铝价飙升加剧制造业成本压力!“供应黑洞”扰动下恐进入长期上涨周期

智通财经05-06

中东战事引发的供应风险推动铝价飙升至多年高位，给从汽车制造商到啤酒罐制造商在内的企业带来了成本压力。数据显示，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝价自2月28日美国与以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来已上涨超过13%，今年迄今涨幅约19%，并一度触及2022年以来的最高水平。投行Bernstein分析师的Bob Brackett指出，铝价上涨主要是由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭所致。该海峡是中东铝出口运输的重要通道，而全球约...

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Fear of entering a long-term rising cycle under the disturbance of \"supply black hole\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f7f80179e2a469de09bdee7eb2967c","symbols_score_info":{"ACH":2,"01378":2,"02600":2,"02610":2,"FRDU":0.6,"DBB":0.9,"PICK":0.9,"CSTM":2,"GSX":0.6,"ALImain":2,"AA":2,"CENX":2,"KALU":2,"00486":2,"FRDD":0.6,"ARNC":2,"00098":2,"JPO":0.6,"01333":2,"XME":0.9},"content_text":"中东战事引发的供应风险推动铝价飙升至多年高位，给从汽车制造商到啤酒罐制造商在内的企业带来了成本压力。数据显示，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝价自2月28日美国与以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来已上涨超过13%，今年迄今涨幅约19%，并一度触及2022年以来的最高水平。投行Bernstein分析师的Bob Brackett指出，铝价上涨主要是由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭所致。该海峡是中东铝出口运输的重要通道，而全球约7%的铝供应来自该地区。他补充称，中东战事已导致相关设施被破坏，并使全球约3%的铝供应退出市场。据悉，受霍尔木兹海峡航行受阻影响，全球最大的单体冶炼厂之一——巴林铝业(Alba)因面临金属出口外运受阻与原材料补给受限的双重压力，已于3月中旬被迫启动减产计划。该公司目前已分阶段关闭了其三条主要生产线，此举直接影响了其年产能约19%的产出，旨在通过主动收缩产能来延长现有铝土矿和氧化铝库存的使用周期，以确保工厂核心部分的长期安全运行。此外，中东地区最大规模的铝生产商阿联酋环球铝业公司(EGA)在其一座冶炼厂遭到伊朗导弹袭击后停产，已就至少部分交付援引不可抗力条款。铝价上涨的影响正开始体现在企业成本端。福特汽车(F.US)首席财务官Sherry House表示，中东战争使该公司对铝这一关键原材料(用于其F-150皮卡)的前景更加不确定。这家总部位于底特律的汽车制造商预计，大宗商品带来的不利影响将超过20亿美元，约为此前预期的两倍，主要源于铝价上涨。Sherry House在上月底对分析师表示：“鉴于我们在大宗商品市场看到的波动，目前很难对2027年进行预测。就钢铁和铝而言，尤其是在中东局势爆发之前，我们已经看到全球行业出现短缺。”瑞银分析师Joseph Spak表示，铝价一直是福特汽车投资者关注的重点。自中东战争爆发以来，福特汽车股价已下跌17%，而同期标普500指数上涨了5.7%。不过，Joseph Spak在上月致客户的报告中称，华尔街对铝价的担忧“被夸大了”，并补充称福特汽车已对今年的铝价风险进行了“对冲”。从事啤酒生产和销售的莫库酒业(TAP.US)的首席财务官Tracey Joubert上周表示，运往美国中西部的铝价上涨使公司第一季度销售成本同比增加约3000万美元。这家生产Coors Light和Miller Lite的公司——六十多年来一直使用可回收铝罐——预计本季度铝价还将继续上涨。非酒精饮料生产商Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP.US)的首席财务官Anthony DiSilvestro同样将铝列为因中东战争而价格上涨的多种产品之一。