土耳其里拉反弹40%！股市却3天6熔断！发生了什么？

第一财经2021-12-21

土耳其总统埃尔多安补贴存款新政造里拉历史最大涨幅，但围绕通胀和经济的担忧并未化解。汇率波动对资本市场的冲击仍在延续，土耳其股市连续第三个交易日触发熔断。在前一天自历史低位反弹23%后，土耳其里拉/美元汇率周二早盘一度上涨近18%。造成汇率剧烈波动的直接原因是此前土耳其总统埃尔多安（Tayyip Erdogan）公布了包括维护本币储户利益在内的系列稳定汇率政策。然而汇率波动对资本市场的冲击仍在...

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精彩评论

金融难民
2021-12-22
金融难民
薅一下土耳其羊毛也就将将够白宫下个月开的工资吧
天天天天涨停板
2021-12-21
天天天天涨停板
土耳其的房子还能买吗？
Sam Ang
2021-12-21
Sam Ang
阅
- LNM888:
  ok
股神拉菲特吃腰子
2021-12-21
股神拉菲特吃腰子
围土救中
- 华华为:
  好
- 瀚妈:
  Ok
心愿大魔王
2021-12-21
心愿大魔王
涨成这样跌一下也无所谓

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The stock market blew out in 3 days and 6 days! What happened here?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f12fada1f90d8ec5f193de910a23846","symbols_score_info":{"TBB":0.9,"WFC":0.9},"content_text":"土耳其总统埃尔多安补贴存款新政造里拉历史最大涨幅，但围绕通胀和经济的担忧并未化解。汇率波动对资本市场的冲击仍在延续，土耳其股市连续第三个交易日触发熔断。\n\n在前一天自历史低位反弹23%后，土耳其里拉/美元汇率周二早盘一度上涨近18%。造成汇率剧烈波动的直接原因是此前土耳其总统埃尔多安（Tayyip Erdogan）公布了包括维护本币储户利益在内的系列稳定汇率政策。\n然而汇率波动对资本市场的冲击仍在延续，里拉早盘跳水一度令土耳其股市下跌5%，连续第三个交易日触发熔断，恢复交易后跌幅再次扩大至7%以上，触发日内第二次熔断，围绕该国通胀、经济、汇率的冲击波将持续多久？\n\n一名男子走过土耳其伊斯坦布尔的一处货币兑换点（新华社图）\n稳汇率组合拳推动最强反弹\n土耳其里拉今年以来迭创历史低点，里拉/美元一度失守18关口，最近一个月区间最大跌幅近40%，因投资者担心埃尔多安推动货币宽松会导致通胀螺旋上升。\n面对严峻的经济形势，埃尔多安周一在内阁会议结束后宣布数项新措施以遏制近期里拉波动。其中最重要的一项是推出金融替代方案，为本币储蓄因里拉贬值而蒙受的损失提供补偿，为存款提供担保，以减少汇率波动对储户的影响。他说，土耳其公民不必将里拉储蓄兑换成外汇， 他将鼓励里拉储蓄。\n除了补贴损失以外，埃尔多安还表示，将取消对土耳其债券的预扣税，计划把公司税率降低1个百分点。埃尔多安补充道，土耳其央行的降息将在“几个月内”使通胀下降。他重申，金融市场、汇率和价格的波动并不是基于经济基本面。他强调，土耳其不缺外汇，外汇很充足，央行的外汇储备将增加到1350~1500亿美元，外汇投机者无法让土耳其从前进道路上撤退。\n新政在外汇市场得到积极回应，周一尾盘土耳其里拉/美元从低位反弹超过4000个基点，突破13.50一线，日内25%反弹幅度也是里拉历史上最佳表现。\n根据土耳其央行的数据，由于里拉多年来的贬值，超过一半的当地人储蓄是外币和黄金。此次埃尔多安新政旨在稳定市场信心，通过公共财政向土耳其储户支付补偿，然而这被认为可能会让土耳其政府陷入了恶性循环，如果里拉汇率未来大幅贬值，他们将可能面临巨额赤字危机。\n面对跌跌不休的汇率，埃尔多安依然在为自己的低利率政策辩护，称基于低利率的新经济模式“不会回头”。其主要目标是旨在利用汇率优势和增加投资和出口来实现经常账户顺差，并结束对外债的依赖。土耳其总统府首席顾问把“新经济模式”定义为“在新经济模式项下支持低利率环境下的投资，保持经济增长和就业的可持续性。\n土耳其银行协会（TBB）负责人卡卡尔（Alpaslan Cakar）表示，财政部将承担这些措施的成本。卡卡尔介绍说，目前国有银行的信贷利率接近央行政策利率，未来将采取一定措施将黄金储蓄纳入经济体系。公告发布后，约有10亿美元在市场上被售出。