特斯拉加入标普会涨多少

刺客夜行2020-11-17

今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。 SP500 market cap 29 Trillion TELSA market cap 400 Billion 400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX 那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX? 4.6 trillion are ...

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鑫鑫洋
2020-11-17
鑫鑫洋
这文章思路清晰
进击华尔街
2020-11-17
进击华尔街
如果要炒，多少都可能，不可限量

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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg><strong>刺客夜行</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg","article_id":"1150558758","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76b3cc53dd60ecb6eab407da188d689"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150558758","pubTimestamp":1605601786,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1605601741946","name":"刺客夜行"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"今天$特斯拉$宣布加入标普。我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。盘后现在特斯拉收在462。如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"How much will Tesla rise when it joins S&P","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e75ddcc89239edbdd6f2eacf17ff6a8","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are indexed\n11.2 trillion are indexed + benchmarked\nindex不管特斯拉价格多少，必须买\nbenchmarked大多也会买，但是有一定自由度\n这两个我们可以看成上涨空间的上下边界\n4.6 trillion indexed，乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多16%\n11.2 trillion indexed + benchmark, 乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多39%\n所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。换算成dollar, 大概股价在473-566之间。\n盘后现在特斯拉收在462。差不多接近上涨区间的下边界。\n下面我们来考虑其他变量。\n1.\n对于index funds，根本不考虑价格是多少，over valued还是under valued，只要在index里面，就按权重直接买，造成的结果是，盘子越大的股票，要买的越多。\n如果下个月21号前，Tesla的涨幅比标普要大，换句话讲未来一个月特斯拉如果outperform SPX，越outperform，那么权重就会越大，买盘就越大，造成特斯拉的涨幅更大。正向循环。\n如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。\n2.\n12/18正好是今年最后四巫日。Option到期。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。\n3.\n另外还有index rebalance，其他的index也会考虑。\n4.\n别忘了还有好些short的人。所以事实上available for purchase的oustanding shares会更少些。\n综上，最差情况涨到473，目前已经差不多到了。我想明天开盘一定在这个数之上。最好情况理论值566，加入其他变量。我觉得会在600-700之间。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":307481596,"gmtCreate":1605622258315,"gmtModify":1703838624585,"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","vip":2,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这文章思路清晰","listText":"这文章思路清晰","text":"这文章思路清晰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307481596","repostId":1150558758,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":307564139,"gmtCreate":1605602499521,"gmtModify":1703838500870,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"进击华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"如果要炒，多少都可能，不可限量","listText":"如果要炒，多少都可能，不可限量","text":"如果要炒，多少都可能，不可限量","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307564139","repostId":1150558758,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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