Futures Rise, Europe And China Bounce With US Closed For Holiday

zerohedge2021-09-06

It may be a holiday in the US, but US equity futures are once again levitating and on the verge of new all time highs, while global shares posted their longest winning streak in three months on Monday...

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2021-09-06
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Meanwhile in the US, S&P futs rose 0.2% to 4,544 while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.3%.\nIn Europe the STOXX index of 600 European companies was 0.7% higher, inching closer to August record peaks, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 0.9%. Other majors added ~0.6% with tech, household & personal goods and insurance doing much of the heavy lifting. Real estate is the only sector in the red. S&P futures follow Europe, rising 0.2%. Luxury firms LVMH, Kering and Hermes led gains on France’s CAC 40 Index, with Bryan Garnier noting that China’s “common prosperity” goal won’t hurt all luxury companies the same way while helping expand the country’s middle class -- a positive overall for the sector; LVMH shares were up 2% as of 12:20pm in Paris while Kering, the owner of Gucci, gains 1.6%; Hermes gained 1.8%. LVMH shares had shed 7% in August, as investors jumped out of the expensive luxury sector amid worries about the new policy in China, a crucial growth engine for the industry. “Common prosperity” policy “does not mean ‘killing’ rich people,” Bryan Garnier analyst Loic Morvan writes in a note. Elsewhere, here are some of the biggest European movers today:\n\nNorsk Hydro shares jump as much as 5% to the highest level since July 2008 after the aluminum price climbed because of political unrest in Guinea.\nScor shares gain as much as 3.4% after JPMorgan raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight from neutral.\nLeonardo shares rise as much as 2.3% after the group’s CEO said on Friday that the company plans to proceed with the IPO of its U.S. unit DRS “as soon as conditions allow.”\nDechra Pharmaceuticals shares fall as much as 9.5% after the company posted results that met estimates. Stifel cuts its rating to hold, noting little upside in the stock.\nEQT AB shares drop as much as 6.4%, seeing $2 billion wiped off the company’s market value after analysts at Nordea Bank cut their recommendation on the stock to sell.\nSpie shares lose as much as 4.7% after the company said it’s submitting an offer to buy Engie’s Equans unit and plans to use a combination of debt and equity to fund the transaction.\n\nInvestors were also still assessing the fallout from the September payrolls report, which showed a much smaller increase in jobs than expected, at just 235,000, but also a sharp pickup in wages, hinting at stagflation. The latter was enough to nudge longer-dated Treasury yields higher and steepen the yield curve, even as markets speculated over whether the Federal Reserve might not start tapering until later than previously thought.\n“Expectations of a delay in Fed tapering as well as a new administration in Japan is supporting equity markets and we expect this to continue,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “Buy-on-dip is as robust as ever, taking negative news such as U.S. nonfarm payrolls as good news which is typical of an advanced carry trade.”\nInvestors “are now already betting on the Fed delaying tapering,” Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades, wrote in emailed comments.“Even if the prospect of sustained monetary support is helping to lift market sentiment, today’s session is likely to stay muted but technical,”especially given the holiday in the U.S. and lack of macro data releases, he said.\n“Employment decelerated sharply in August, with little indication of a pickup in labour supply,” said Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. “This puts the Fed in a quandary as it balances risks of a sharp demand slowdown against those of tight supply and inflation...We still expect the Fed to signal tapering in September, but now expect it to begin in December not November. QE will likely end by the middle of 2022.”\nEarlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, boosted by a rally in Japan on prospects of better economic and pandemic policies under a new leader. Chinese shares also jumped. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose about 0.6% overnight to the highest since late July, while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8%, on track to close at a two-month high, as communication services and technology shares led the advance.  Gains in Asia were led by Japan, where the equity benchmark rose to a 31-year high on wagers for new economic policies once Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga steps down.Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.8% to a five-month top, extending a rally on hopes a new prime minister there would bring added fiscal spending (and thus even more debt-monetizing QE).  Hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing through fiscal and monetary policy lifted Chinese blue chips 1.9%.\nJapan’s Nikkei 225 gauge was among top-performing benchmarks, while the Topix extended gains from a more than 30-year high after Japan’s prime minister’s exit was announced Friday. “As Suga’s rising unpopularity partly stems from a perceived inability on his part to manage the Covid-19 pandemic, the new leadership will have to address this issue,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. “This seems to bring high hopes of further economic stimulus to aid businesses and also bolstering of healthcare systems to tackle rising Covid-19 cases.”\nChinese stocks rose overall, with the Hang Seng Tech Index ending the day higher. Tencent shares were among the top contributors to the Asian benchmark’s rise as Citigroup said its to-be-launched League of Legends Mobile game could buoy sentiment about China’s gaming industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing also jumped as Goldman Sachs raised its price target on expectations of a price hike for wafers. Sentiment toward Asian stocks has improved since late August on optimism of gradual tapering by the Federal Reserve. Disappointing U.S. payroll growth data on Friday reinforced that view, as the economy added 235,000 jobs in August - the smallest increase in seven months.\nIn rates, the rise in U.S. 10-year yields to 1.33% limited some of the pressure on the dollar from the poor payrolls print, though its index still touched a one-month low before steadying at 92.207. Cash Treasurys were closed on Monday. Fixed income was also quiet in Europe ahead of this week’s risk events. Bunds bear flatten a touch, gilts bull steepen; both settling off extremes of the morning’s trade. Italy leads a modest tightening in peripheral spreads. Long-end Spain lags after reports the sovereign intends to raise 5 billion euros from a debut green debt deal.\nIn FX, the dollar was changing hands versus the yen at 109.90, while the euro stood at $1.1868 after hitting a five-week top of $1.1908 on Friday. currencies traded in a tight range with a hint of USD outperformance. AUD, SEK and NZD are at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. Indonesia’s rupiah and the Thai baht led most emerging Asian currencies higher as gains in regional equities boosted risk appetite. The Taiwan dollar climbed, touching the strongest level since early June. Indonesia’s rupiah advances for a third day, aided by foreign fund inflows into the nation’s bonds and equities.\nThe European Central Bank holds its policy meeting this weekand a number of policy hawks have been calling for a step back in the bank’s huge asset-buying programme, though President Christine Lagarde has sounded more dovish.Euro zone sovereign bond yields barely budged on Monday. In early trade, Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield was steady at -0.36%. “We expect the ECB to announce a reduced pace of Q4 PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme) at its September meeting on the back of easier financial conditions,” said analysts at TD Securities. “All other policy levers are likely to be left on hold, with inflation forecasts revised sharply up this year and next. Communication risks are high, and Lagarde will want to avoid sounding overly hawkish, instead emphasising ‘persistence’.”