Apple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says

TheStreet2022-03-19

One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers ...

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The Apple Maven takes a closer look.As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-19 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst>TheStreet</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nOne analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AAPL","symbol_name":"苹果","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst","article_id":"1184059964","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184059964","pubTimestamp":1647651682,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"thestreet.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"translate_title":"苹果股票：关键分析师表示，可以买入","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9},"content_text":"One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One AnalystInterest rate hikes underwayMr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.Has AAPL bottomed?While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":634726157,"gmtCreate":1647704811484,"gmtModify":1647704811624,"author":{"id":"3574472016824960","authorId":"3574472016824960","name":"ehohehoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574472016824960","idStr":"3574472016824960"},"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634726157","repostId":1184059964,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184059964","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647651682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184059964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-19 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says<blockquote>主要分析师表示，苹果股票：买入大开绿灯</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184059964","media":"TheStreet","summary":"One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a ","content":"<html><head></head><body>One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>一位分析师认为，苹果股价可能终于找到了2022年的底部。苹果专家仔细观察。</body></html></blockquote>As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.<blockquote>随着股市显示出终于站稳脚跟的迹象（祈祷好运），一位直言不讳的华尔街分析师为苹果股价进一步上涨开了“绿灯”。</blockquote>Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?<blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家回顾了韦德布什对苹果公司的立场，苹果公司仍然是其首选科技公司。分析师Dan Ives关于苹果股票及其一些同行今年已经触底的说法是否正确？</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd834b5930cc8484f73b322c50b95c91\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One Analyst<blockquote>图1：一位分析师表示，苹果股票：买入开绿灯</blockquote>Interest rate hikes underway<blockquote>加息正在进行</blockquote>Mr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.<blockquote>艾夫斯本周的关键催化剂是美联储关于货币政策的声明。美联储将短期利率提高25个基点，此举受到广泛预期。预计2022年还会加息六次。</blockquote>I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?<blockquote>我昨天解释过，对加息的看涨反应可能违反直觉。更高的利率不应该拖累科技股和成长型股吗？</blockquote>The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.<blockquote>这里的关键是，市场通常不会对此时此刻正在发生的事情做出反应。相反，它倾向于展望几个月并预测未来的事件。</blockquote>Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.<blockquote>丹·艾夫斯似乎同意我的观点，加息运动的开始非但没有引起担忧，反而让人感到松了一口气。最后，货币政策将开始收紧，投资者可以慢慢开始担心通胀猖獗以外的事情。</blockquote>This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.<blockquote>这很像去年11月初发生的事情。当美联储宣布启动缩减进程（即逐步结束银行的债券购买计划）时，纳斯达克立即反弹——尽管热情仅持续了两个月。</blockquote>Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.<blockquote>因此，是的，我相信本周的宏观经济事件对苹果股票有利。如果“不去管”（即没有市场层面的冲击和担忧），我认为由于公司强劲的基本面和执行力，AAPL股价将趋于上涨。</blockquote>Has AAPL bottomed?<blockquote>苹果公司已经触底了吗？</blockquote>While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.<blockquote>虽然我认为苹果股票几年后的价值将会高得多，但更难回答的问题是该股是否经历了2022年最糟糕的时期。</blockquote>Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.<blockquote>任何现实的分析师或投资者都必须为股价进一步疲软敞开大门。我仍然认为，坚信年初市场的抛售已经完全结束还为时过早。</blockquote>But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.<blockquote>但我可以做一件事：查看历史数据，了解接下来会发生什么。《巴伦周刊》为我们做了一些工作。</blockquote>According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:<blockquote>据该出版物称，昨晚我收件箱中的一封电子邮件中引用了道琼斯市场数据：</blockquote>“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&amp;P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.