美银坚定看多IBM：目标价升至335美元，高利润软件与现金流成核心支撑

智通财经01-20

美国银行证券分析师Wamsi Mohan发表研报，将IBM(IBM.US)目标价从315美元上调至335美元，同时维持“买入”评级。该行表示，IBM拥有强劲的自由现金流前景，同时高利润率软件业务占比提升，这将抵消短期面临的不利因素。在经历了强劲的2025财年后，美银分析师预计IBM将迎来较为平缓的一年，这主要是由于2025财年末业绩趋弱以及2026财年面临的若干挑战。分析师预测，在IBM于当地时间...

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Mohan发表研报，将IBM(IBM.US)目标价从315美元上调至335美元，同时维持“买入”评级。该行表示，IBM拥有强劲的自由现金流前景，同时高利润率软件业务占比提升，这将抵消短期面临的不利因素。在经历了强劲的2025财年后，美银分析师预计IBM将迎来较为平缓的一年，这主要是由于2025财年末业绩趋弱以及2026财年面临的若干挑战。分析师预测，在IBM于当地时间1月28日公布2025财年第四季度财报时，人员结构调整措施可能导致税前利润率有所收窄。美银预计，第四季度人员结构优化相关支出将达约4亿美元，这可能使2025全年税前利润率扩张限制在约70个基点，低于管理层此前100个基点的指引。同时，较低的税率预计将部分抵消对每股收益的影响。展望2026年，美银预计IBM营收增幅将达到5%，增长动力主要来自软件业务的强劲表现，以及基础设施业务的温和增长。此外，收购Confluent(CFLT.US)的交易有望为公司2026年软件收入带来增量，但短期内可能会对公司盈利产生轻微稀释效应。“对于2026财年，IBM可能指引软件业务按固定汇率计算增长约10%，咨询业务实现低个位数增长，基础设施业务持平，整体按固定汇率计算的增长率约为5%(有机增长率约4%)。Confluent交易预计将于年中完成，我们预计将为软件收入带来约2%的非有机增长贡献。我们调整了2026财年预测数据，以反映约0.40美元的每股收益稀释，但对自由现金流影响甚微。我们预测2025财年自由现金流为140亿美元，预计2026财年指引将达150亿美元左右，保持130%的净收入与自由现金流比率。整体而言，鉴于人员结构优化及软件业务增长放缓，我们对第四季度持谨慎态度。但基于更高利润率的软件收入、强劲的自由现金流增长以及量子计算带来的潜在机遇，我们重申‘买入’评级，”美银在报告中总结道。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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