\nIn commodities, oil slid after Saudi Arabia slashed prices of all crude grades to Asian customers, while leaving prices to northwestern Europe and the United States steady. While futures rebounded from Asia’s lows, WTI remains ~0.9% lower but recovers above $68.50; Brent returns back below $72 after a short-lived bounce.\n\nThe prospect of a later start to Fed tapering proved only fleetingly positive for non-yielding gold, which stood at $1,825 an ounce, having reached its highest since mid-June at $1,833.80. L\nAluminum hit the highest in over a decade on the LME as political unrest in Guinea fueled concerns over supply of the raw material needed to make the metal. A unit of the military seized power and suspended the constitution, raising the possibility of disruption to bauxite shipment from the key global supplier.LME lead and nickel lag peers, dropping over 1%.\nBitcoin was up for a sixth day, trading around $51,700 apiece, while Ethereum continued to coil just under $4,000 waiting for the next major short squeeze that will take it to new record highs and $10,000 thereafter.\nThere is nothing on the US calendar today due to Labor day. In Germany, we got the July factory orders (3.4% vs -1.0 Exp.), August construction PMI (49.5, Last 49.5) and UK August construction PMI (55.2, exp. 56.9).\n* * *\nDB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap\nAll of a sudden after 18 months at home I’m going to a DB conference this week and I’ll also be back in the office for a day. My wife is hosting a “he’s finally gone back to the office” party at home. Talking of parties we hosted a huge children’s party for the twins 4th birthday on Saturday. Given the lockdowns of the last year we wanted to do something special but boy was it stressful. Indeed I’m still recovering from having 70 screaming kids running loose and shouting in my ears. Good preparation for my first “live” team meeting back.\nThe champagne corks might be about to go off in the offices of the more hawkish European member states’ central banks this week as an important ECB meeting (Thursday) will be the main highlight. They could use it to announce the start of the end of the PEPP (more later). Before that though, today is a US holiday (Labor Day) with tomorrow and Wednesday Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year). So the week will likely get off to a slow start.\nElsewhere we’ll get monetary policy decisions from Australia (tomorrow), Canada (Wednesday), and Russia (Friday), and prior reports from Bloomberg have suggested that President Biden could decide who the next Fed Chair is from around this week. In terms of other data, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the German ZEW (tomorrow), US JOLTS (Wednesday), China CPI/PPI (Thursday) and US PPI (Friday).\nThe ECB meeting on Thursday is likely the most important event though. At this meeting, the Governing Council are due to conduct a joint assessment of financing conditions and the outlook for inflation, which will be the basis for a recalibration of the pace of PEPP net purchases. The big question for investors will be whether the ECB slows down these purchases, and recent comments by Chief Economist Lane implied that the hurdle to decelerating purchases might be lower than the market had assumed, as he played down the broader significance of a deceleration. Furthermore, we’ve also had the flash CPI estimate that’s showed inflation was running at +3.0% in August, the highest level in nearly a decade. In their preview (link here), our European economists are of the view that an announcement of slower purchases is slightly more likely at this meeting than in December. So it could be a taper week.\nElsewhere it’ll be interesting to see what the Fed speakers make of Friday’s payrolls report. NY President Williams' (dove) has a speech on the economic outlook on Wednesday. Dallas' Kaplan (hawk / non-voter) talks on Wednesday and he has been a proponent of a September taper so will he wobble? Elsewhere Cleveland's Mester (hawk / non-voter) also talks on Friday.