<blockquote>“美联储开始紧缩并不一定对股市不利。自1990年以来已有五次加息周期，主要股指结束更高的第一次加息一年后80%的情况。”单独来看，这个数字并不是特别令人印象深刻，因为在过去30年中，标普500 80%的时间都产生了正回报。但至少，观察表明，最近的加息并没有更多可能拖累股市的表现。</blockquote>I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.<blockquote>然后我看了看苹果股票本身。请记住，AAPL较历史高点下跌了17%，年初至今的底部最近于3月14日触及。</blockquote>In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.<blockquote>在iPhone时代，即自2007年以来，苹果股价至少下跌了几次：当然是在2008年大衰退期间，还有2013-2014年、2017-2018年以及最近的COVID-19熊市期间。</blockquote>Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.<blockquote>每当发生17%以上的抛售时，苹果都会在一年后产生56%的出色平均回报率！虽然在极少数情况下，股价在下跌17%后继续下跌，但一年后，该股92%的时间都处于正值区域。</blockquote>Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:<blockquote>查看下面的直方图，其中显示了自2007年以来苹果股价较峰值下跌17%以上后一年远期回报的分布：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0028f6b3627c6e01dbd676d5158e65\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.<blockquote>图2：AAPL：抛售17%以上后的1年回报率。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says<blockquote>主要分析师表示，苹果股票：买入大开绿灯</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says<blockquote>主要分析师表示，苹果股票：买入大开绿灯</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2022-03-19 09:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>一位分析师认为，苹果股价可能终于找到了2022年的底部。苹果专家仔细观察。</body></html></blockquote>As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.<blockquote>随着股市显示出终于站稳脚跟的迹象（祈祷好运），一位直言不讳的华尔街分析师为苹果股价进一步上涨开了“绿灯”。</blockquote>Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?<blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家回顾了韦德布什对苹果公司的立场，苹果公司仍然是其首选科技公司。分析师Dan Ives关于苹果股票及其一些同行今年已经触底的说法是否正确？</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd834b5930cc8484f73b322c50b95c91\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One Analyst<blockquote>图1：一位分析师表示，苹果股票：买入开绿灯</blockquote>Interest rate hikes underway<blockquote>加息正在进行</blockquote>Mr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.<blockquote>艾夫斯本周的关键催化剂是美联储关于货币政策的声明。美联储将短期利率提高25个基点，此举受到广泛预期。预计2022年还会加息六次。</blockquote>I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?<blockquote>我昨天解释过，对加息的看涨反应可能违反直觉。更高的利率不应该拖累科技股和成长型股吗？</blockquote>The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.<blockquote>这里的关键是，市场通常不会对此时此刻正在发生的事情做出反应。相反，它倾向于展望几个月并预测未来的事件。</blockquote>Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.<blockquote>丹·艾夫斯似乎同意我的观点，加息运动的开始非但没有引起担忧，反而让人感到松了一口气。最后，货币政策将开始收紧，投资者可以慢慢开始担心通胀猖獗以外的事情。</blockquote>This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.<blockquote>这很像去年11月初发生的事情。当美联储宣布启动缩减进程（即逐步结束银行的债券购买计划）时，纳斯达克立即反弹——尽管热情仅持续了两个月。</blockquote>Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.<blockquote>因此，是的，我相信本周的宏观经济事件对苹果股票有利。如果“不去管”（即没有市场层面的冲击和担忧），我认为由于公司强劲的基本面和执行力，AAPL股价将趋于上涨。</blockquote>Has AAPL bottomed?<blockquote>苹果公司已经触底了吗？</blockquote>While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.<blockquote>虽然我认为苹果股票几年后的价值将会高得多，但更难回答的问题是该股是否经历了2022年最糟糕的时期。</blockquote>Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.<blockquote>任何现实的分析师或投资者都必须为股价进一步疲软敞开大门。我仍然认为，坚信年初市场的抛售已经完全结束还为时过早。</blockquote>But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.<blockquote>但我可以做一件事：查看历史数据，了解接下来会发生什么。《巴伦周刊》为我们做了一些工作。</blockquote>According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:<blockquote>据该出版物称，昨晚我收件箱中的一封电子邮件中引用了道琼斯市场数据：</blockquote>“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&amp;P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.<blockquote>“美联储开始紧缩并不一定对股市不利。自1990年以来已有五次加息周期，主要股指结束更高的第一次加息一年后80%的情况。”单独来看，这个数字并不是特别令人印象深刻，因为在过去30年中，标普500 80%的时间都产生了正回报。但至少，观察表明，最近的加息并没有更多可能拖累股市的表现。</blockquote>I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.<blockquote>然后我看了看苹果股票本身。请记住，AAPL较历史高点下跌了17%，年初至今的底部最近于3月14日触及。</blockquote>In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.<blockquote>在iPhone时代，即自2007年以来，苹果股价至少下跌了几次：当然是在2008年大衰退期间，还有2013-2014年、2017-2018年以及最近的COVID-19熊市期间。</blockquote>Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.<blockquote>每当发生17%以上的抛售时，苹果都会在一年后产生56%的出色平均回报率！虽然在极少数情况下，股价在下跌17%后继续下跌，但一年后，该股92%的时间都处于正值区域。</blockquote>Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:<blockquote>查看下面的直方图，其中显示了自2007年以来苹果股价较峰值下跌17%以上后一年远期回报的分布：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0028f6b3627c6e01dbd676d5158e65\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.