Brexit Trade Deal Could Be Hours Away. Here’s What It Means for Markets and Investors.

MarketWatch2020-12-24

A trade deal between the U.K. and European Union could be imminent after nine months of protracted negotiations. A meeting has been scheduled on Christmas Eve for EU ambassadors to start the process ...

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Here’s What It Means for Markets and Investors.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-24 17:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/brexit-trade-deal-could-be-hours-away-what-it-means-for-markets-and-investors-51608748214?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A trade deal between the U.K. and European Union could be imminent after nine months of protracted negotiations.\nA meeting has been scheduled on Christmas Eve for EU ambassadors to start the process ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/brexit-trade-deal-could-be-hours-away-what-it-means-for-markets-and-investors-51608748214?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"VUKE.UK","symbol_name":"英国富时100","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/brexit-trade-deal-could-be-hours-away-what-it-means-for-markets-and-investors-51608748214?mod=home-page","article_id":"1183164924","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183164924","pubTimestamp":1608801314,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"market_watch","name":"华尔街大事件"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"A trade deal between the U.K. and European Union could be imminent after nine months of protracted n","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"VUKE.UK":"英国富时100"},"translate_title":"英国脱欧贸易协议可能还有几个小时。这对市场和投资者意味着什么。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08f7fda2eaba542e10eec4866cde81b","symbols_score_info":{"VUKE.UK":0.9},"content_text":"A trade deal between the U.K. and European Union could be imminent after nine months of protracted negotiations.\nA meeting has been scheduled on Christmas Eve for EU ambassadors to start the process of ratifying what is 2,000 pages of legal text,according to news reports.\nPrime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have been in close contact over the past two days in a bid to strike a deal in time for ratification before the end of the year deadline.\nThe U.K. left the EU on Jan. 31 but the two sides had to reach a deal over their future trading relationship before the transition period ends on Dec. 31.\nWhile talks deteriorated at times over the past few weeks the markets have largely priced in a deal because the two sides have previously left making concessions until the last minute.\nFailure to reach a deal, which impacts the key trading relationship between the U.K. and the EU and affects a host of goods and services, would cause a major jolt to markets and hurt investors.\nMarket Moving?\nSome experts are even skeptical about whether a deal will please markets in the long term.\nT.D. Ameritrade’s chief market strategist J.J. Kinahan toldBarron’s: “I think it’s very hard to say that Brexit is fully built into markets. The reason being, it’s never been done before. Nobody’s left the European Union before.\n“Short term this is great news .... but long term we don’t know all the ramifications of Brexit.\nSo, I would expect that [Brexit] will be back on our news radar at some point in the first quarter of 2021.”\nDavid Madden, an analyst at CMC Markets, toldBarron’sthat “to be honest, I don’t think a U.K.-EU deal will have much of an impact on the U.S. markets or U.S. investors. It will probably have a small positive impact but nothing too exciting.”\nBut Lukman Otunuga, analyst at FXTM, said the feel-good factor could spread. “In regards to the impact on U.S. markets, the risk-on mood from a breakthrough could make its way across the Atlantic—stimulating appetite for U.S. equities,” he said, adding that the pound could “roar back to life.”\nFor Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, the U.S. has bigger fish to fry than Brexit. “Looking at the U.S. markets, Brexit is a relatively low concern compared with what is happening with the virus, what is happening with lockdowns, what’s happening with stimulus, and Federal Reserve policy,” he toldBarron’s. “It is not that Brexit is unimportant, it’s just that it is a lesser factor compared with those others.”\nRoaring Pound\nThe pound has been on something of a roller-coaster ride in recent weeks, and even years, as negotiations over a trade deal have twisted and turned ahead of the year-end deadline. After falling to $1.29 at the beginning of November amid fears of a no-deal scenario, the currency rose to a two-and-half-year high against the dollar last week, briefly hitting $1.36.\nING analysts, led by Global Head of Markets Chris Turner, said the eventual agreement would provide a “modest boost” to the pound, pushing it to $1.38. They warned there was a “profound downside” in the event of a no-deal but set a one-month target of $1.36.\nFor context, on the day of the EU referendum in June 2016, the pound briefly hit $1.50 as initial results suggested Britain may have voted to remain in the 27-nation bloc. The day after the vote, once the U.K. had opted to leave, sterling plunged below $1.23.\nU.S.-U.K. Relations\nWith a Brexit trade deal negotiated, attention may turn to talks between the U.S. and the U.K. over future trading arrangements.\nMarshall Gittler of BDSwiss said: “A successful Brexit is essential for the future of U.S.-U.K. relations. President-elect Biden has made it clear that a “no-deal” Brexit, particularly one that ended up damaging the Good Friday agreement, would sour U.S.-U.K. relations and imperil a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement. If the U.K. can put together a successful and cooperative relationship with the EU going forward, they can probably do so with the U.S. as well.”\nHe added that a more independent U.K. could also give the U.S. another ally in its campaign to get China to change its trade policies “as indicated by Britain’s decision to ban Huawei out of its 5G network.”\n“Recent negotiations between the EU and China suggest that the EU is more concerned with market share than with national security. Similarly, Britain will be an ally for President Biden in pursuing his climate change goals,” he said.\nOil Prices\nPeter McNally of investment research consultancy Third Bridge also noted that Brexit’s impact on the pound, and knock-ons to the U.S. dollar, could move oil prices. “If the outcome of the Brexit deal yields a fundamentally weaker U.S. dollar, it would be a further boost to oil prices, something we have been witnessing in recent months,” McNally toldBarron’s. “A weaker dollar is something that would boost that further, as oil is priced in dollars and buyers with strengthening currencies would find it cheaper.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1183164924"}