What Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market

Barrons2021-04-26

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

314d0522
2021-04-26
314d0522
[思考]
- KylerLee:
  [Smile]

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152535643?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-04-26 12:03","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1152535643","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"What Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market","media":"Barrons","content":"<div>\n<p>On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-peaking-growth-means-for-the-stock-market-51619221496?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1601382232898","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Peaking Growth Means for the Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-26 12:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-peaking-growth-means-for-the-stock-market-51619221496?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-peaking-growth-means-for-the-stock-market-51619221496?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-peaking-growth-means-for-the-stock-market-51619221496?mod=hp_LATEST","article_id":"1152535643","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152535643","pubTimestamp":1619409814,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy w","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","NEM":"纽曼矿业",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BWA":"博格华纳",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ALB":"美国雅保"},"translate_title":"增长见顶对股市意味着什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ALB":0.9,"BWA":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"RTN.UK":0.9,"RYA.UK":0.9},"content_text":"On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product growing at an annualized 5.6% clip. The real number is likely to be even higher, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tool forecasting an 8.3% rise based on incoming data.\nSuch strength brings concerns about peaking growth. Just two weeks ago in this space, we highlighted the surge in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey, which hit 64.7 in March. It was a great number, but also one that will have a hard time going higher. If the ISM really is peaking, it could set the stock market up for a short, but painful, decline, warns Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha.\nNow Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider has a similar warning. He notes that the S&P 500 typically has returned 0.6% a month when growth was positive but slowing, half the monthly gain of 1.2% when it was positive and accelerating. And buying the market when the ISM is above 60—a level that usually coincides with peak growth—has led to a 1% decline during the month immediately following the peak and a gain of just 3% over the next 12 months. “[Equities] often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth first begins to slow,” Snider writes.\nNot everyone agrees with that assessment. The market’s big worry, at the moment, is over when the Fed will raise interest rates. So a deceleration in the ISM, particularly in the prices-paid component, could be met with relief because it would mean the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates to cool an overheating economy, says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “This environment is somewhat unique,” he says.\nStill, if the U.S. is starting to decelerate, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are likely to accelerate, particularly as they start to get Covid-19 under control. That means investors should consider buying economically sensitive stocks with international exposure. Goldman’s picks include gold miner Newmont (ticker: NEM), auto-parts maker BorgWarner (BWA), lithium provider Albemarle (ALB), and a basket of European stocks, including Ryanair Holdings (RYA.Ireland), Restaurant Group (RTN.UK), and H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.Sweden).\n A little diversification never hurts.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":374334927,"gmtCreate":1619417388369,"gmtModify":1634273639875,"author":{"id":"3575672525273340","authorId":"3575672525273340","name":"314d0522","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374334927","repostId":1152535643,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4139324,"gmtCreate":1619445189135,"gmtModify":1635510807240,"authorId":3574746761625491,"author":{"id":3574746761625491,"authorId":3574746761625491,"name":"KylerLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6343877b4edfb9ffddbfde9273a3a1b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":374334927,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":58,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1152535643"}