Tesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier

Seeking Alpha2021-11-24

Summary Tesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company. I briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the ...

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Dazz
2021-11-24
Dazz
Really all in-house..
inv3st
2021-11-24
inv3st
Like ty
SoarNRise
2021-11-24
SoarNRise
Ok
Holla
2021-11-24
Holla
Like pls
- inv3st:
  ok
- 小熊家族:
  Ok
SeanSak
2021-11-24
SeanSak
Like n comment
- Holla:
  Ok
- Stingers:
  ok
Moneyong
2021-11-24
Moneyong
Like
- Moneyong:
  Ok

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Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.\n\nRidofranz/iStock via Getty Images\nWhat typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.\nWhile that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.\nThe Personal Auto Insurance Landscape\nPersonal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but two states within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.\nA UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at Progressive(PGR) or Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.\nThe personal auto market wrote about $250B in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).\n\nLemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.\nTesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering\nTesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.\nThe premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.\n\nThe Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:\n1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.\n2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.\n3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.\n4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.\n5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.\n*Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot\nThese factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.\nMany major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.\n\nSome of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.\nUnlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.\nThe Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.\n\n\n\nBased on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.\n\n\n\nLastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.\n\nCFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:\n\n At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety.\n\n\n We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference.\n\n\n It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data.\n\nTesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.\nRisks to Consider\nSo far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:\n\nIt will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like Lemonade and Root already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.\nPersonal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the Annual Shareholders’ meeting:\n\n\n Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated.\n\n\nTypically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?\n\nFinancial Impact of Tesla Insurance\nOn the 3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.\nIf Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.\nNobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.\nMusk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"\n\nWith Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.\n\nIf we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.\nPlease note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.\nConclusion\nTesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be 30% by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.\nAt this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. I know I'll be watching from the sidelines and I wouldn't bet against them!","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":874134679,"gmtCreate":1637741334819,"gmtModify":1637741334989,"author":{"id":"3580043263355101","authorId":"3580043263355101","name":"Dazz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3580043263355101","authorIdStr":"3580043263355101"},"htmlText":"Really all in-house..","listText":"Really all in-house..","text":"Really all in-house..