他表示，如果这些更高成本持续，公司将需要制定保护利润率的应对方案。他在上月与分析师的电话会议上表示：“与许多快消品公司一样，我们直接和间接都受到中东冲突影响的大宗商品价格波动。”供应缺口短期难缓解 铝价或直冲4000美元铝供应所受的扰动短期内很难出现缓解。瑞银预计，2026年全球铝供应仅增长0.3%，低于此前预测的2.4%。该行指出，中东地区的扰动以及欧洲产能扩张空间有限是主要原因。除冲突因素外，Bob Brackett表示，铝生产需要大量能源，因此其价格也与天然气和煤炭成本相关。由于中东战争推高这些燃料价格，进一步加剧了铝价上涨压力。Bob Brackett在上周在致客户的报告中表示：“铝价会随着投入成本上升而上涨。铝价存在进一步上行风险，不仅来自供应链受扰，还来自其能源来源的中断。”此前已有分析指出，若中东地区冲突持续、并导致能源价格持续较长时间上行，或导致中东甚至全球电解铝企业的电力成本攀升，从而压缩企业利润。而考虑欧美等部分国家本身因电力供应问题复产、新增产能缓慢，全球能源成本提升或导致高成本地区停产、减产，从而进一步影响全球原铝供应，带动铝价上行。摩根大通上月更是发布研报警告称，随着全球铝市场遭遇严重且持续的供应缺口，铝行业正走向一个非常显著的供给端“黑洞”。该行认为，铝市场正在经历25年来最大供应缺口，全球铝市场已从传统意义上的周期性紧张，演变为一种结构性、持续性且难以快速修复的供给坍塌。摩根大通所谓的“黑洞”，本质上指的是，供应缺口一旦因关键冶炼产能受损而形成，即便地缘冲突边际缓和、物流条件改善，市场也无法迅速回到原有均衡。此次冲击之所以被视为近二十五年来最严峻的供给危机，不仅因为霍尔木兹海峡一度受阻削弱了原料与成品流通，更因为伊朗对阿布扎比和巴林两座关键冶炼厂的直接打击，已经把原本可能被视为“短期运输扰动”的事件，升级为实质性冶炼产能损失。这意味着市场交易的已不再只是运费与风险溢价，而是未来数个季度、甚至更长时间内的真实金属短缺。更关键的是，铝行业的供给弹性极低，使得这场危机具有显著的路径依赖特征。铝冶炼并非“价格上涨—供给即刻恢复”的典型商品行业，冶炼厂一旦停产，复产往往涉及极高的资本、能源、设备和工艺重启成本，技术上也远比市场想象中复杂，因此产能恢复通常以“年”为单位而不是以“周”或“月”为单位衡量。也正因如此，摩根大通将此次冲击定义为供给“黑洞”，其含义在于，供给缺口一旦进入市场定价框架，就不会随着停火预期或航运改善而被迅速抹平。在关键冶炼资产直接受损之后，这一逻辑已明显弱化，铝价上行开始更多反映产能损失不可逆、供给恢复滞后所带来的长期紧张，而非单纯的地缘政治情绪溢价。摩根大通强调，铝市场正在从一个长期过剩的旧叙事，切换到一个由产能破坏、替代受限和区域供应失衡主导的新叙事，而4000美元目标价在这一框架下已不再是激进情景，而是供给黑洞持续扩大的自然结果。此外，高盛在3月也曾警告称，若中东航道持续关闭导致该地区库存枯竭，铝价极有可能突破每吨4000美元的大关，进而对全球下游制造业的成本结构产生深远冲击。有着“华尔街最准策略师”称号的美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett领导的团队则发布研报称，即便新一轮中东战争暂时告一段落，全球大宗商品市场的涨势仍然将持续多年至2030年末。策略师们写道，未来几年，投资者们将继续涌入大宗商品交易市场，主要因为大宗商品交易主题将受益于全球地缘政治与宏观经济动荡态势。在美银策略师们看来，大宗商品乃最逻辑层次鲜明、“战后交易”级别最高的一条战后核心交易主线，它们押注未来几年大宗商品将取代股票，成为最大赢家。核心原因则是投资者们迫切需要对冲风险、通胀和美元走弱，而地缘政治和全球AI竞赛本质上都在强化对能源、稀土、矿产和关键资源的争夺。策略师甚至把核心逻辑概括为：谁掌握芯片、稀土、矿产和高效率能源，谁就赢得这一场覆盖全球的AI战争。 这意味着，在美银看来，战后世界的定价核心，不再只是利率和盈利，而是资源安全、供应链控制权和财政扩张。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":true,"video":{"duration":47,"video_url":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/f836918a5145403725794278093/G6hPMMe7zmAA.mp4","video_thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20fe4a0ed14da7c314329d778954d4ad"},"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1182266422","isCrawlerRequest":true}