\nFriday's jobs report had something for everyone. Weak payrolls but signs of supply constraints in the details. The headline (235k vs. 1053k last month including revisions) and private (243k vs. 798k) payrolls were below the consensus of 733k and 610k, respectively. It seems the Fed are disproportionately focused on this headline number but there was strength elsewhere. Both the headline U-3 (5.2% vs. 5.4%) and U-6 (8.8% vs. 9.2%) rates improved amidst a 509k gain in employment and 318k decline in unemployment. In addition, the prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio improved a couple of tenths to 78% and prime-age participation held steady at 81.8%. Average earnings were at +4.3% against +3.9% expected. Perhaps this explains why 10 year yields ended the day around +4bps higher even with the substantial payrolls miss. It may also tell us a bit more about the positioning of the market now. We had many days of strong data in the early summer while rates rallied hard. The technicals back then were phenomenal and the market short. The technicals are now far less strong.\nWe’ll get an early chance to see an alternative view of the labour market with Wednesday's JOLTS report even if it refers to July. This report has shown great tightness in labour markets of late with quits rates around record highs and vacancy yields at records low. Elsewhere on employment, Thursday's jobless claims will be interesting with Federal UI benefits ending this week for all states. As such we could see a bigger decline in initial claims, though such a fall may wait for another week. As of mid-August, there were still 9.2mn people collecting either PUA or PEUC, most of whom will lose all income support in the coming weeks. While this may provide some relief with respect to the labor shortage it could also leave some light on income which may impact consumption.\nBack to central banks the most interesting outside of the ECB will be the RBA tomorrow where our economist (link here) is expecting that they will reverse their taper decision, and announce that they’ll continue to purchase government bonds at the current average pace of A$5bn per week, rather than tapering to A$4bn per week.\nAsian markets have started the week on the front foot with the Nikkei (+1.80%), Hang Seng (+0.51%), Shanghai Comp (+1.02%) and India’s Nifty (+0.47%) all gaining ground. The Kospi (-0.04%) is flattish. US and Euro Futures are pretty flat. Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices are down -1.12% after Saudi Arabia slashed crude prices for Asian buyers, raising the prospect of competition between OPEC+ producers to gain/maintain market share.\nTurning to the latest on the pandemic, Italy’s Public Administration Minister Renato Brunetta said that the country will decide by the end of September whether vaccines will become mandatory for all people aged 12 and over. The law will be passed if the country hasn’t reached a vaccination level between 80% and 90%. Here in the UK, the government will decide by the end of September on whether to make it mandatory to provide vaccine certification for entry to large venues where infection risk may be higher. The UK Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi further said that the government hasn’t yet decided on whether to roll out vaccines to healthy 12- to 15-year-olds, but if the move does go ahead, then parental consent would be needed.\nRecapping last week now and global markets saw some divergence as ECB members grew more hawkish and Fed officials stuck to their more dovish tones, with economic data partially reinforcing both views. US equities finished the week just off their highs with the S&P 500 just worse than unchanged (-0.03%) on Friday but finishing up +0.58% over the course of the week. There was a shift to defensives and growth stocks with the NASDAQ gaining +1.55% last week (+0.21% Friday) while cyclicals, such as US banks (-3.69%), were on the back foot. European equities, which are more cyclically focused, underperformed as the STOXX 600 ended the week marginally (-0.09%) lower after Friday’s -0.56% loss.