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874134679","repostId":1141571893,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":874104150,"gmtCreate":1637738489031,"gmtModify":1637738489149,"author":{"id":"3577773488711202","authorId":"3577773488711202","name":"inv3st","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb6f0592ef761afbf6bab2267a2e76e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3577773488711202","authorIdStr":"3577773488711202"},"htmlText":"Like ty","listText":"Like ty","text":"Like ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874104150","repostId":1141571893,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":874350454,"gmtCreate":1637733377917,"gmtModify":1637733378082,"author":{"id":"3581716243499010","authorId":"3581716243499010","name":"SoarNRise","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5634c88783c2d46b153cb8e197c8e78","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3581716243499010","authorIdStr":"3581716243499010"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874350454","repostId":1141571893,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141571893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637732033,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141571893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 13:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141571893","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.\nI briefly explore the curre","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.</li> <li>I briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the newly introduced Safety Score in Texas.</li> <li>I also cover the risks and the financial impact Tesla Insurance could have.</li> <li>Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8bf7a2038aee5e70a8ab437ca3712b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ridofranz/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉保险对该公司来说是一个令人兴奋的新领域。</li><li>我简要探讨了当前的个人汽车保险前景，然后分析了特斯拉的保险产品，包括德克萨斯新推出的安全评分。</li><li>我还承保特斯拉保险可能产生的风险和财务影响。</li><li>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一夜之间取得成功。尽管如此，我不认为特斯拉会成功颠覆和竞争个人汽车保险市场。</li></ul>Ridofranz/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> What typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.<blockquote>当你想到个人汽车保险时，你通常会想到什么？对于普通消费者来说，保险很难理解，被认为很贵，而且有些无聊。</blockquote> While that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.<blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但不一定是这样的。特斯拉（TSLA）已在加州推出特斯拉保险，最近又在德克萨斯推出。在本文中，我们将简要探讨个人汽车保险的前景，更深入地挖掘特斯拉个人汽车保险产品，并看看它对特斯拉的未来意味着什么。</blockquote> The Personal Auto Insurance Landscape<blockquote>个人汽车保险格局</blockquote> Personal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but&nbsp;two states&nbsp;within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.<blockquote>除了两个州（弗吉尼亚州和新罕布什尔州）之外，美国所有州都必须购买个人汽车保险。大多数保险公司使用传统因素（信用评分、年龄、性别、地点、驾驶和车辆历史等）为保险定价。）可以选择加入基于使用的保险（UBI）计划。</blockquote> A UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at&nbsp;Progressive(PGR) or&nbsp;Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.<blockquote>UBI计划有助于使您的汽车保单成本与您的驾驶习惯保持一致。以进步(PGR)或旅行者(TRV)计划为例。尽管如此，传统保险公司仍然首先使用上述传统因素，并提供可选的UBI产品。</blockquote> The personal auto market wrote about&nbsp;$250B&nbsp;in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).<blockquote>2020年，个人汽车市场的保费约为2500亿美元。随着时间的推移，特斯拉有很多机会产生有意义的收入。然而，目前排名前10的玩家约占2020年总承保保费的75%或3/4。State Farm的市场份额最高，为16.2%，其次是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司或Geico(BRK.A)、Progressive和Allstate(ALL)等公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2897c9ed5291406d6d1c560c1e8794da\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.<blockquote>Lemonade(LMND)、Metromile(MILE)（最近被Lemonade收购）、Root(ROOT)以及其他仅根据驾驶方式而不是传统因素为个人汽车保险定价的公司正试图颠覆这个庞大的行业。特斯拉现在也在尝试做同样的事情。</blockquote> Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering<blockquote>特斯拉的个人汽车保险产品</blockquote> Tesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.<blockquote>特斯拉于2019年通过州国民保险首次在加州推出个人汽车保险。最近，该公司通过承保公司红点县互助保险公司在德克萨斯州提供个人汽车保险，在其保险之旅中又向前迈出了一步。值得注意的是，特斯拉不是一家承保公司，它与承保公司合作，以特斯拉保险的名义提供其产品。</blockquote> The premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.<blockquote>保费取决于您驾驶的车辆、您提供的地址、您驾驶的次数以及您选择的保险范围。该公司没有使用信用、年龄、性别和索赔历史等传统变量来为保险定价。与德克萨斯一起，特斯拉还推出了名为安全评分的UBI计划，作为确定保费的附加因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacd23bb5a7dae5da6bf2ccf5415b666\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:<blockquote>安全评分基于驾驶行为，根据五个安全因素为驾驶员分配0到100的分数：</blockquote> 1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.<blockquote>1.每1,000英里前方碰撞警告：在由于车辆前方的物体而可能发生碰撞的情况下，向驾驶员提供听觉和视觉警报。保持安全距离，注意周围的交通有助于提高分数。</blockquote> 2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.<blockquote>2.急刹车*：定义为一秒钟内车速下降超过6.7英里/小时。尽管有定义，我想我们都知道什么是急刹车。通过在减速、停车或对环境变化做出反应时尽早踩下制动踏板，可以提高安全得分。</blockquote> 3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.<blockquote>3.激进转弯*：定义为在一秒钟内车辆向左/向右的速度增加超过8.9英里/小时。还是那句话，当我们看到激进转弯时，我们都知道它。安全得分可以通过逐渐而不是激进地转弯、变道或转弯来提高。</blockquote> 4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.<blockquote>4.以下不安全*：特斯拉汽车测量自身速度、前车速度和两车距离。根据这些测量结果，特斯拉计算车头时距，或者如果您前面的车辆突然停下来，您必须做出反应并停车的秒数。不安全跟车是车辆车头时距小于1.0秒的时间相对于车辆车头时距小于3.0秒的时间的比例。只有当您的车辆以至少50英里/小时的速度行驶时，才会测量不安全跟随。安全得分可以通过不尾随或靠近你前面的车辆来提高，这样你就有足够的时间做出反应。</blockquote> 5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.<blockquote>5.强制自动驾驶脱离：如果您在Autopilot期间将手从方向盘上移开，则会向驾驶员发送音频和视频警告。其中三个警告会导致自动驾驶系统在剩余行程中脱离。