供应趋紧之下铝价涨势如虹，汇丰上调中国宏桥目标价至41港元

智通财经01-19

国际大行汇丰(HSBC)近日发布研报称，全球铝价基准处于多年高位，并有望在今年超越历史最高纪录，主要因供应限制持续。来自汇丰的分析师团队认为铝市场供应紧张已经显现，并且随着产能高利用率及低库存状况，紧张程度将不断加剧。汇丰表示，铝市场是该机构长期看好的中国股市材料板块首选，因此将中国宏桥(01378)目标股价上调至41.00港元(原目标价37.40港元)，将中国铝业-H/A股目标价上调至15.20...

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$41","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1a1a5292691cadf0e7eddee8f03e7a","symbols_score_info":{"01378":1.5,"HSBC":1.5},"content_text":"国际大行汇丰(HSBC)近日发布研报称，全球铝价基准处于多年高位，并有望在今年超越历史最高纪录，主要因供应限制持续。来自汇丰的分析师团队认为铝市场供应紧张已经显现，并且随着产能高利用率及低库存状况，紧张程度将不断加剧。汇丰表示，铝市场是该机构长期看好的中国股市材料板块首选，因此将中国宏桥(01378)目标股价上调至41.00港元(原目标价37.40港元)，将中国铝业-H/A股目标价上调至15.20港元/14.90元人民币(原目标价12.30港元/12.10元人民币)，均维持“买入”这一乐观看涨评级。汇丰表示，铝市场紧张已非预测——而是正在发生：正如该机构此前的展望报告中所预期(《2026年展望：趋紧的供应遇上韧性需求》，铝市场在进入2026年初时已经呈现基本面趋紧态势。由于今年春节时间晚于往常时间线，提前开启了消费支出，需求在年底依然保持韧性。与此同时，中国铝产量仍受约4500万吨的有效产能上限限制，而海外新增供应有限。汇丰分析师团队强调称，这种趋紧的平衡已转化为铝价格走势。上海期货交易所的铝价已突破23，000元人民币/吨的重要关口，伦敦金属交易所LME铝价持续上行至突破3，000美元/吨，创下多年来的历史最高点位，但尚未重返2021/22年所见的历史最高峰值(分别为大约24，000元人民币/吨以及>3，800美元/吨)，这表明如果状况持续或进一步趋紧，仍然存在可观的上行潜力。不过汇丰的分析师们表示，结构性供应限制依然存在：比如，在中国市场，产能上限继续限制增量级别产出，尽管价格强劲，但汇丰认为产量大幅增长的空间很小。海外供应增长则相对温和，且日益面临中断风险。South32旗下Mozal铝厂(约0.25百万吨)确认将于3月停产，这进一步收紧供需平衡态势。由于削减的产能重启异常缓慢，且新项目投产有限，全球供应弹性仍然较低。这些因素强化了汇丰分析师团队的观点，即铝市场的供应紧张是由政策和新一轮基础设施建设周期全面驱动的，无法仅简单地通过价格持续上涨迅速解决。汇丰表示，尽管行业轮动，需求仍保持韧性：在需求方面，受汽车轻量化和电池外围强劲需求推动，与电动汽车相关的消费依然强劲。电网层面的投资则继续提供一个稳定的、为期多年期的需求来源。太阳能需求正从近期峰值全面正常化，仍是铝需求的重要贡献者。建筑层面的需求在经历多年疲软后似乎正在企稳，减轻了长期以来铝市场增长路径的不利因素。总体而言，该机构预计中国铝需求将保持强大韧性，支撑更紧张的市场平衡态势。汇丰预计中国宏桥将在2025年第四季度实现进一步盈利增长，动力来自强劲的铝价和有效的成本管理系统。展望未来，基于稳固的铝市场基本面、全球低库存水平、电网基础设施层面的持续投资以及电动汽车行业稳定增长的需求，汇丰对中国宏桥的长期盈利潜力保持乐观展望，预计2024年至2027年的盈利复合年增长率约为21%。汇丰对于中国宏桥的目标价从37.40港元上调至41.00港元，维持“买入”评级。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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