美联储年内降息预期升温持久战拖累经济增长成主因——市场聚焦

投资观察01:40

随着中东冲突持续发酵，美国通胀预期攀升正强化市场对利率长期维持高位甚至再度加息的押注。然而旷日持久的战事很可能转化为经济活动逆风，最终迫使美联储转向降息轨道。

"当前局势正从通胀叙事更多转向增长叙事，"联博基金分析师斯科特·迪马吉奥指出。他预计下半年经济将显现放缓迹象，美联储可能因此启动降息程序。鉴于国债收益率已远超其估算的公允价值，迪马吉奥正增持国债头寸，认为债券配置价值凸显。

尽管冲突演进可能引发市场波动，但迪马吉奥强调："若经济增长路径符合我们预测，利率水平有望从当前位置进一步下行。"

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

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美联储年内降息预期升温 持久战拖累经济增长成主因——市场聚焦

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美联储年内降息预期升温持久战拖累经济增长成主因——市场聚焦