</blockquote> *Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot<blockquote>*自动驾驶时不计入安全评分公式</blockquote> These factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.<blockquote>这些因素由特斯拉模型使用车辆上的各种传感器和自动驾驶软件直接测量。尽管这是特斯拉保险之旅向前迈出的重要一步，但安全评分并不是什么新鲜事。</blockquote> Many major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.<blockquote>许多美国主要个人汽车保险公司都推出了可选的UBI计划，为驾驶员分配分数。尽管如此，有几个有意义的项目使特斯拉与众不同。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Some of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉在德克萨斯引入的一些因素与其他保险公司不同。例如，Progressive没有前方碰撞警告或不安全跟随作为因素。另一方面，Progressive将深夜驾驶和总体驾驶减少作为其UBI计划中的因素。随着更多数据的获得，特斯拉可能会在安全评分中引入新因素并调整现有因素。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Unlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.</li> <li>The Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.<blockquote><li>与其他主要运营商不同，特斯拉不需要在车辆中安装额外的设备来捕捉驾驶行为。特斯拉使用车内的特定功能根据实际驾驶来评估溢价。</li><li>安全评分每天更新，以提供驾驶安全的实时反馈。每日安全评分相结合（最多30天），根据当月的驾驶活动提供溢价。以下是保费如何根据每月分数而变化的示例。传统保险公司不提供每日更新和每月保费变化。相反，在收到分数和保费变化之前，通常会有6个月的监控期。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddc2c7837f9b0fcc32dca3d7729b1b2\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Based on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.<blockquote><ul><li>基于安全评分的引入以及与Repoint Insurance的合作，特斯拉保险是德克萨斯最便宜的全险选择。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb75573bd60617bd436ac602c36bd13\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Lastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.<blockquote><ul><li>最后，也是最重要的是，由于特斯拉汽车内部的技术，该公司将能够利用第一方数据来预测碰撞频率。其他保险公司可能必须与不同的制造商合作，在销售点捕获汽车内的数据，特斯拉已经拥有第一方数据。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:<blockquote>首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn解释道：</blockquote> At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference. It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data. Tesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.<blockquote>在特斯拉，因为我们的汽车是联网的，因为它们本质上是轮子上的计算机，所以我们可以获得大量数据来评估驾驶汽车的驾驶员的属性，以及这些属性是否与安全相关。我们能够回去分析这些数据，从中我们学到了两件事。首先，使用安全评分的客户与不使用安全评分的客户发生碰撞的概率要低30%。这是一个相当大的区别。这意味着产品正在发挥作用，客户正在对它做出反应。我们研究的第二件事是基于实际数据的碰撞概率是多少，作为驾驶员安全得分的函数。这与我们的模型一致。最值得注意的是，如果与较低的安全层相比，您处于最高安全层，则根据实际数据，碰撞概率存在多重差异。特斯拉正在研究数百个不同的变量和数十亿英里的驾驶历史，以预测损失频率并单独为每种风险定价。随着特斯拉销售更多汽车和人们驾驶更多汽车，数据集将继续增长并变得更好。特斯拉计划在每个拥有汽车的主要市场推出个人汽车保险。</blockquote> Risks to Consider<blockquote>需要考虑的风险</blockquote> So far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:<blockquote>到目前为止，特斯拉似乎在利用这一新领域方面处于有利地位。虽然这可能是真的，但我们还必须考虑几个重要的风险：</blockquote> <ul> <li>It will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like&nbsp;Lemonade&nbsp;and&nbsp;Root&nbsp;already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.<blockquote><ul><li>颠覆这个由前10家公司主导的庞大行业并不容易。前10名和其他拥有一个世纪保险敏锐度的公司已经开始引入不断改进的UBI计划。此外，Lemonade和Root等新兴保险纯公司已经或正在努力扩大其UBI计划。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Personal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the&nbsp;Annual Shareholders’ meeting:<blockquote><li>个人汽车保险是一项复杂的业务，各州都有严格的规定。在这片土地上航行并不容易。埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在年度股东大会上是这样描述的：</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated. <ul> <li>Typically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司。是的。所以，保险是一个监管迷宫的程度是疯狂的。就像是被设计成让你们感觉不好。我不知道是不是——但这确实非常困难。所以，有无数的申请，你必须等待一堆时间。这是漫长而复杂的，而且很多都是各州的。大部分是逐州的。所以，我们只是在全国各州处理申请。然后各州也有不同的规定。所以，你实际上不能——法律上不允许在每个州提供相同的保险。所以，你必须调整软件，使每个州都不一样。基本上很复杂。<ul><li>通常情况下，个人汽车保险的单位经济性很差。即使是市场上最好的汽车保险公司之一Progressive，在考虑损失和费用（包括索赔处理成本）后，利润率也达到约6%。凭借特斯拉的数字化经验，费用很可能低于传统的车险销售和服务。尽管安全评分表明碰撞的可能性降低了30%，但损失率更难预测。这就引出了一个问题：该公司将通过其保险产品获得什么样的利润？</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> Financial Impact of Tesla Insurance<blockquote>特斯拉保险的财务影响</blockquote> On the&nbsp;3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.<blockquote>在2020年第三季度财报看涨期权上，马斯克指出，特斯拉的目标是到2030年汽车年销量达到2000万辆。这是一个崇高的目标，但让我们以此为基础，看看特斯拉保险可能对财务状况产生什么影响。</blockquote> If Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.<blockquote>如果特斯拉到2030年每年能够销售2000万辆汽车，而特斯拉保险的平均成本为1,795美元（基于之前分享的德克萨斯州结果），那么假设每辆车都选择特斯拉保险，到2030年特斯拉保险将产生约360亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Nobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.<blockquote>没有人知道到2030年特斯拉是否会每年销售2000万辆汽车，特斯拉保险的平均成本会是多少，或者客户是否真的会购买特斯拉保险而不是其他保险公司。尽管如此，看看可能会发生什么是有帮助的。如下图所示，即使特斯拉到2030年汽车年销量达不到2000万辆，它仍然可以从其保险产品中产生可观的收入。</blockquote> Musk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"<blockquote>Musk在3Q20财报看涨期权上特别表示，“坦率地说，保险很可能占汽车业务价值的30%、40%。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71469743b3b6f7ffab4202e00bd2a12f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> With Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.<blockquote>有了特斯拉保险，与底线估计相比，更容易得出顶线估计。目前，没有办法知道特斯拉保险产品的利润率会是多少，但是，我们可以估计。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1219fdafad7124ac4604ee9267da6e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"222\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> If we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.