\nThe divergent central bank tones was most apparent in sovereign debt performance. US 10yr Treasury yields ended the week up +1.5bps, most of that coming on Friday’s +3.9bp gain despite a weaker-than-expected employment report as markets looked at other aspects of the report and ahead to the upcoming supply outlook after the holiday weekend. On the other hand, hawkish comment ahead of the ECB meeting saw bond yields in Europe move higher across much of the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) reaching their highest level in over 6 weeks. Peripheral bonds in southern Europe sold off similarly, with 10yr Italian (+7.4bps), Spanish (+4.2bps), Portuguese (+5.0bps), and Greek (+8.9bps) yields all climbing.\nOutside of the employment report on Friday, global composite PMIs for August slowed from the previous reading, but remained in strong expansionary territory in Europe and the US. The final Euro area composite PMI was down 0.5pts from the initial reading at 59.0, while Germany’s figure fell 0.6pts to 60.0. Meanwhile the US saw the composite PMI stay at 55.4, which is the lowest reading in eight months as the pace of growth seems to have definitively peaked back in May. The US ISM services PMI fell 2.4pts to 61.7 last month while the commentary continues to highlight supply chain disturbances and labour shortages. Finally, Euro Area retail sales for July showed a -2.3% slowdown (0.0% expected), after the previous month was revised up 0.3pp to 1.8%. The drop is reflective of the surge in cases at that time due to the delta variant.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":817686983,"gmtCreate":1630941123042,"gmtModify":1632905028314,"author":{"id":"3576114766686283","authorId":"3576114766686283","name":"yagami00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1308dff6ba6fd183873772b3927192c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576114766686283","idStr":"3576114766686283"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817686983","repostId":1112027349,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112027349","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630931530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112027349?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Futures Rise, Europe And China Bounce With US Closed For Holiday<blockquote>美国假期休市，期货上涨，欧洲和中国反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112027349","media":"zerohedge","summary":"It may be a holiday in the US, but US equity futures are once again levitating and on the verge of n","content":"It may be a holiday in the US, but US equity futures are once again levitating and on the verge of new all time highs, while global shares posted their longest winning streak in three months on Monday, aided by fading odds of an imminent taper coupled with talk of more stimulus in Japan and China, while oil slid as the Saudis cut prices for Asian customers by more than twice the expected amount in a sign the world’s largest crude exporter wants to entice buyers to take more of its barrels.<blockquote>这可能是美国的假期，但美国股指期货再次悬浮，并处于历史新高的边缘，而全球股市周一创下三个月来最长的连涨势头，这得益于即将缩减购债规模的可能性减弱，加上日本和中国谈论更多刺激措施，而油价下跌，因为沙特将亚洲客户的价格下调了预期的两倍多，这表明全球最大的原油出口国希望吸引买家购买更多石油。</blockquote> The labor day holiday in the US means trading conditions will be extremely thin, which helped MSCI’s all-country world index gain 0.2%, touching a new record level and on course for its seventh consecutive closing high. Meanwhile in the US, S&amp;P futs rose 0.2% to 4,544 while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7daf99f5478922a369f5869041a610b8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote>美国劳动节假期意味着交易条件将极其清淡，这帮助MSCI所有国家的世界指数上涨0.2%，t创下历史新高并有望连续第七次收盘新高与此同时，在美国，标准普尔期货上涨0.2%，至4,544点，而纳斯达克期货小幅上涨0.3%。</blockquote> In Europe the STOXX index of 600 European companies was 0.7% higher, inching closer to August record peaks, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 0.9%. Other majors added ~0.6% with tech, household &amp; personal goods and insurance doing much of the heavy lifting. Real estate is the only sector in the red. S&amp;P futures follow Europe, rising 0.2%. Luxury firms LVMH, Kering and Hermes led gains on France’s CAC 40 Index, with Bryan Garnier noting that China’s “common prosperity” goal won’t hurt all luxury companies the same way while helping expand the country’s middle class -- a positive overall for the sector; LVMH shares were up 2% as of 12:20pm in Paris while Kering, the owner of Gucci, gains 1.6%; Hermes gained 1.8%. LVMH shares had shed 7% in August, as investors jumped out of the expensive luxury sector amid worries about the new policy in China, a crucial growth engine for the industry. “Common prosperity” policy “does not mean ‘killing’ rich people,” Bryan Garnier analyst Loic Morvan writes in a note. Elsewhere, here are some of the biggest European movers today:<blockquote>在欧洲，600家欧洲公司的斯托克指数上涨0.7%，小幅接近8月份的历史峰值，而欧洲斯托克50指数上涨0.9%。