通胀发挥了重要作用，占6月份总体通胀（总计，未经天然气和食品调整）的40%。</blockquote> Gas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.<blockquote>天然气在通货膨胀中发挥了重要作用，但正如联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔所写，许多领域都感受到了通货膨胀。</blockquote> “It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”<blockquote>“6月份的上涨似乎具有更广泛的性质，溢出到CPI的核心组成部分，特别是服务业组成部分。例如，约占总体CPI三分之一的住房正在缓慢走高，6月份的数据显示同比增长2.6%，”他写道。“二手车和卡车价格比去年上涨了45%，这是有史以来最大的涨幅。”</blockquote> Still no answers as to what’s permanent<blockquote>至于什么是永久的，仍然没有答案</blockquote> Analysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?<blockquote>分析师对高于预期的总CPI和核心CPI指标感到惊讶。但这些数字并没有澄清最大的问题：这种情况有多持久？</blockquote> In a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.<blockquote>道明证券分析师在给客户的一份报告中表示，他们认为旅行和二手车的通胀上升意味着通胀“很大程度上”是暂时的。它看到的最大问题是租金在去年放缓后重新加速上涨，这将指向更持久的问题。</blockquote> \"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.<blockquote>分析师写道：“正如我们在最新的美国CPI扫描仪中再次说明的那样，一些跟踪租金的私营部门数据显示，近几个月的CPI数据比CPI数据走强得多，但同一数据显示2020年的走弱得多。”</blockquote> Frustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.<blockquote>然而，对于那些想要更多确定性的人来说，这可能仍然是暂时的。</blockquote> “Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.<blockquote>报告称：“租金的部分走强也可能是暂时的，因为重新开放带来的提振现在已达到顶峰。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3582073f113b6736eb2de8224fd02d8\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More<blockquote>伊利诺伊州芝加哥-6月10日：2021年6月10日，伊利诺伊州芝加哥，一名顾客在一家超市购买肉类。截至5月份的12个月内，通胀率上涨5%，为2008年8月以来的最大涨幅。同期食品价格上涨2.2%。（斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社摄）更多</blockquote> What this means for the Federal Reserve<blockquote>这对美联储意味着什么</blockquote> One of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?<blockquote>美联储的关键工作之一是控制通胀，所以数据当然回避了一个问题：美联储会怎么做？它会维持旨在通过疫情提振经济的宽松货币政策吗？</blockquote> Bank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.<blockquote>美国银行的Lin表示，该行“不认为这份报告对美联储有太大改变”。道明证券分析师也赞同这一观点，原因是这些价格上涨似乎在很大程度上是暂时的，至少从我们目前掌握的数据来看是这样。如果这一时期确实即将结束，美联储可能不想让暂时性通缩或某种相反的钟摆摆动变得更糟。</blockquote> Still, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.<blockquote>荷兰国际集团(ING)的詹姆斯·奈特利(James Knightley)写道，尽管如此，最新数据让这种“观望”更难继续下去。</blockquote> “Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.<blockquote>奈特利写道：“通胀数据再次井喷，使得美联储越来越难以坚持通胀数据上升只是‘暂时的’这一立场。”商品成本正在上升，公司希望其他人——顾客——来支付，尤其是在需求如此旺盛的时候。</blockquote> “The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.<blockquote>“2022年加息的理由很充分，”他补充道。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What analysts are saying about the inflation numbers<blockquote>分析师对通胀数据的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat analysts are saying about the inflation numbers<blockquote>分析师对通胀数据的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-14 14:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.<blockquote>周二的CPI通胀数据引起了轰动。该指数较去年飙升5.4%，超出预期的4.9%。核心通胀（不包括挥发性天然气和食品类别）同比上涨4.5%。两者均较上月上涨0.9%，为2008年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> Here’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.<blockquote>以下是分析师对该报告的评价，以及它对未来的意义。</blockquote> Good news and bad news<blockquote>好消息和坏消息</blockquote> A big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)<blockquote>最近围绕通货膨胀的一个大问题是，它是暂时的还是更有可能变得更加持续。（美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔四月份表示，“随着经济重新开放，一次性价格上涨不太可能导致未来持续的同比通胀。”）</blockquote> Bank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.<blockquote>美国银行的经济团队指出，其“仪表”最近显示了历史性的暂时性通胀。</blockquote> “The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”<blockquote>该银行的Alexander Lin在一份报告中写道：“坏消息是，我们仍未走出困境，因为核心CPI和核心PCE同比通胀率可能会在年底和2022年初保持高位。”给客户的说明。“好消息是，至少在未来几个月内，我们可能已接近峰值，因为基数效应不太有利，短缺压力从商品转向服务。”</blockquote> Furthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.<blockquote>此外，林继续说道，“甚至存在暂时性通胀转变为暂时性通缩的风险。”如果发生这种情况，可能会改变美联储的立场。</blockquote> The supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.<blockquote>供需冲击与近年来的任何情况都不同，大流行导致短缺和需求冲击，然后重新开放导致需求激增。钟摆可以向另一个方向摆动。</blockquote> “A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”<blockquote>林写道：“一旦短缺和瓶颈缓解，商品和大宗商品通胀面临的一个大问题是价格是否会趋于平稳或出现负回报。”