<blockquote>如果我们假设利润率为6%（基于Progressive）以及到2030年每年销售2000万辆汽车的最佳情况，特斯拉将产生约2.2 B美元的收入。如果特斯拉能够实现更高的利润率，随着时间的推移，它将对整体利润做出有意义的贡献。</blockquote> Please note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.<blockquote>请注意，上面的例子仅仅是高层次的预测，并不一定准确。例如，到2030年每年销售2000万辆汽车是一个全球目标，美国以外的某些国家要么不需要保险，要么待遇有很大不同。随着特斯拉保险公司将其产品扩展到更多州以及我们收到更多信息，预测该公司的财务状况将变得更加容易。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be&nbsp;30%&nbsp;by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一夜之间取得成功。在不同的州推出该产品可能需要很长时间。到2030年，电动汽车在美国新车销量中的总体份额预计将达到30%，这意味着采用将缓慢而稳定。随着故事的展开，特斯拉将必须成功地与历史悠久且崭露头角的个人汽车运输公司竞争，通过各州复杂的法规，并努力创造有意义的收入和利润。</blockquote> At this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. I know I'll be watching from the sidelines and I wouldn't bet against them!<blockquote>在这一点上，我不知道特斯拉是否能够在个人汽车行业内颠覆和竞争，但时间会证明一切。我知道我会在一旁看着，我不会和他们打赌！</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Insurance: A New And Exciting Frontier<blockquote>特斯拉保险：令人兴奋的新领域</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-24 13:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.</li> <li>I briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the newly introduced Safety Score in Texas.</li> <li>I also cover the risks and the financial impact Tesla Insurance could have.</li> <li>Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8bf7a2038aee5e70a8ab437ca3712b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ridofranz/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉保险对该公司来说是一个令人兴奋的新领域。</li><li>我简要探讨了当前的个人汽车保险前景，然后分析了特斯拉的保险产品，包括德克萨斯新推出的安全评分。</li><li>我还承保特斯拉保险可能产生的风险和财务影响。</li><li>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一夜之间取得成功。尽管如此，我不认为特斯拉会成功颠覆和竞争个人汽车保险市场。</li></ul>Ridofranz/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> What typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.<blockquote>当你想到个人汽车保险时，你通常会想到什么？对于普通消费者来说，保险很难理解，被认为很贵，而且有些无聊。</blockquote> While that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.<blockquote>虽然这可能是真的，但不一定是这样的。特斯拉（TSLA）已在加州推出特斯拉保险，最近又在德克萨斯推出。在本文中，我们将简要探讨个人汽车保险的前景，更深入地挖掘特斯拉个人汽车保险产品，并看看它对特斯拉的未来意味着什么。</blockquote> The Personal Auto Insurance Landscape<blockquote>个人汽车保险格局</blockquote> Personal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but&nbsp;two states&nbsp;within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.<blockquote>除了两个州（弗吉尼亚州和新罕布什尔州）之外，美国所有州都必须购买个人汽车保险。大多数保险公司使用传统因素（信用评分、年龄、性别、地点、驾驶和车辆历史等）为保险定价。）可以选择加入基于使用的保险（UBI）计划。</blockquote> A UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at&nbsp;Progressive(PGR) or&nbsp;Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.<blockquote>UBI计划有助于使您的汽车保单成本与您的驾驶习惯保持一致。以进步(PGR)或旅行者(TRV)计划为例。尽管如此，传统保险公司仍然首先使用上述传统因素，并提供可选的UBI产品。</blockquote> The personal auto market wrote about&nbsp;$250B&nbsp;in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).<blockquote>2020年，个人汽车市场的保费约为2500亿美元。随着时间的推移，特斯拉有很多机会产生有意义的收入。然而，目前排名前10的玩家约占2020年总承保保费的75%或3/4。State Farm的市场份额最高，为16.2%，其次是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司或Geico(BRK.A)、Progressive和Allstate(ALL)等公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2897c9ed5291406d6d1c560c1e8794da\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.<blockquote>Lemonade(LMND)、Metromile(MILE)（最近被Lemonade收购）、Root(ROOT)以及其他仅根据驾驶方式而不是传统因素为个人汽车保险定价的公司正试图颠覆这个庞大的行业。特斯拉现在也在尝试做同样的事情。</blockquote> Tesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering<blockquote>特斯拉的个人汽车保险产品</blockquote> Tesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.<blockquote>特斯拉于2019年通过州国民保险首次在加州推出个人汽车保险。最近，该公司通过承保公司红点县互助保险公司在德克萨斯州提供个人汽车保险，在其保险之旅中又向前迈出了一步。值得注意的是，特斯拉不是一家承保公司，它与承保公司合作，以特斯拉保险的名义提供其产品。</blockquote> The premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.<blockquote>保费取决于您驾驶的车辆、您提供的地址、您驾驶的次数以及您选择的保险范围。该公司没有使用信用、年龄、性别和索赔历史等传统变量来为保险定价。与德克萨斯一起，特斯拉还推出了名为安全评分的UBI计划，作为确定保费的附加因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dacd23bb5a7dae5da6bf2ccf5415b666\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:<blockquote>安全评分基于驾驶行为，根据五个安全因素为驾驶员分配0到100的分数：</blockquote> 1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.<blockquote>1.每1,000英里前方碰撞警告：在由于车辆前方的物体而可能发生碰撞的情况下，向驾驶员提供听觉和视觉警报。保持安全距离，注意周围的交通有助于提高分数。</blockquote> 2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.<blockquote>2.急刹车*：定义为一秒钟内车速下降超过6.7英里/小时。尽管有定义，我想我们都知道什么是急刹车。通过在减速、停车或对环境变化做出反应时尽早踩下制动踏板，可以提高安全得分。</blockquote> 3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.<blockquote>3.激进转弯*：定义为在一秒钟内车辆向左/向右的速度增加超过8.9英里/小时。还是那句话，当我们看到激进转弯时，我们都知道它。安全得分可以通过逐渐而不是激进地转弯、变道或转弯来提高。</blockquote> 4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.<blockquote>4.以下不安全*：特斯拉汽车测量自身速度、前车速度和两车距离。根据这些测量结果，特斯拉计算车头时距，或者如果您前面的车辆突然停下来，您必须做出反应并停车的秒数。不安全跟车是车辆车头时距小于1.0秒的时间相对于车辆车头时距小于3.0秒的时间的比例。只有当您的车辆以至少50英里/小时的速度行驶时，才会测量不安全跟随。安全得分可以通过不尾随或靠近你前面的车辆来提高，这样你就有足够的时间做出反应。</blockquote> 5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.<blockquote>5.