\n什么令土耳其股市连续三个交易日熔断\n统计显示，土耳其里拉的3个月波动率已经达到1999年10月以来的最高水平，这也对该国股市造成严重冲击。土耳其基准股指伊斯坦布尔100指数周二早盘再次下跌5%，触发熔断。\n这已经是该指数连续第三个交易日触及下跌熔断。上周五土耳其股市高开低走触发了两次熔断，交易所决定暂停股票、股票衍生品和债券回购市场的交易近一小时，在土耳其央行介入干预市场失败后恐慌情绪席卷市场。虽然土耳其里拉/美元汇率20日最低触及18.3的历史新低，伊斯坦布尔100指数重挫近8%暂停交易，随着午盘后里拉汇率企稳指数跌幅收窄至1.4%。\n今天波动卷土重来，截至发稿时，伊斯坦布尔100指数下跌7.7%，触发日内第二次熔断。\n\n土耳其股市大跌超7%，连续第三天熔断。\n通胀依然是困扰土耳其经济和里拉汇率的痛点，不少机构建议土央行应该提高利率来控制物价，否则该国经济将被置于恶性通胀和金融危机的风险之中。最新数据显示，11月该国CPI同比增长21%。然而面对土耳其总统埃尔多安的压力，土央行自9月以来已经累计降息了500个基点， 里拉对美元、欧元和英镑汇率年内贬值超50%。\n外界正密切关注持续三个月的里拉动荡能否画上句号，标普和惠誉最近将土耳其信用展望降至负面。\nOANDA亚太区高级市场分析师哈雷（Jeffrey Halley）表示，里拉是“所有反弹之母”，但仍不清楚政府将如何实施新措施。“浏览一下这些新措施，我就不知道它们将如何制定和执行，特别是在短时间内。”他说。\n富国银行外汇策略师麦基那（Brendan McKenna）则指出，埃尔多安的最新声明可能有助于提振土耳其里拉汇率，但这取决于可信度，以及存款人是否相信这是一项切实可行的政策，而目前土政府机构信誉普遍不高，所以得到里拉储蓄者的强力支持可能会面临挑战。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":691964562,"gmtCreate":1640128178348,"gmtModify":1640128178348,"author":{"id":"3577141242132863","authorId":"3577141242132863","name":"金融难民","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dc1314eab6cf40dfe1cb68bb1cd0d06","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"薅一下土耳其羊毛也就将将够白宫下个月开的工资吧","listText":"薅一下土耳其羊毛也就将将够白宫下个月开的工资吧","text":"薅一下土耳其羊毛也就将将够白宫下个月开的工资吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691964562","repostId":1119557360,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691065684,"gmtCreate":1640099264652,"gmtModify":1640099264652,"author":{"id":"3513743822381928","authorId":"3513743822381928","name":"天天天天涨停板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d3bcdd2c49a8ec314d84d8d0f1b24e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"土耳其的房子还能买吗？","listText":"土耳其的房子还能买吗？","text":"土耳其的房子还能买吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691065684","repostId":1119557360,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":691085881,"gmtCreate":1640098461407,"gmtModify":1640098461529,"author":{"id":"4095237511427410","authorId":"4095237511427410","name":"Sam 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