通胀降温与就业韧性料将令美联储下半年按兵不动——市场评论

投资观察02-14

NISA投资顾问公司策略师斯蒂芬·道格拉斯指出，与关税相关的通胀效应预计在未来数月仍有约三分之一有待传导至经济体系。这一态势将使经济保持稳健运行，同时促使美联储在短期内维持利率不变。

"经济正重新步入软着陆轨道，"他分析称，"劳动力市场将逐步趋稳，而关税通胀的残余影响将在上半年完成传导。"道格拉斯预计下半年商品通胀率将跌破零值水平，这将使美联储的降息时机晚于市场预期。

"我们预测今年将在9月和12月分别实施降息。"此番研判揭示了货币政策与市场预期之间的微妙时差。

（本文基于市场分析师观点整理，不构成投资建议）

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160065704?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-14 00:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1160065704","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"通胀降温与就业韧性料将令美联储下半年按兵不动——市场评论","media":"投资观察","content":"<p>NISA投资顾问公司策略师斯蒂芬·道格拉斯指出，与关税相关的通胀效应预计在未来数月仍有约三分之一有待传导至经济体系。这一态势将使经济保持稳健运行，同时促使美联储在短期内维持利率不变。</p>\n<p>\"经济正重新步入软着陆轨道，\"他分析称，\"劳动力市场将逐步趋稳，而关税通胀的残余影响将在上半年完成传导。\"道格拉斯预计下半年商品通胀率将跌破零值水平，这将使美联储的降息时机晚于市场预期。</p>\n<p>\"我们预测今年将在9月和12月分别实施降息。\"此番研判揭示了货币政策与市场预期之间的微妙时差。</p>\n<p>（本文基于市场分析师观点整理，不构成投资建议）</p>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>通胀降温与就业韧性料将令美联储下半年按兵不动——市场评论</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n通胀降温与就业韧性料将令美联储下半年按兵不动——市场评论\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2026-02-14 00:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>投资观察</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NISA投资顾问公司策略师斯蒂芬·道格拉斯指出，与关税相关的通胀效应预计在未来数月仍有约三分之一有待传导至经济体系。这一态势将使经济保持稳健运行，同时促使美联储在短期内维持利率不变。\n\"经济正重新步入软着陆轨道，\"他分析称，\"劳动力市场将逐步趋稳，而关税通胀的残余影响将在上半年完成传导。\"道格拉斯预计下半年商品通胀率将跌破零值水平，这将使美联储的降息时机晚于市场预期。\n\"我们预测今年将在9月和12...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4585","symbol_name":"ETF&股票定投概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"","article_id":"1160065704","we_media_id":"1076224072","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160065704","pubTimestamp":1771000240,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"投资观察","introduction":"关注海外资本市场一手动态","home_visible":1,"id":"1076224072","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8296859682db4b478146245e72de1922"},"summary":"NISA投资顾问公司策略师斯蒂芬·道格拉斯指出，与关税相关的通胀效应预计在未来数月仍有约三分之一有待传导至经济体系。这一态势将使经济保持稳健运行，同时促使美联储在短期内维持利率不变。\n\"经济正重新步入软着陆轨道，\"他分析称，\"劳动力市场将逐步趋稳，而关税通胀的残余影响将在上半年完成传导。\"道格拉斯预计下半年商品通胀率将跌破零值水平，这将使美联储的降息时机晚于市场预期。\n\"我们预测今年将在9月和12月分别实施降息。\"此番研判揭示了货币政策与市场预期之间的微妙时差。\n（本文基于市场分析师观点整理，不构成投资建议）","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债"},"translate_title":"Cooling inflation and employment resilience are expected to keep the Fed on hold in the second half of the year-Market Commentary","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"US7Y.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"TLT":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"BIL":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"TMF":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"TLTW":1},"content_text":"NISA投资顾问公司策略师斯蒂芬·道格拉斯指出，与关税相关的通胀效应预计在未来数月仍有约三分之一有待传导至经济体系。这一态势将使经济保持稳健运行，同时促使美联储在短期内维持利率不变。\n\"经济正重新步入软着陆轨道，\"他分析称，\"劳动力市场将逐步趋稳，而关税通胀的残余影响将在上半年完成传导。\"道格拉斯预计下半年商品通胀率将跌破零值水平，这将使美联储的降息时机晚于市场预期。\n\"我们预测今年将在9月和12月分别实施降息。\"此番研判揭示了货币政策与市场预期之间的微妙时差。\n（本文基于市场分析师观点整理，不构成投资建议）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1160065704","isCrawlerRequest":true}