<blockquote>图2：AAPL：抛售17%以上后的1年回报率。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184059964","content_text":"One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One AnalystInterest rate hikes underwayMr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.Has AAPL bottomed?While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":634719615,"gmtCreate":1647664833679,"gmtModify":1647664834196,"author":{"id":"3575000650579772","authorId":"3575000650579772","name":"Samwich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333bbe08da61ec501a2da43a65e31462","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575000650579772","idStr":"3575000650579772"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634719615","repostId":1184059964,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184059964","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647651682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184059964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-19 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says<blockquote>主要分析师表示，苹果股票：买入大开绿灯</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184059964","media":"TheStreet","summary":"One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a ","content":"<html><head></head><body>One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>一位分析师认为，苹果股价可能终于找到了2022年的底部。苹果专家仔细观察。</body></html></blockquote>As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.<blockquote>随着股市显示出终于站稳脚跟的迹象（祈祷好运），一位直言不讳的华尔街分析师为苹果股价进一步上涨开了“绿灯”。</blockquote>Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?<blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家回顾了韦德布什对苹果公司的立场，苹果公司仍然是其首选科技公司。分析师Dan Ives关于苹果股票及其一些同行今年已经触底的说法是否正确？</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd834b5930cc8484f73b322c50b95c91\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One Analyst<blockquote>图1：一位分析师表示，苹果股票：买入开绿灯</blockquote>Interest rate hikes underway<blockquote>加息正在进行</blockquote>Mr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.<blockquote>艾夫斯本周的关键催化剂是美联储关于货币政策的声明。美联储将短期利率提高25个基点，此举受到广泛预期。预计2022年还会加息六次。</blockquote>I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?<blockquote>我昨天解释过，对加息的看涨反应可能违反直觉。更高的利率不应该拖累科技股和成长型股吗？</blockquote>The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.<blockquote>这里的关键是，市场通常不会对此时此刻正在发生的事情做出反应。相反，它倾向于展望几个月并预测未来的事件。</blockquote>Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.<blockquote>丹·艾夫斯似乎同意我的观点，加息运动的开始非但没有引起担忧，反而让人感到松了一口气。最后，货币政策将开始收紧，投资者可以慢慢开始担心通胀猖獗以外的事情。</blockquote>This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.<blockquote>这很像去年11月初发生的事情。当美联储宣布启动缩减进程（即逐步结束银行的债券购买计划）时，纳斯达克立即反弹——尽管热情仅持续了两个月。</blockquote>Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.<blockquote>因此，是的，我相信本周的宏观经济事件对苹果股票有利。如果“不去管”（即没有市场层面的冲击和担忧），我认为由于公司强劲的基本面和执行力，AAPL股价将趋于上涨。</blockquote>Has AAPL bottomed?<blockquote>苹果公司已经触底了吗？</blockquote>While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.<blockquote>虽然我认为苹果股票几年后的价值将会高得多，但更难回答的问题是该股是否经历了2022年最糟糕的时期。</blockquote>Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.<blockquote>任何现实的分析师或投资者都必须为股价进一步疲软敞开大门。我仍然认为，坚信年初市场的抛售已经完全结束还为时过早。</blockquote>But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.<blockquote>但我可以做一件事：查看历史数据，了解接下来会发生什么。《巴伦周刊》为我们做了一些工作。</blockquote>According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:<blockquote>据该出版物称，昨晚我收件箱中的一封电子邮件中引用了道琼斯市场数据：</blockquote>“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&amp;P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.<blockquote>“美联储开始紧缩并不一定对股市不利。自1990年以来已有五次加息周期，主要股指结束更高的第一次加息一年后80%的情况。”单独来看，这个数字并不是特别令人印象深刻，因为在过去30年中，标普500 80%的时间都产生了正回报。但至少，观察表明，最近的加息并没有更多可能拖累股市的表现。</blockquote>I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.<blockquote>然后我看了看苹果股票本身。请记住，AAPL较历史高点下跌了17%，年初至今的底部最近于3月14日触及。</blockquote>In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.<blockquote>在iPhone时代，即自2007年以来，苹果股价至少下跌了几次：当然是在2008年大衰退期间，还有2013-2014年、2017-2018年以及最近的COVID-19熊市期间。</blockquote>Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.<blockquote>每当发生17%以上的抛售时，苹果都会在一年后产生56%的出色平均回报率！虽然在极少数情况下，股价在下跌17%后继续下跌，但一年后，该股92%的时间都处于正值区域。