“因此，明年暂时性通货紧缩可能会很严重。这可能会给美联储的沟通和加息时间表带来新的挑战。”</blockquote> More broad-based than usual<blockquote>基础比平时更广泛</blockquote> Expectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.<blockquote>通胀数据的预期主要集中在能源成本上，这对CPI数据有巨大影响。</blockquote> In a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.<blockquote>DataTrek的尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在一份预览报告中指出，天然气价格通胀发挥了重要作用，占6月份总体通胀（总计，未经天然气和食品调整）的40%。</blockquote> Gas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.<blockquote>天然气在通货膨胀中发挥了重要作用，但正如联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔所写，许多领域都感受到了通货膨胀。</blockquote> “It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”<blockquote>“6月份的上涨似乎具有更广泛的性质，溢出到CPI的核心组成部分，特别是服务业组成部分。例如，约占总体CPI三分之一的住房正在缓慢走高，6月份的数据显示同比增长2.6%，”他写道。“二手车和卡车价格比去年上涨了45%，这是有史以来最大的涨幅。”</blockquote> Still no answers as to what’s permanent<blockquote>至于什么是永久的，仍然没有答案</blockquote> Analysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?<blockquote>分析师对高于预期的总CPI和核心CPI指标感到惊讶。但这些数字并没有澄清最大的问题：这种情况有多持久？</blockquote> In a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.<blockquote>道明证券分析师在给客户的一份报告中表示，他们认为旅行和二手车的通胀上升意味着通胀“很大程度上”是暂时的。它看到的最大问题是租金在去年放缓后重新加速上涨，这将指向更持久的问题。</blockquote> \"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.<blockquote>分析师写道：“正如我们在最新的美国CPI扫描仪中再次说明的那样，一些跟踪租金的私营部门数据显示，近几个月的CPI数据比CPI数据走强得多，但同一数据显示2020年的走弱得多。”</blockquote> Frustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.<blockquote>然而，对于那些想要更多确定性的人来说，这可能仍然是暂时的。</blockquote> “Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.<blockquote>报告称：“租金的部分走强也可能是暂时的，因为重新开放带来的提振现在已达到顶峰。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3582073f113b6736eb2de8224fd02d8\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More<blockquote>伊利诺伊州芝加哥-6月10日：2021年6月10日，伊利诺伊州芝加哥，一名顾客在一家超市购买肉类。截至5月份的12个月内，通胀率上涨5%，为2008年8月以来的最大涨幅。同期食品价格上涨2.2%。（斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社摄）更多</blockquote> What this means for the Federal Reserve<blockquote>这对美联储意味着什么</blockquote> One of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?<blockquote>美联储的关键工作之一是控制通胀，所以数据当然回避了一个问题：美联储会怎么做？它会维持旨在通过疫情提振经济的宽松货币政策吗？</blockquote> Bank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.<blockquote>美国银行的Lin表示，该行“不认为这份报告对美联储有太大改变”。道明证券分析师也赞同这一观点，原因是这些价格上涨似乎在很大程度上是暂时的，至少从我们目前掌握的数据来看是这样。如果这一时期确实即将结束，美联储可能不想让暂时性通缩或某种相反的钟摆摆动变得更糟。</blockquote> Still, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.<blockquote>荷兰国际集团(ING)的詹姆斯·奈特利(James Knightley)写道，尽管如此，最新数据让这种“观望”更难继续下去。</blockquote> “Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.<blockquote>奈特利写道：“通胀数据再次井喷，使得美联储越来越难以坚持通胀数据上升只是‘暂时的’这一立场。”商品成本正在上升，公司希望其他人——顾客——来支付，尤其是在需求如此旺盛的时候。</blockquote> “The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.<blockquote>“2022年加息的理由很充分，”他补充道。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186441290","content_text":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.\nHere’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.\nGood news and bad news\nA big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)\nBank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.\n“The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”\nFurthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.\nThe supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.\n“A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”\nMore broad-based than usual\nExpectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.\nIn a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.\nGas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.\n“It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”\nStill no answers as to what’s permanent\nAnalysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?\nIn a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.\n\"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.\nFrustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.