其他专业增长了约0.6%，其中科技、家庭和个人用品以及保险承担了大部分重任。房地产是唯一亏损的板块。标普期货跟随欧洲上涨0.2%。奢侈品公司路威酩轩集团(LVMH)、开云集团(Kering)和爱马仕(Hermes)领涨法国CAC 40指数，布莱恩·卡尼尔(Bryan Garnier)指出，中国的“共同繁荣”目标不会以同样的方式伤害所有奢侈品公司，同时有助于扩大该国的中产阶级——这对该行业来说总体上是积极的；截至巴黎中午12:20，LVMH股价上涨2%，Gucci母公司开云集团(Kering)上涨1.6%；爱马仕上涨1.8%。LVMH股价在8月份下跌了7%，原因是投资者担心中国的新政策而退出了昂贵的奢侈品行业，而中国是该行业的重要增长引擎。Bryan Garnier分析师Loic Morvan在一份报告中写道，“共同繁荣”政策“并不意味着‘杀死’富人”。在其他地方，以下是当今欧洲一些最大的推动者：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Norsk Hydro shares jump as much as 5% to the highest level since July 2008 after the aluminum price climbed because of political unrest in Guinea.</li> <li>Scor shares gain as much as 3.4% after JPMorgan raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight from neutral.</li> <li>Leonardo shares rise as much as 2.3% after the group’s CEO said on Friday that the company plans to proceed with the IPO of its U.S. unit DRS “as soon as conditions allow.”</li> <li>Dechra Pharmaceuticals shares fall as much as 9.5% after the company posted results that met estimates. Stifel cuts its rating to hold, noting little upside in the stock.</li> <li>EQT AB shares drop as much as 6.4%, seeing $2 billion wiped off the company’s market value after analysts at Nordea Bank cut their recommendation on the stock to sell.</li> <li>Spie shares lose as much as 4.7% after the company said it’s submitting an offer to buy Engie’s Equans unit and plans to use a combination of debt and equity to fund the transaction.</li> </ul> Investors were also still assessing the fallout from the September payrolls report, which showed a much smaller increase in jobs than expected, at just 235,000, but also a sharp pickup in wages, hinting at stagflation. The latter was enough to nudge longer-dated Treasury yields higher and steepen the yield curve, even as markets speculated over whether the Federal Reserve might not start tapering until later than previously thought.<blockquote><ul><li>由于几内亚政治动荡，铝价攀升，Norsk Hydro股价上涨5%，至2008年7月以来的最高水平。</li><li>摩根大通将Scor股票评级从中性上调至跑赢大盘后，Scor股价上涨3.4%。</li><li>莱昂纳多首席执行官周五表示，该公司计划“在条件允许的情况下”尽快推进其美国子公司DRS的IPO，该公司股价上涨2.3%。</li><li>Dechra Pharmaceuticals公布符合预期的业绩后，该公司股价下跌9.5%。Stifel将其评级下调至持有，认为该股上涨空间不大。</li><li>在北欧联合银行(Nordea Bank)分析师下调该股卖出建议后，EQT AB股价下跌6.4%，公司市值蒸发20亿美元。</li><li>Spie表示将提交收购Engie旗下Equans部门的要约，并计划使用债务和股权相结合的方式为交易提供资金，该公司股价下跌4.7%。</li></ul>投资者还在评估9月份就业报告的影响，该报告显示就业岗位增幅远低于预期，仅为23.5万个，但工资也大幅上涨，暗示滞胀。后者足以推高长期国债收益率并使收益率曲线陡峭，尽管市场猜测美联储是否会比之前想象的晚开始缩减规模。</blockquote> “Expectations of a delay in Fed tapering as well as a new administration in Japan is supporting equity markets and we expect this to continue,” said&nbsp;Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “Buy-on-dip is as robust as ever, taking negative news such as U.S. nonfarm payrolls as good news which is typical of an advanced carry trade.”<blockquote>Nordea Investment Funds高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示：“对美联储推迟缩减规模以及日本新政府的预期正在支撑股市，我们预计这种情况将持续下去。”“逢低买入一如既往地强劲，将美国非农就业等负面消息视为好消息，这是高级套利交易的典型特征。”</blockquote> Investors “are now already betting on the Fed delaying tapering,” Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades, wrote in emailed comments.“Even if the prospect of sustained monetary support is helping to lift market sentiment, today’s session is likely to stay muted but technical,”especially given the holiday in the U.S. and lack of macro data releases, he said.<blockquote>ActivTrades技术分析师Pierre Veyret在电子邮件评论中写道，投资者“现在已经押注美联储推迟缩减规模”。“即使持续货币支持的前景有助于提振市场情绪，今天的交易可能会保持平静，但技术性较强，”他表示，特别是考虑到美国正值假期且缺乏宏观数据发布。</blockquote> “Employment decelerated sharply in August, with little indication of a pickup in labour supply,” said Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. “This puts the Fed in a quandary as it balances risks of a sharp demand slowdown against those of tight supply and inflation...We still expect the Fed to signal tapering in September, but now expect it to begin in December not November. QE will likely end by the middle of 2022.”