强制自动驾驶脱离：如果您在Autopilot期间将手从方向盘上移开，则会向驾驶员发送音频和视频警告。其中三个警告会导致自动驾驶系统在剩余行程中脱离。</blockquote> *Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot<blockquote>*自动驾驶时不计入安全评分公式</blockquote> These factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.<blockquote>这些因素由特斯拉模型使用车辆上的各种传感器和自动驾驶软件直接测量。尽管这是特斯拉保险之旅向前迈出的重要一步，但安全评分并不是什么新鲜事。</blockquote> Many major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.<blockquote>许多美国主要个人汽车保险公司都推出了可选的UBI计划，为驾驶员分配分数。尽管如此，有几个有意义的项目使特斯拉与众不同。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Some of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.<blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉在德克萨斯引入的一些因素与其他保险公司不同。例如，Progressive没有前方碰撞警告或不安全跟随作为因素。另一方面，Progressive将深夜驾驶和总体驾驶减少作为其UBI计划中的因素。随着更多数据的获得，特斯拉可能会在安全评分中引入新因素并调整现有因素。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Unlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.</li> <li>The Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.<blockquote><li>与其他主要运营商不同，特斯拉不需要在车辆中安装额外的设备来捕捉驾驶行为。特斯拉使用车内的特定功能根据实际驾驶来评估溢价。</li><li>安全评分每天更新，以提供驾驶安全的实时反馈。每日安全评分相结合（最多30天），根据当月的驾驶活动提供溢价。以下是保费如何根据每月分数而变化的示例。传统保险公司不提供每日更新和每月保费变化。相反，在收到分数和保费变化之前，通常会有6个月的监控期。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ddc2c7837f9b0fcc32dca3d7729b1b2\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Based on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.<blockquote><ul><li>基于安全评分的引入以及与Repoint Insurance的合作，特斯拉保险是德克萨斯最便宜的全险选择。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb75573bd60617bd436ac602c36bd13\" tg-width=\"734\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <ul> <li>Lastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.<blockquote><ul><li>最后，也是最重要的是，由于特斯拉汽车内部的技术，该公司将能够利用第一方数据来预测碰撞频率。其他保险公司可能必须与不同的制造商合作，在销售点捕获汽车内的数据，特斯拉已经拥有第一方数据。</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:<blockquote>首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn解释道：</blockquote> At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety. We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference. It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data. Tesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.<blockquote>在特斯拉，因为我们的汽车是联网的，因为它们本质上是轮子上的计算机，所以我们可以获得大量数据来评估驾驶汽车的驾驶员的属性，以及这些属性是否与安全相关。我们能够回去分析这些数据，从中我们学到了两件事。首先，使用安全评分的客户与不使用安全评分的客户发生碰撞的概率要低30%。这是一个相当大的区别。这意味着产品正在发挥作用，客户正在对它做出反应。我们研究的第二件事是基于实际数据的碰撞概率是多少，作为驾驶员安全得分的函数。这与我们的模型一致。最值得注意的是，如果与较低的安全层相比，您处于最高安全层，则根据实际数据，碰撞概率存在多重差异。特斯拉正在研究数百个不同的变量和数十亿英里的驾驶历史，以预测损失频率并单独为每种风险定价。随着特斯拉销售更多汽车和人们驾驶更多汽车，数据集将继续增长并变得更好。特斯拉计划在每个拥有汽车的主要市场推出个人汽车保险。</blockquote> Risks to Consider<blockquote>需要考虑的风险</blockquote> So far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:<blockquote>到目前为止，特斯拉似乎在利用这一新领域方面处于有利地位。虽然这可能是真的，但我们还必须考虑几个重要的风险：</blockquote> <ul> <li>It will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like&nbsp;Lemonade&nbsp;and&nbsp;Root&nbsp;already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.<blockquote><ul><li>颠覆这个由前10家公司主导的庞大行业并不容易。前10名和其他拥有一个世纪保险敏锐度的公司已经开始引入不断改进的UBI计划。此外，Lemonade和Root等新兴保险纯公司已经或正在努力扩大其UBI计划。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Personal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the&nbsp;Annual Shareholders’ meeting:<blockquote><li>个人汽车保险是一项复杂的业务，各州都有严格的规定。在这片土地上航行并不容易。埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在年度股东大会上是这样描述的：</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated. <ul> <li>Typically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司。是的。所以，保险是一个监管迷宫的程度是疯狂的。就像是被设计成让你们感觉不好。我不知道是不是——但这确实非常困难。所以，有无数的申请，你必须等待一堆时间。这是漫长而复杂的，而且很多都是各州的。大部分是逐州的。所以，我们只是在全国各州处理申请。然后各州也有不同的规定。所以，你实际上不能——法律上不允许在每个州提供相同的保险。所以，你必须调整软件，使每个州都不一样。基本上很复杂。<ul><li>通常情况下，个人汽车保险的单位经济性很差。即使是市场上最好的汽车保险公司之一Progressive，在考虑损失和费用（包括索赔处理成本）后，利润率也达到约6%。凭借特斯拉的数字化经验，费用很可能低于传统的车险销售和服务。尽管安全评分表明碰撞的可能性降低了30%，但损失率更难预测。这就引出了一个问题：该公司将通过其保险产品获得什么样的利润？</li></ul></blockquote></li> </ul> Financial Impact of Tesla Insurance<blockquote>特斯拉保险的财务影响</blockquote> On the&nbsp;3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.<blockquote>在2020年第三季度财报看涨期权上，马斯克指出，特斯拉的目标是到2030年汽车年销量达到2000万辆。这是一个崇高的目标，但让我们以此为基础，看看特斯拉保险可能对财务状况产生什么影响。</blockquote> If Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.<blockquote>如果特斯拉到2030年每年能够销售2000万辆汽车，而特斯拉保险的平均成本为1,795美元（基于之前分享的德克萨斯州结果），那么假设每辆车都选择特斯拉保险，到2030年特斯拉保险将产生约360亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Nobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.<blockquote>没有人知道到2030年特斯拉是否会每年销售2000万辆汽车，特斯拉保险的平均成本会是多少，或者客户是否真的会购买特斯拉保险而不是其他保险公司。尽管如此，看看可能会发生什么是有帮助的。如下图所示，即使特斯拉到2030年汽车年销量达不到2000万辆，它仍然可以从其保险产品中产生可观的收入。</blockquote> Musk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"<blockquote>Musk在3Q20财报看涨期权上特别表示，“坦率地说，保险很可能占汽车业务价值的30%、40%。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71469743b3b6f7ffab4202e00bd2a12f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"248\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> With Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.