B站真的要50美元见了吗？

妙投APP2021-08-21

8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年Q2财报。之后B站在隔夜美股市场及20日的港股市场分别跌去6.03%和4.99%。资本市场不看好B站，除了中概股的“原罪”，还要从B站自身找原因。除基本面“喜忧参半”，B站还要面对更多挑战。如监管多管齐下，可能会对B站Q3营收造成压力。B站还要亏损多久？它是否会重蹈视频行业无法盈利的覆辙？年后B站的股价一直处于下行通道，甚至有分析师提出会回落到50...

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精彩评论

大时代小访客
2021-08-23
大时代小访客
30都高了
LawrenceCW
2021-08-22
LawrenceCW
哇
- ming_5868:
  [捂脸]
- 十八顺:
  不会吧 [流泪] [流泪]
Wishonest
2021-08-22
Wishonest
再跌跌看看
- YourCFP:
  [微笑]
Youn7276
2021-08-22
Youn7276
阅！
- jiann85:
  [微笑]
- Rache13:
  Ok
北方吴大仙
2021-08-22
北方吴大仙
机会不大而且我看好 70就开始抄底了
Moonchj
2021-08-21
Moonchj
不错

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(MAU)达到2.371亿，增速38%，符合市场预期；但整体用户粘性和ARPU值略有下滑。\n\n一、增收不增利，是不想，还是不能？\n总体上，B站Q2净营收44.95亿元，同比增长72%；毛利9.89亿元，毛利率降至22%；经营亏损15.21亿元，亏损率高达34%。\n\n（数据来源：公司公告）\n从收入端来看，B站营收来自四块业务：手机游戏、增值服务（VAS）、广告、电商及其它。\n从2020年Q4开始，B站增值服务的占比就超过游戏，成为新的支柱业务；Q2这块业务营收16.34亿元，占总营收36.37%。而B站Q2的增长亮点来自广告，同比增长201%，营收首次超过10亿元，占总营收比提高至23.34%；当然，高增长也部分因为基数小，持续性待观察。B站Q2电商业务同比增长195%达5.78亿，占比与2020年持平，为13%。\n从营收结构上，B站已经实现“多轮驱动”，且更像一个互联网平台了（游戏业务后面会单独讨论）。\n\n（数据来源：公司公告）\n从成本端来看，B站Q2营收成本35.06亿元，同比增长74%。考虑到营收同比增长为72%，毛利率的些微下降来自营收端，原因可能包括高毛利的游戏业对营收贡献的下降、分成比例增加等。\nB站营收成本同样包括四部分：收入分成、内容成本、带宽及服务器、电商及其它。\nB占的收入分成是大头，Q2为17.47亿元，占营收的38.87%（2020年为36.4%），占比增长部分源于提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)。考虑到PUGV（专业用户生成视频）内容的播放量已占B站总播放量的93%，这也是其为了增长而主动选择更多让利。对B站来说，PUGV内容不仅是内容产品，还具有社交属性，能增加用户粘性。不过要注意的是，虽然B站的收入分成+内容成本仅占营收的一半多，远低于爱奇艺等平台，但其内容存在版权隐患。\n\n（数据来源：公司公告）\n从费用端来看，B站Q2总运营开支为25.10亿元，同比增长107%，且营销费、行政开支和研发支出均翻倍，这也是导致经营亏损率高于市场预期的原因。\n\n（数据来源：公司公告）\nB站董事长兼CEO陈睿曾将B站的商业模式总结为：用内容吸引用户、社区留住用户，再提供更多内容或衍生，如果用户喜欢就去消费。\n而B站Q2在增加74%的成本投入和107%的费用投入才换来72%的营收增长。即使不考虑分成和内容成本，未来仅市场费用的增加也够B站“喝一壶”。\n根据B站过往MAU和市场费用间的关系（2020Q2-Q4年实现MAU同比增速55%左右，市场费用增速区间为147%-227%；Q2MAU同比增长38%，市场费用同比增速为107%），用户获取成本在增加。为了实现2023年MAU达到4亿的目标，以及维持高增长的形象，B站必然不想更不能减少投入，增利不增收还会继续。\n二、都是尊贵的用户，谁能让B站赚更多？\n可能有人会觉得对B站持续增收不增利的论断过于“刻舟求剑”，且没考虑到用户ARPU值的提升。这部分就仔细看下B站的用户情况。\n陈睿在财报中对用户数据的介绍如下：“ MAU 总数达到2.371亿，同比增长38%”，但比Q1增加的实际值是1380万；“同期使用时长创新高，达到81分钟”，如果多看眼过往数据，B站刚上市时平均使用时长高达87分钟，2019年和2020年的平均使用时长也达到80分钟。\n以上并不是要吹毛求疵，只是让妙投会员更客观全面了解情况。当然，B站的MAU仍有上升区间，4亿目标也并非无法触及；现有用户的使用时长也较稳定。\n至于他提到的用户粘性，更通用的判断标准是DAU/MAU的值。2021年Q2，B站的DAU/MAU值同比环比均有下降。\n\n（数据来源：公司公告）\n好在B站的平均每月付费用户（MPU）Q2同比增长62%达到2090万，转化率为8.8%；ARPU值一直在下降，Q2为45.7元。\n对比看爱奇艺，Q2付费用户1.062亿，付费率超18%，ARPU值为12.53元；B站在付费用户总量和付费率提升上还有不少空间。\n\n（数据来源：公司公告）\n上面提到的B站ARPU值下降，其实和游戏业务发展萎靡有很大关系。B站移动游戏的ARPU值虽然也在下降，但2020年仍能达到223.6元；增值服务的ARPU值虽在增加，但同期也只有24.60元。\n无怪陈睿要将“游戏自研会是当前阶段的第一重点”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":832591812,"gmtCreate":1629648618336,"gmtModify":1629648618336,"author":{"id":"3561879663594351","authorId":"3561879663594351","name":"大时代小访客","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"30都高了","listText":"30都高了","text":"30都高了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832591812","repostId":1149941037,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":832395199,"gmtCreate":1629588182311,"gmtModify":1633683982895,"author":{"id":"3568626352541392","authorId":"3568626352541392","name":"LawrenceCW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962262e528e64dff78a74edaba2a5aac","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哇","listText":"哇","text":"哇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832395199","repostId":1149941037,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5603030,"gmtCreate":1629588750407,"gmtModify":1635146048824,"authorId":3532417483771819,"author":{"id":3532417483771819,"authorId":3532417483771819,"name":"ming_5868","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d89076d8bfa575b8d66e7aae75a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832395199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[捂脸]","text":"[捂脸]","html":"[捂脸]"},{"id":5603102,"gmtCreate":1629589528998,"gmtModify":1635146042758,"authorId":3501998685270291,"author":{"id":3501998685270291,"authorId":3501998685270291,"name":"十八顺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65272cb112539122118d0010eda02867","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832395199,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不会吧 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