\n“Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.\nCHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More\nWhat this means for the Federal Reserve\nOne of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?\nBank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.\nStill, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.\n“Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.\n“The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145784322,"gmtCreate":1626246352266,"gmtModify":1633928666591,"author":{"id":"3561425854965065","authorId":"3561425854965065","name":"Lygan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561425854965065","authorIdStr":"3561425854965065"},"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145784322","repostId":1186441290,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186441290","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626244438,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186441290?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 14:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What analysts are saying about the inflation numbers<blockquote>分析师对通胀数据的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186441290","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing e","content":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.<blockquote>周二的CPI通胀数据引起了轰动。该指数较去年飙升5.4%，超出预期的4.9%。核心通胀（不包括挥发性天然气和食品类别）同比上涨4.5%。两者均较上月上涨0.9%，为2008年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> Here’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.<blockquote>以下是分析师对该报告的评价，以及它对未来的意义。</blockquote> Good news and bad news<blockquote>好消息和坏消息</blockquote> A big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)<blockquote>最近围绕通货膨胀的一个大问题是，它是暂时的还是更有可能变得更加持续。（美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔四月份表示，“随着经济重新开放，一次性价格上涨不太可能导致未来持续的同比通胀。”）</blockquote> Bank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.<blockquote>美国银行的经济团队指出，其“仪表”最近显示了历史性的暂时性通胀。</blockquote> “The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”<blockquote>该银行的Alexander Lin在一份报告中写道：“坏消息是，我们仍未走出困境，因为核心CPI和核心PCE同比通胀率可能会在年底和2022年初保持高位。”给客户的说明。“好消息是，至少在未来几个月内，我们可能已接近峰值，因为基数效应不太有利，短缺压力从商品转向服务。”</blockquote> Furthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.<blockquote>此外，林继续说道，“甚至存在暂时性通胀转变为暂时性通缩的风险。”如果发生这种情况，可能会改变美联储的立场。</blockquote> The supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.<blockquote>供需冲击与近年来的任何情况都不同，大流行导致短缺和需求冲击，然后重新开放导致需求激增。钟摆可以向另一个方向摆动。</blockquote> “A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”<blockquote>林写道：“一旦短缺和瓶颈缓解，商品和大宗商品通胀面临的一个大问题是价格是否会趋于平稳或出现负回报。”“因此，明年暂时性通货紧缩可能会很严重。这可能会给美联储的沟通和加息时间表带来新的挑战。”</blockquote> More broad-based than usual<blockquote>基础比平时更广泛</blockquote> Expectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.<blockquote>通胀数据的预期主要集中在能源成本上，这对CPI数据有巨大影响。</blockquote> In a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.<blockquote>DataTrek的尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在一份预览报告中指出，天然气价格通胀发挥了重要作用，占6月份总体通胀（总计，未经天然气和食品调整）的40%。</blockquote> Gas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.<blockquote>天然气在通货膨胀中发挥了重要作用，但正如联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔所写，许多领域都感受到了通货膨胀。</blockquote> “It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”<blockquote>“6月份的上涨似乎具有更广泛的性质，溢出到CPI的核心组成部分，特别是服务业组成部分。例如，约占总体CPI三分之一的住房正在缓慢走高，6月份的数据显示同比增长2.6%，”他写道。“二手车和卡车价格比去年上涨了45%，这是有史以来最大的涨幅。”</blockquote> Still no answers as to what’s permanent<blockquote>至于什么是永久的，仍然没有答案</blockquote> Analysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?<blockquote>分析师对高于预期的总CPI和核心CPI指标感到惊讶。但这些数字并没有澄清最大的问题：这种情况有多持久？</blockquote> In a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.<blockquote>道明证券分析师在给客户的一份报告中表示，他们认为旅行和二手车的通胀上升意味着通胀“很大程度上”是暂时的。它看到的最大问题是租金在去年放缓后重新加速上涨，这将指向更持久的问题。</blockquote> \"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.<blockquote>分析师写道：“正如我们在最新的美国CPI扫描仪中再次说明的那样，一些跟踪租金的私营部门数据显示，近几个月的CPI数据比CPI数据走强得多，但同一数据显示2020年的走弱得多。”