<blockquote>有了特斯拉保险，与底线估计相比，更容易得出顶线估计。目前，没有办法知道特斯拉保险产品的利润率会是多少，但是，我们可以估计。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1219fdafad7124ac4604ee9267da6e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"222\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> If we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.<blockquote>如果我们假设利润率为6%（基于Progressive）以及到2030年每年销售2000万辆汽车的最佳情况，特斯拉将产生约2.2 B美元的收入。如果特斯拉能够实现更高的利润率，随着时间的推移，它将对整体利润做出有意义的贡献。</blockquote> Please note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.<blockquote>请注意，上面的例子仅仅是高层次的预测，并不一定准确。例如，到2030年每年销售2000万辆汽车是一个全球目标，美国以外的某些国家要么不需要保险，要么待遇有很大不同。随着特斯拉保险公司将其产品扩展到更多州以及我们收到更多信息，预测该公司的财务状况将变得更加容易。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Tesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be&nbsp;30%&nbsp;by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.<blockquote>特斯拉保险公司还有很长的路要走，但它不会一夜之间取得成功。在不同的州推出该产品可能需要很长时间。到2030年，电动汽车在美国新车销量中的总体份额预计将达到30%，这意味着采用将缓慢而稳定。随着故事的展开，特斯拉将必须成功地与历史悠久且崭露头角的个人汽车运输公司竞争，通过各州复杂的法规，并努力创造有意义的收入和利润。</blockquote> At this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. I know I'll be watching from the sidelines and I wouldn't bet against them!<blockquote>在这一点上，我不知道特斯拉是否能够在个人汽车行业内颠覆和竞争，但时间会证明一切。我知道我会在一旁看着，我不会和他们打赌！</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471362-tesla-stock-personal-auto-insurance-a-new-and-exciting-frontier\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471362-tesla-stock-personal-auto-insurance-a-new-and-exciting-frontier","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141571893","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla Insurance is a new and exciting frontier for the company.\nI briefly explore the current personal auto insurance landscape and then analyze the Tesla Insurance Offering including the newly introduced Safety Score in Texas.\nI also cover the risks and the financial impact Tesla Insurance could have.\nTesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. Nonetheless, I wouldn't bet against Tesla successfully disrupting and competing within the personal auto insurance market.\n\nRidofranz/iStock via Getty Images\nWhat typically comes to mind when you think of personal auto insurance? For the average consumer, insurance is hard to understand, considered expensive, and somewhat boring.\nWhile that might be true, it doesn't have to be this way. Tesla (TSLA) has introduced Tesla insurance in California and more recently in Texas. With this article, we’ll briefly explore the personal auto insurance landscape, dig deeper into the Tesla personal auto insurance product, and look at what it could mean for Tesla moving forward.\nThe Personal Auto Insurance Landscape\nPersonal auto insurance is a mandatory requirement in all but two states within the U.S (Virginia and New Hampshire). Most insurance carriers price insurance using traditional factors (credit score, age, gender, location, driving and vehicle history, etc.) with the option of enrolling into a Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) program.\nA UBI program helps align your auto policy’s cost with your driving habits. Take a look at Progressive(PGR) or Travelers’ (TRV) programs as examples. Nonetheless, traditional insurers still use the aforementioned traditional factors first and foremost with an optional UBI offering.\nThe personal auto market wrote about $250B in premium in 2020. There is a ton of opportunity for Tesla to generate meaningful revenue over time. However, the current top 10 players accounted for ~75% or 3/4 of the total written premiums in 2020. State Farm had the highest market share at 16.2%, followed by the likes of Berkshire Hathaway or Geico (BRK.A), Progressive, and Allstate (ALL).\n\nLemonade (LMND), Metromile (MILE) (recently acquired by Lemonade), Root (ROOT), and others that are only pricing personal auto insurance on how one drives instead of traditional factors are trying to disrupt this massive industry. Tesla is now trying to do the same.\nTesla’s Personal Auto Insurance Offering\nTesla first introduced personal auto insurance in California in 2019 through State National Insurance. More recently, the company took the next step forward in its insurance journey by offering personal auto insurance in Texas through the underwriting company Redpoint County Mutual Insurance. It's important to note that Tesla isn't an underwriting company, it is partnering with underwriting companies to offer its product under the Tesla Insurance name.\nThe premium is determined based on what vehicle you drive, your provided address, how much you drive, and what coverage you select. The company is not using traditional variables like credit, age, gender, and claim history to price their insurance. With Texas, Tesla also introduced their UBI program called the Safety Score as an additional factor in determining premium.