</blockquote>Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:<blockquote>查看下面的直方图，其中显示了自2007年以来苹果股价较峰值下跌17%以上后一年远期回报的分布：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0028f6b3627c6e01dbd676d5158e65\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.<blockquote>图2：AAPL：抛售17%以上后的1年回报率。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says<blockquote>主要分析师表示，苹果股票：买入大开绿灯</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Bright Green Light to Buy, Key Analyst Says<blockquote>主要分析师表示，苹果股票：买入大开绿灯</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2022-03-19 09:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>一位分析师认为，苹果股价可能终于找到了2022年的底部。苹果专家仔细观察。</body></html></blockquote>As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.<blockquote>随着股市显示出终于站稳脚跟的迹象（祈祷好运），一位直言不讳的华尔街分析师为苹果股价进一步上涨开了“绿灯”。</blockquote>Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?<blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家回顾了韦德布什对苹果公司的立场，苹果公司仍然是其首选科技公司。分析师Dan Ives关于苹果股票及其一些同行今年已经触底的说法是否正确？</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd834b5930cc8484f73b322c50b95c91\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One Analyst<blockquote>图1：一位分析师表示，苹果股票：买入开绿灯</blockquote>Interest rate hikes underway<blockquote>加息正在进行</blockquote>Mr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.<blockquote>艾夫斯本周的关键催化剂是美联储关于货币政策的声明。美联储将短期利率提高25个基点，此举受到广泛预期。预计2022年还会加息六次。</blockquote>I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?<blockquote>我昨天解释过，对加息的看涨反应可能违反直觉。更高的利率不应该拖累科技股和成长型股吗？</blockquote>The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.<blockquote>这里的关键是，市场通常不会对此时此刻正在发生的事情做出反应。相反，它倾向于展望几个月并预测未来的事件。</blockquote>Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.<blockquote>丹·艾夫斯似乎同意我的观点，加息运动的开始非但没有引起担忧，反而让人感到松了一口气。最后，货币政策将开始收紧，投资者可以慢慢开始担心通胀猖獗以外的事情。</blockquote>This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.<blockquote>这很像去年11月初发生的事情。当美联储宣布启动缩减进程（即逐步结束银行的债券购买计划）时，纳斯达克立即反弹——尽管热情仅持续了两个月。</blockquote>Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.<blockquote>因此，是的，我相信本周的宏观经济事件对苹果股票有利。如果“不去管”（即没有市场层面的冲击和担忧），我认为由于公司强劲的基本面和执行力，AAPL股价将趋于上涨。</blockquote>Has AAPL bottomed?<blockquote>苹果公司已经触底了吗？</blockquote>While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.<blockquote>虽然我认为苹果股票几年后的价值将会高得多，但更难回答的问题是该股是否经历了2022年最糟糕的时期。</blockquote>Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.<blockquote>任何现实的分析师或投资者都必须为股价进一步疲软敞开大门。我仍然认为，坚信年初市场的抛售已经完全结束还为时过早。</blockquote>But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.<blockquote>但我可以做一件事：查看历史数据，了解接下来会发生什么。《巴伦周刊》为我们做了一些工作。</blockquote>According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:<blockquote>据该出版物称，昨晚我收件箱中的一封电子邮件中引用了道琼斯市场数据：</blockquote>“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&amp;P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.<blockquote>“美联储开始紧缩并不一定对股市不利。自1990年以来已有五次加息周期，主要股指结束更高的第一次加息一年后80%的情况。”单独来看，这个数字并不是特别令人印象深刻，因为在过去30年中，标普500 80%的时间都产生了正回报。但至少，观察表明，最近的加息并没有更多可能拖累股市的表现。</blockquote>I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.<blockquote>然后我看了看苹果股票本身。请记住，AAPL较历史高点下跌了17%，年初至今的底部最近于3月14日触及。</blockquote>In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.<blockquote>在iPhone时代，即自2007年以来，苹果股价至少下跌了几次：当然是在2008年大衰退期间，还有2013-2014年、2017-2018年以及最近的COVID-19熊市期间。</blockquote>Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.<blockquote>每当发生17%以上的抛售时，苹果都会在一年后产生56%的出色平均回报率！虽然在极少数情况下，股价在下跌17%后继续下跌，但一年后，该股92%的时间都处于正值区域。</blockquote>Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:<blockquote>查看下面的直方图，其中显示了自2007年以来苹果股价较峰值下跌17%以上后一年远期回报的分布：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d0028f6b3627c6e01dbd676d5158e65\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.<blockquote>图2：AAPL：抛售17%以上后的1年回报率。