</blockquote> Frustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.<blockquote>然而，对于那些想要更多确定性的人来说，这可能仍然是暂时的。</blockquote> “Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.<blockquote>报告称：“租金的部分走强也可能是暂时的，因为重新开放带来的提振现在已达到顶峰。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3582073f113b6736eb2de8224fd02d8\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More<blockquote>伊利诺伊州芝加哥-6月10日：2021年6月10日，伊利诺伊州芝加哥，一名顾客在一家超市购买肉类。截至5月份的12个月内，通胀率上涨5%，为2008年8月以来的最大涨幅。同期食品价格上涨2.2%。（斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社摄）更多</blockquote> What this means for the Federal Reserve<blockquote>这对美联储意味着什么</blockquote> One of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?<blockquote>美联储的关键工作之一是控制通胀，所以数据当然回避了一个问题：美联储会怎么做？它会维持旨在通过疫情提振经济的宽松货币政策吗？</blockquote> Bank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.<blockquote>美国银行的Lin表示，该行“不认为这份报告对美联储有太大改变”。道明证券分析师也赞同这一观点，原因是这些价格上涨似乎在很大程度上是暂时的，至少从我们目前掌握的数据来看是这样。如果这一时期确实即将结束，美联储可能不想让暂时性通缩或某种相反的钟摆摆动变得更糟。</blockquote> Still, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.<blockquote>荷兰国际集团(ING)的詹姆斯·奈特利(James Knightley)写道，尽管如此，最新数据让这种“观望”更难继续下去。</blockquote> “Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.<blockquote>奈特利写道：“通胀数据再次井喷，使得美联储越来越难以坚持通胀数据上升只是‘暂时的’这一立场。”商品成本正在上升，公司希望其他人——顾客——来支付，尤其是在需求如此旺盛的时候。</blockquote> “The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.<blockquote>“2022年加息的理由很充分，”他补充道。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What analysts are saying about the inflation numbers<blockquote>分析师对通胀数据的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat analysts are saying about the inflation numbers<blockquote>分析师对通胀数据的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-14 14:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.<blockquote>周二的CPI通胀数据引起了轰动。该指数较去年飙升5.4%，超出预期的4.9%。核心通胀（不包括挥发性天然气和食品类别）同比上涨4.5%。两者均较上月上涨0.9%，为2008年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> Here’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.<blockquote>以下是分析师对该报告的评价，以及它对未来的意义。</blockquote> Good news and bad news<blockquote>好消息和坏消息</blockquote> A big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)<blockquote>最近围绕通货膨胀的一个大问题是，它是暂时的还是更有可能变得更加持续。（美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔四月份表示，“随着经济重新开放，一次性价格上涨不太可能导致未来持续的同比通胀。”）</blockquote> Bank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.<blockquote>美国银行的经济团队指出，其“仪表”最近显示了历史性的暂时性通胀。</blockquote> “The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”<blockquote>该银行的Alexander Lin在一份报告中写道：“坏消息是，我们仍未走出困境，因为核心CPI和核心PCE同比通胀率可能会在年底和2022年初保持高位。”给客户的说明。“好消息是，至少在未来几个月内，我们可能已接近峰值，因为基数效应不太有利，短缺压力从商品转向服务。”</blockquote> Furthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.<blockquote>此外，林继续说道，“甚至存在暂时性通胀转变为暂时性通缩的风险。”如果发生这种情况，可能会改变美联储的立场。</blockquote> The supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.<blockquote>供需冲击与近年来的任何情况都不同，大流行导致短缺和需求冲击，然后重新开放导致需求激增。钟摆可以向另一个方向摆动。</blockquote> “A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”<blockquote>林写道：“一旦短缺和瓶颈缓解，商品和大宗商品通胀面临的一个大问题是价格是否会趋于平稳或出现负回报。”“因此，明年暂时性通货紧缩可能会很严重。这可能会给美联储的沟通和加息时间表带来新的挑战。”</blockquote> More broad-based than usual<blockquote>基础比平时更广泛</blockquote> Expectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.<blockquote>通胀数据的预期主要集中在能源成本上，这对CPI数据有巨大影响。</blockquote> In a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.<blockquote>DataTrek的尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在一份预览报告中指出，天然气价格通胀发挥了重要作用，占6月份总体通胀（总计，未经天然气和食品调整）的40%。</blockquote> Gas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.<blockquote>天然气在通货膨胀中发挥了重要作用，但正如联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔所写，许多领域都感受到了通货膨胀。</blockquote> “It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”<blockquote>“6月份的上涨似乎具有更广泛的性质，溢出到CPI的核心组成部分，特别是服务业组成部分。例如，约占总体CPI三分之一的住房正在缓慢走高，6月份的数据显示同比增长2.6%，”他写道。“二手车和卡车价格比去年上涨了45%，这是有史以来最大的涨幅。”</blockquote> Still no answers as to what’s permanent<blockquote>至于什么是永久的，仍然没有答案</blockquote> Analysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?