\n\nThe Safety Score is based on driving behavior and assigns the driver a score from 0 to 100 based on five safety factors:\n1. Forward Collision Warnings per 1,000 Miles:Audible and visual alerts provided to the driver in situations where a possible collision could occur due to an object in front of the vehicle. Maintaining a safe distance and paying attention to the traffic around you helps improve your score.\n2. Hard Braking*:Defined as a decrease in the vehicle’s speed larger than 6.7 mph, in one second. Despite the definition, I think we all know what hard braking is. The Safety score can be improved by engaging the brake pedal early when slowing down, coming to a stop, or reacting to a change in the environment.\n3. Aggressive Turning*:Defined as an increase in vehicle’s speed to the left/right greater than 8.9 mph, in one second. Again, we all know aggressive turning when we see it. The Safety Score can be improved by turning, changing lanes, or rounding a corner gradually instead of aggressively.\n4. Unsafe Following*:Tesla vehicles measure their own speed, the speed of the vehicle in front of them and the distance between the two vehicles. Based on these measurements, Tesla calculates Headway, or the number of seconds you would have to react and stop if the vehicle in front of you came to a sudden stop. Unsafe following is the proportion of time where your vehicle’s headway is less than 1.0 seconds relative to the time that your vehicle’s headway is less than 3.0 seconds. Unsafe following is only measured when your vehicle is traveling at least 50 mph. The Safety Score can be improved by not tailgating or driving close to the vehicle in front of you so you have enough time to react.\n5. Forced Autopilot Disengagement:If you remove your hands from the steering wheel during Autopilot, an audio and visual warning is sent to the driver. Three of these warnings result in Autopilot system disengagement for the remainder of a trip.\n*Not factored into the Safety Score formula when on Autopilot\nThese factors are measured directly by the Tesla models using various sensors on the vehicle and Autopilot software. Although this is a significant step forward in Tesla’s insurance journey, The Safety Score isn’t something that’s new.\nMany major U.S personal auto insurers have introduced optional UBI programs that assign a score to the driver. Nonetheless, there are a couple of meaningful items that differentiate Tesla.\n\nSome of the factors introduced by Tesla in Texas are different to what other insurance carriers have. For example, Progressive doesn’t have forward collision warnings or unsafe following as factors. On the other hand, Progressive includes late night driving and driving less overall as factors within their UBI program. Tesla is likely to introduce new factors and tweak existing factors within the Safety Score as more data becomes available.\nUnlike other major carriers, Tesla doesn't require and additional device to be installed in the vehicle to capture driving behavior. Tesla uses specific features within the vehicle to evaluate premium based on actual driving.\nThe Safety Score is updated daily to provide real-time feedback on driving safety. The daily Safety Scores are combined (up to 30 days) to provide a premium based on the months’ driving activity. Below is an example of how the premium could change based on the score by month. Traditional insurance carriers don’t offer daily updates and change in premiums by month. Instead, it’s typical to have a monitoring period of 6 months before receiving a score and change in premium.\n\n\n\nBased on the introduction of the Safety Score and partnership with Repoint Insurance, Tesla Insurance is the cheapest option for full coverage in Texas.\n\n\n\nLastly, and most importantly, the company will be able to leverage first party data to predict collision frequency due to the technology within Tesla cars. Other insurance carriers will likely have to partner with different manufacturers to capture data within cars at the point of sale, Tesla already has first party data.\n\nCFO, Zachary Kirkhorn,explained:\n\n At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car, and whether those attributes correlate with safety.\n\n\n We've been able to go back and analyze that data and we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using safety score versus not is 30% lower. That's a pretty big difference.\n\n\n It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiplex difference in probability of collision based upon actual data.\n\nTesla is looking at hundreds of different variables and billions of miles of driving history to predict loss frequency and price each risk individually. The dataset will continue to grow and get better as Tesla sells more cars and as people drive more. Tesla is planning to launch personal auto insurance in every major market in which they have cars.