<blockquote>巴克莱经济学家乔纳森·米勒表示：“8月份就业急剧减速，几乎没有迹象表明劳动力供应有所回升。”“这让美联储陷入了两难境地，因为它需要平衡需求急剧放缓的风险与供应紧张和通胀的风险……我们仍然预计美联储将在9月发出缩减购债的信号，但现在预计将在12月而不是11月开始。量化宽松可能会在2022年中期结束。”</blockquote> Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, boosted by a rally in Japan on prospects of better economic and pandemic policies under a new leader. Chinese shares also jumped. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose about 0.6% overnight to the highest since late July, while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8%, on track to close at a two-month high, as communication services and technology shares led the advance.&nbsp; Gains in Asia were led by Japan, where the equity benchmark rose to a 31-year high on wagers for new economic policies once Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga steps down.Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.8% to a five-month top, extending a rally on hopes a new prime minister there would bring added fiscal spending (and thus even more debt-monetizing QE).&nbsp; Hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing through fiscal and monetary policy lifted Chinese blue chips 1.9%.<blockquote>盘中早些时候，亚洲股市上涨，受日本因新领导人领导下更好的经济和疫情政策前景而上涨的提振。中国股市也大幅上涨。摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）除日本以外最广泛的亚太股市指数隔夜上涨约0.6%，至7月下旬以来的最高水平，而更广泛的摩根士丹利资本国际亚太指数上涨0.8%，有望收于两个月高点，通信服务和科技股领涨。亚洲股市涨幅由日本领涨，日本首相菅义伟（Yoshihide Suga）因押注新经济政策而升至31年高点。日本日经指数上涨1.8%，至五个月高点，因希望日本新首相将带来更多财政支出（从而带来更多债务货币化量化宽松）而延续涨势。北京通过财政和货币政策采取新刺激措施的希望提振中国蓝筹股上涨1.9%。</blockquote> Japan’s Nikkei 225 gauge was among top-performing benchmarks, while the Topix extended gains from a more than 30-year high after Japan’s prime minister’s exit was announced Friday. “As Suga’s rising unpopularity partly stems from a perceived inability on his part to manage the Covid-19 pandemic, the new leadership will have to address this issue,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. “This seems to bring high hopes of further economic stimulus to aid businesses and also bolstering of healthcare systems to tackle rising Covid-19 cases.”<blockquote>日本日经225指数是表现最好的基准之一，而东证指数在周五日本首相宣布退出后从30多年高点延续涨幅。IG Asia市场策略师Jun Rong Yeap在一份报告中写道：“菅义伟越来越不受欢迎，部分原因是人们认为他无力应对Covid-19大流行，因此新领导层必须解决这个问题。”“这似乎带来了进一步经济刺激以帮助企业以及加强医疗保健系统以应对不断增加的Covid-19病例的厚望。”</blockquote> Chinese stocks rose overall, with the Hang Seng Tech Index ending the day higher. Tencent shares were among the top contributors to the Asian benchmark’s rise as Citigroup said its to-be-launched League of Legends Mobile game could buoy sentiment about China’s gaming industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing also jumped as Goldman Sachs raised its price target on expectations of a price hike for wafers. Sentiment toward Asian stocks has improved since late August on optimism of gradual tapering by the Federal Reserve. Disappointing U.S. payroll growth data on Friday reinforced that view, as the economy added 235,000 jobs in August - the smallest increase in seven months.<blockquote>中国股市整体上涨，恒生科技指数收高。腾讯控股股价是亚洲基准指数上涨的最大贡献者之一，花旗集团表示，其即将推出的英雄联盟手机游戏可能会提振人们对中国游戏行业的情绪。由于高盛因预期晶圆价格上涨而上调目标价，台积电也大幅上涨。自8月底以来，由于对美联储逐步缩减规模的乐观情绪，对亚洲股市的情绪有所改善。周五令人失望的美国就业增长数据强化了这一观点，8月份美国经济增加了235,000个就业岗位，为七个月来的最小增幅。</blockquote> In rates, the rise in U.S. 10-year yields to 1.33% limited some of the pressure on the dollar from the poor payrolls print, though its index still touched a one-month low before steadying at 92.207. Cash Treasurys were closed on Monday. Fixed income was also quiet in Europe ahead of this week’s risk events. Bunds bear flatten a touch, gilts bull steepen; both settling off extremes of the morning’s trade. Italy leads a modest tightening in peripheral spreads. Long-end Spain lags after reports the sovereign intends to raise 5 billion euros from a debut green debt deal.<blockquote>利率方面，美国10年期国债收益率升至1.33%，限制了美元因就业数据不佳而承受的部分压力，但其指数仍触及一个月低点，随后稳定在92.207。现金国库周一休市。在本周的风险事件之前，欧洲的固定收益也很平静。德国国债熊市趋于平缓，英国国债牛市加剧；两者都解决了上午交易的极端情况。意大利引领外围利差适度收紧。有报道称，西班牙打算从首次绿色债务交易中筹集50亿欧元，长期表现落后。