<blockquote>分析师对高于预期的总CPI和核心CPI指标感到惊讶。但这些数字并没有澄清最大的问题：这种情况有多持久？</blockquote> In a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.<blockquote>道明证券分析师在给客户的一份报告中表示，他们认为旅行和二手车的通胀上升意味着通胀“很大程度上”是暂时的。它看到的最大问题是租金在去年放缓后重新加速上涨，这将指向更持久的问题。</blockquote> \"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.<blockquote>分析师写道：“正如我们在最新的美国CPI扫描仪中再次说明的那样，一些跟踪租金的私营部门数据显示，近几个月的CPI数据比CPI数据走强得多，但同一数据显示2020年的走弱得多。”</blockquote> Frustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.<blockquote>然而，对于那些想要更多确定性的人来说，这可能仍然是暂时的。</blockquote> “Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.<blockquote>报告称：“租金的部分走强也可能是暂时的，因为重新开放带来的提振现在已达到顶峰。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3582073f113b6736eb2de8224fd02d8\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More<blockquote>伊利诺伊州芝加哥-6月10日：2021年6月10日，伊利诺伊州芝加哥，一名顾客在一家超市购买肉类。截至5月份的12个月内，通胀率上涨5%，为2008年8月以来的最大涨幅。同期食品价格上涨2.2%。（斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社摄）更多</blockquote> What this means for the Federal Reserve<blockquote>这对美联储意味着什么</blockquote> One of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?<blockquote>美联储的关键工作之一是控制通胀，所以数据当然回避了一个问题：美联储会怎么做？它会维持旨在通过疫情提振经济的宽松货币政策吗？</blockquote> Bank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.<blockquote>美国银行的Lin表示，该行“不认为这份报告对美联储有太大改变”。道明证券分析师也赞同这一观点，原因是这些价格上涨似乎在很大程度上是暂时的，至少从我们目前掌握的数据来看是这样。如果这一时期确实即将结束，美联储可能不想让暂时性通缩或某种相反的钟摆摆动变得更糟。</blockquote> Still, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.<blockquote>荷兰国际集团(ING)的詹姆斯·奈特利(James Knightley)写道，尽管如此，最新数据让这种“观望”更难继续下去。</blockquote> “Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.<blockquote>奈特利写道：“通胀数据再次井喷，使得美联储越来越难以坚持通胀数据上升只是‘暂时的’这一立场。”商品成本正在上升，公司希望其他人——顾客——来支付，尤其是在需求如此旺盛的时候。</blockquote> “The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.<blockquote>“2022年加息的理由很充分，”他补充道。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-inflation-numbers-202957547.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186441290","content_text":"Tuesday’s CPI inflation numbersmade a splash. The index surged 5.4% over the last year, surpassing expectations of 4.9%. Core inflation (which excludes the volatile gas and food categories) was up 4.5% year-over-year. Both were up 0.9% over last month, the biggest jump since 2008.\nHere’s what analysts had to say about the report, and what it means going forward.\nGood news and bad news\nA big question surrounding inflation recently is whether it’s transitory or more likely to become more sustained. (“An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not likely to lead to persistent year-over-year inflation into the future,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in April.)\nBank of America's economics team pointed out that its \"meter\" recently showed historic temporary inflation.\n“The bad news is that we are still not out of the woods, as core CPI and core PCE % year-over-year inflation are likely to remain elevated through year-end and into early 2022,” the bank’s Alexander Lin wrote in a note to clients. “The good news is that we are likely near the peak, at least for the next few months, as base effects are less favorable and shortage pressures rotate away from goods towards services.”\nFurthermore, Lin continued, “There is even risk that transitory inflation turns into transitory disinflation.” If that happened, it could change the Fed’s position.\nThe supply and demand shocks have been unlike anything in recent memory, with the pandemic leading to shortages and demand shocks and then reopening causing a demand whiplash. The pendulum could swing the other way.\n“A big question for goods and commodities inflation once the shortages and bottlenecks ease is whether there will be a leveling off in prices or a negative payback,” Lin wrote. “Thus, transitory disinflation could be substantial next year. This could create a new challenge for Fed communication and the hiking timeline.”