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bright-green-light-to-buy-says-one-analyst","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184059964","content_text":"One analyst thinks that Apple stock may have finally found its 2022 bottom. The Apple Maven takes a closer look.As the equities market shows signs that it has finally found its footing (fingers crossed), one vocal Wall Street analyst has given a “bright green light” for Apple stock to climb further.Today, the Apple Maven reviews Wedbush’s stance on AAPL, still its top tech pick. Could analyst Dan Ives be right that Apple stock and some of its peers have bottomed for the year?Figure 1: Apple Stock: Bright Green Light To Buy, Says One AnalystInterest rate hikes underwayMr. Ives’ key catalyst this week has been the Federal Reserve’s announcement on monetary policy. In a move that has been widely anticipated, the US central bank is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. Six more hikes are expected in 2022.I explained yesterday that the bullish reaction to the rate bump can be counterintuitive. Shouldn’t higher interest be a drag for tech and growth stocks?The key here is that the markets do not usually react to what is happening right at this moment. Rather, it tends to look forward a few months and anticipate future events.Dan Ives seems to agree with me that, rather than causing concern, the start of the rate hike campaign has been felt as a relief. Finally, monetary policy will begin to tighten, and investors can slowly start to worry about something other than rampant inflation.This is very much what happened in early November of last year. When the Fed announced the start of the tapering process (that is, the winding down of the Bank’s bond purchase program), the Nasdaq immediately rallied — although enthusiasm lasted barely two months.Therefore, yes, I believe that the macroeconomics events of the week were a positive for Apple stock. If “left alone” (i.e., absent market-level shocks and concerns), I think that AAPL share price will tend to rise due to the company’s strong fundamentals and execution.Has AAPL bottomed?While I think that Apple stock will be worth much more several years down the road, the harder question to answer is whether shares have seen the worst of 2022.Any realistic analyst or investor must leave the door open for further share price weakness. I still think it is a bit too early to say, with much conviction, that the early-year selloff in the markets has completely run its course.But here’s one thing that I can do: look at the historical data to understand what could happen next. Barron’s has done some of the work for us.According to the publication, citing Dow Jones Market Data in an email that landed in my inbox last evening:“The start of a Fed tightening is not necessarily bad for stocks. There have been five rate-raising cycles since 1990, and the major stock indexes endedhighera year after the first rate increase 80% of the time.”In isolation, this figure is not particularly impressive, since the S&P 500 has produced positive returns for the year 80% of the time in the past 3 decades. But at least, the observation suggests that recent rate hikes have not been any more likely to drag the performance of the stock market.I then looked at Apple stock itself. Keep in mind that AAPL dropped as much as 17% from its all-time high, with the YTD bottom being reached as recently as March 14.In the iPhone era, i.e. since 2007, Apple shares dropped at least this much a few times: certainly during the Great Recession of 2008, but also in 2013-2014, 2017-2018, and during the more recent COVID-19 bear market.Whenever a 17%-plus selloff happened, Apple managed to produce outstanding average returns of 56% one year later! While, in rare instances, share price continued to decline after the 17% drawdown, the stock was in positive territory a year later 92% of the time.Check out the histogram below, which shows the distribution of one-year forward returns after Apple stock dipped 17% of more from a peak, since 2007:Figure 2: AAPL: 1-year return after 17%+ selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7304395,"gmtCreate":1647664838149,"gmtModify":1647664838246,"authorId":3575000650579772,"author":{"id":3575000650579772,"idStr":"3575000650579772","authorId":3575000650579772,"name":"Samwich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333bbe08da61ec501a2da43a65e31462","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":634719615,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"K","text":"K","html":"K"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":29,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.13","shortVersion":"4.35.13","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1184059964","isCrawlerRequest":true}