\nRisks to Consider\nSo far it must seem that Tesla is in a great position to capitalize on this new frontier. While that might be true, we also have to consider a couple of important risks:\n\nIt will not be easy to disrupt this massive industry dominated by the top 10 companies. The top 10 and others have a century of insurance acumen have already moved to introduce ever improving UBI programs. Additionally, up and coming insurance pure plays like Lemonade and Root already have or are working to expand on their UBI programs.\nPersonal auto insurance is a complex business with strict regulations by state. It won't be easy to navigate this landscape. Here’s how Elon Musk described it at the Annual Shareholders’ meeting:\n\n\n Tesla insurance. Yes. So, like the degree in which insurance is a regulatory labyrinth is insane. It was like designed to be hard feeling you guys. I don’t know if it’s – but it certainly is very difficult. So, there is a zillion applications, and you have to wait for a bunch of time. And get it’s come long and complicated and a lot of it is state-by-state. Most of it is state-by-state. So, we are just processing applications in states across the country. And then the states also have different regulations. So, you can’t actually – aren’t legally allowed to offer the same insurance in every state. So, you have got to adjust the software to be different every state. It’s basically very complicated.\n\n\nTypically, the unit economics within personal auto insurance have been poor. Even Progressive, one of the best auto insurers on the market, aims for a profit margin of ~6% after accounting for losses and expenses (including claim handling costs). With Tesla’s digital experience, the expenses are likely to be lower than traditional auto insurance sales and service. The loss ratio is much harder to predict despite the Safety Score indicating a 30% lower likelihood of a collision. It begs the question: what type of margins will the company achieve with its insurance offering?\n\nFinancial Impact of Tesla Insurance\nOn the 3Q20 earnings call, Musk noted that Tesla has a goal to hit 20 million in vehicle sales per year by 2030. That's a lofty goal but let's use that as a basis to see what impact Tesla Insurance could have on the financials.\nIf Tesla can sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030 and the average cost of Tesla Insurance is $1,795 (based on TX results shared earlier), Tesla Insurance would generate ~$36 billion in revenue by 2030 assuming every vehicle chooses Tesla Insurance.\nNobody knows if Tesla will sell 20 million vehicles per year by 2030, what the average cost of Tesla Insurance will look like, or if customers will actually buy Tesla Insurance over other carriers. Nonetheless, it is helpful to look at what could happen. As you can see below, even if Tesla doesn't reach 20M in vehicles sales per year by 2030, it could still generate meaningful revenue from its insurance offering.\nMusk specifically stated on the 3Q20 earnings call that \"insurance could very well be 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.\"\n\nWith Tesla Insurance, it's easier to derive top line estimates compared to bottom line estimates. Currently, there is no way to tell what the profit margin for Tesla's insurance product will look like, but, we can estimate.\n\nIf we assume a profit margin of 6% (based on Progressive) and the best case scenario of 20M vehicles sold per year by 2030, Tesla will generate ~$2.2B of income. If Tesla Insurance can achieve a higher profit margin, it will make a meaningful contribution to overall profit over time.\nPlease note that the above examples are merely high level projections and won't be accurate in all likelihood. For example, the 20 million vehicle sales per year by 2030 is a global target and Insurance in certain countries outside the U.S is either not required or treated much differently. It will be easier to predict what the financials for Tesla Insurance could look like as the company expands its products into additional states and as we receive more information.\nConclusion\nTesla Insurance has a long runway ahead but it won't be an overnight success. It will likely take significant time to launch the product in different states. The overall share of new car sales that are EVs within the U.S is expected to be 30% by 2030, meaning that adoption will be slow and steady. As the story unfolds, Tesla will have to successfully compete with age-old and up and coming personal auto carriers, navigate through complex state by state regulations, and try to generate meaningful revenue and profit.\nAt this point, I don't know if Tesla will be able to disrupt and compete within the personal auto industry, but time will tell. 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