\nMore broad-based than usual\nExpectations going into the inflation numbers focused on energy costs, which has an outsize impact on the CPI number.\nIn a preview note, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas pointed out that gas price inflation played a big role, making up 40% of June’s headline (total, unadjusted for gas and food) inflation.\nGas played a big role in inflation, but as Peter Essele, Head of Investment Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote, inflation was felt across the board in many areas.\n“It appears the June increase was more broad-based in nature with spillover into the core components of CPI, notably the services component. Shelter, for instance, which makes up roughly one-third of headline CPI is slowly marching higher, with June’s print showing an increase 2.6% year-over-year,” he wrote. “Used cars and trucks prices have increased 45% over the last year, which signals the largest move ever.”\nStill no answers as to what’s permanent\nAnalysts were surprised by higher-than-expected total and core CPI metrics. But the numbers did little to clarify the biggest question: how permanent is any of this?\nIn a note to clients, TD Securities analysts said they thought the inflation increases in travel and used vehicles meant that the inflation was \"largely\" transitory. The big issue it saw was in rents reaccelerating up after a slowdown last year, which would point to something more permanent.\n\"As we illustrated once again in our latest US CPI Scanner, some private sector data tracking rents show much more strengthening than the CPI data in recent months, but the same data showed much more weakening in 2020,” analysts wrote.\nFrustratingly for those who want more certainty, this could still be transitory, however.\n“Some of the strengthening in rents could also be transitory to the extent the boost from reopening is at its peak now,” the note said.\nCHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 10: A customer shops for meat at a supermarket on June 10, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Inflation rose 5% in the 12-month period ending in May, the biggest jump since August 2008. Food prices rose 2.2 percent for the same period. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)More\nWhat this means for the Federal Reserve\nOne of the Federal Reserve’s key jobs is to control inflation, so of course, the data begs the question: What will the Fed do? Will it maintain its easy money policies meant to boost the economy through the pandemic?\nBank of America's Lin said the bank doesn't \"believe this report changes much for the Fed.” The reason, echoed by TD Securities analysts, is because these price increases seem to be largely transitory, at least with the data we have now. And if this period is indeed almost over, transitory deflation or some opposite pendulum swing is something the Fed might not want to make worse.\nStill, the latest data makes it harder for this “wait and see” to continue, ING’s James Knightley wrote.\n“Yet another blowout inflation reading makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely ‘transitory,’” Knightley wrote. Costs forgoods are going upand companies want someone else to pay — the customer — especially when demand is so hot.\n“The case for a 2022 rate hike is strong,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145734397,"gmtCreate":1626244657419,"gmtModify":1631890457301,"author":{"id":"3578395010502371","authorId":"3578395010502371","name":"Rach_08","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775bed8092951cfa8956d7e5418b1f70","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578395010502371","authorIdStr":"3578395010502371"},"htmlText":"Hmm..","listText":"Hmm..","text":"Hmm..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145734397","repostId":1186441290,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1186441290","isCrawlerRequest":true}