市场在两种叙事之间“大幅波动”：“战争快结束了”vs “霍尔木兹海峡会长期关闭”

华尔街见闻03-12

原油市场周二经历了一场多空信号交织的"信息风暴"。从美国战略石油储备释放到伊朗总统表态，从霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险到特朗普宣称战争"即将结束"，油价在单日内数度逆转，最终收涨约5%。摩根大通交易员指出，当日新闻头条同时为两种截然对立的市场叙事提供了支撑：一是冲突降级、油价企稳的"出口匝道"叙事，二是霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭的"持续风险"叙事。市场在两者之间剧烈摇摆，油价波动率一度回升至上周日夜间的高点附近...

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Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1"},"translate_title":"Markets 'swing wildly' between two narratives: 'The war is almost over' vs' The Strait of Hormuz will be closed for a long time'","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d773fdcf23a94e32c320ae3feff090ad","symbols_score_info":{"GS":1,"JPM":1,"GSX":0.6,"DUG":0.79,"JPMO":0.6,"IEA":1},"content_text":"原油市场周二经历了一场多空信号交织的\"信息风暴\"。从美国战略石油储备释放到伊朗总统表态，从霍尔木兹海峡封锁风险到特朗普宣称战争\"即将结束\"，油价在单日内数度逆转，最终收涨约5%。摩根大通交易员指出，当日新闻头条同时为两种截然对立的市场叙事提供了支撑：一是冲突降级、油价企稳的\"出口匝道\"叙事，二是霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭的\"持续风险\"叙事。市场在两者之间剧烈摇摆，油价波动率一度回升至上周日夜间的高点附近。高油价持续压制股市，标普500指数当日收跌，债券市场亦遭遇抛售，收益率全线上行5至8个基点。事态在盘后进一步发酵。据报道一艘油轮在波斯湾发生爆炸，油价随即走高，股市同步下挫，令尾盘短暂出现的股债油\"脱钩\"行情迅速瓦解。利多信号：伊朗释放停火条件，储备释放提振情绪摩根大通交易员将当日下午2时15分出现的一条头条视为关键的积极信号——伊朗总统Pezeshkian发推表示，停火取决于美国和以色列承诺不再发动未来打击。摩根大通认为，这是市场一直等待的、来自伊朗方面的\"退出策略\"信号。据央视新闻消息，当地时间3月11日晚，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬在其社交平台发文称，结束当前由美国和以色列挑起的战争的“唯一途径”，是承认伊朗的合法权利、支付战争赔偿，并由国际社会提供防止未来侵略行为的坚定保障。与此同时，国际能源署（IEA）成员国宣布同意释放4亿桶石油储备，全球协调行动在一定程度上缓解了供应担忧。特朗普当日亦多次发表偏鸽派表态：他在东部时间上午9时宣称\"与伊朗的战争即将结束，伊朗几乎什么都不剩\"；下午12时15分表示美军已摧毁伊朗几乎所有布雷船只；下午12时30分称石油公司应使用霍尔木兹海峡；下午1时则承诺将为途经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供\"充分安全保障\"。上述表态在短期内多次压低油价，显示市场对冲突降级的预期仍具一定弹性。利空信号：轰炸持续，海峡护航协调需数周然而，空方同样有充分的论据。摩根大通交易员指出，中东地区的军事打击仍在持续——美国国防部长Hegseth宣称，当日是整场战争中出动战机最多、轰炸机最多、打击次数最多的一天。东部时间下午3时30分，以色列和黎巴嫩上空出现大规模轰炸，将油价推至当日高点。法国总统马克龙的表态亦令市场承压。他表示，协调霍尔木兹海峡船只护航\"需要数周时间\"，而目前该海峡对美国海军护航而言仍\"过于危险\"。据新华社，法国总统马克龙11日称，当前中东地区紧张局势下，七国集团（G7）成员应协调行动，促使霍尔木兹海峡尽快恢复航行通畅。法国媒体援引马克龙的话报道，根据法方或其伙伴掌握的情报，他无法确认伊朗已在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷。此外，据报道美国联邦调查局（FBI）发出警告，称伊朗可能对加利福尼亚州发动无人机袭击，消息一出，油价骤然拉升，股市同步下挫。盘后，波斯湾油轮爆炸事件进一步强化了供应中断的现实风险，令多空天平再度向利空方向倾斜。极端尾部风险：右侧轧空行情一触即发尽管当前美股市场情绪偏空，高盛合伙人John Flood在接受媒体采访时警告，市场同样存在剧烈上行的风险。他指出，对冲基金总杠杆率目前接近历史最高水平，主要由通过宏观产品（指数及ETF）持续加仓空头所驱动。据高盛大宗经纪数据，美国宏观产品空头敞口占美国总市值的比例目前处于2022年9月以来最高水平，在过去五年中位于第93百分位。\"一旦出现宣布冲突结束的头条，指数可能出现急剧上涨，\"Flood表示，\"可能是直线拉升2%至3%，而其中大部分将来自宏观产品的空头回补。\"与此同时，市场流动性趋于稀薄，ETF交易量占全市场日成交额的比例已连续七个交易日维持在35%以上，接近2020年新冠疫情期间创下的10连日纪录。Flood警告，流动性不足将令未来数周股市波动性进一步加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.40.0","shortVersion":"4.40.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1137985575","isCrawlerRequest":true}