</blockquote> In FX, the dollar was changing hands versus the yen at 109.90, while the euro stood at $1.1868 after hitting a five-week top of $1.1908 on Friday. currencies traded in a tight range with a hint of USD outperformance. AUD, SEK and NZD are at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. Indonesia’s rupiah and the Thai baht led most emerging Asian currencies higher as gains in regional equities boosted risk appetite. The Taiwan dollar climbed, touching the strongest level since early June. Indonesia’s rupiah advances for a third day, aided by foreign fund inflows into the nation’s bonds and equities.<blockquote>外汇方面，美元兑日元汇率为109.90，而欧元兑日元汇率在周五触及1.1908美元的五周高点后，升至1.1868美元。货币在窄幅波动中交易，美元表现略好。澳元、瑞典克朗和新西兰元在G-10记分牌上垫底。由于地区股市上涨提振了风险偏好，印尼盾和泰铢领涨大多数亚洲新兴货币。台币攀升，触及6月初以来最强水平。在外国资金流入该国债券和股票的帮助下，印尼盾连续第三天上涨。</blockquote> The European Central Bank holds its policy meeting this weekand a number of policy hawks have been calling for a step back in the bank’s huge asset-buying programme, though President Christine Lagarde has sounded more dovish.Euro zone sovereign bond yields barely budged on Monday. In early trade, Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield was steady at -0.36%. “We expect the ECB to announce a reduced pace of Q4 PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme) at its September meeting on the back of easier financial conditions,” said analysts at TD Securities. “All other policy levers are likely to be left on hold, with inflation forecasts revised sharply up this year and next. Communication risks are high, and Lagarde will want to avoid sounding overly hawkish, instead emphasising ‘persistence’.”<blockquote>欧洲央行本周召开政策会议尽管行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)听起来更加鸽派，但一些政策鹰派人士一直呼吁退出央行庞大的资产购买计划。欧元区主权债券收益率周一几乎没有变动。早盘交易中，德国基准10年期国债收益率稳定在-0.36%。道明证券分析师表示：“我们预计，由于金融状况更加宽松，欧洲央行将在9月份的会议上宣布放慢第四季度PEPP（流行病紧急购买计划）的步伐。”“所有其他政策杠杆都可能被搁置，今明两年的通胀预测将大幅上调。沟通风险很高，拉加德将希望避免听起来过于鹰派，而是强调‘坚持’。”</blockquote> In commodities, oil slid after Saudi Arabia slashed prices of all crude grades to Asian customers, while leaving prices to northwestern Europe and the United States steady. While futures rebounded from Asia’s lows, WTI remains ~0.9% lower but recovers above $68.50; Brent returns back below $72 after a short-lived bounce.<blockquote>大宗商品方面，沙特阿拉伯大幅下调对亚洲客户的所有原油等级价格，而对西北欧和美国的价格保持稳定，油价下跌。虽然期货从亚洲低点反弹，但WTI仍下跌约0.9%，但回升至68.50美元上方；布伦特原油在短暂反弹后回到72美元以下。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc48cc5c9158bde53dfa6192ace2850\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The prospect of a later start to Fed tapering proved only fleetingly positive for non-yielding gold, which stood at $1,825 an ounce, having reached its highest since mid-June at $1,833.80. L<blockquote>事实证明，美联储稍后开始缩减规模的前景对无收益黄金来说只是短暂的利好，金价为每盎司1,825美元，此前曾触及6月中旬以来的最高水平1,833.80美元。L</blockquote> Aluminum hit the highest in over a decade on the LME as political unrest in Guinea fueled concerns over supply of the raw material needed to make the metal. A unit of the military&nbsp;seized power&nbsp;and suspended the constitution, raising the possibility of disruption to bauxite shipment from the key global supplier.LME lead and nickel lag peers, dropping over 1%.<blockquote>由于几内亚的政治动荡加剧了人们对制造金属所需原材料供应的担忧，伦敦金属交易所铝价触及十多年来的最高水平一支军队夺取了政权并中止了宪法，增加了全球主要供应商铝土矿运输中断的可能性。LME铅和镍落后于同行，跌幅超过1%。</blockquote> Bitcoin was up for a sixth day, trading around $51,700 apiece, while Ethereum continued to coil just under $4,000 waiting for the next major short squeeze that will take it to new record highs and $10,000 thereafter.<blockquote>比特币连续第六天上涨，每股交易价格约为51,700美元，而以太币继续盘整略低于4,000美元，等待下一次重大轧空，这将使其创下新的历史新高，此后达到10,000美元。</blockquote> There is nothing on the US calendar today due to Labor day. In Germany, we got the July factory orders (3.4% vs -1.0 Exp.), August construction PMI (49.5, Last 49.5) and UK August construction PMI (55.2, exp. 56.9).<blockquote>由于劳动节，今天美国日历上什么都没有。在德国，我们得到了7月工厂订单（3.4%vs-1.0 exp.）、8月建筑业PMI（49.5，上次49.5）和英国8月建筑业PMI（55.2，exp.56.9）。</blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap<blockquote>DB的Jim Reid结束了隔夜总结</blockquote> All of a sudden after 18 months at home I’m going to a DB conference this week and I’ll also be back in the office for a day. My wife is hosting a “he’s finally gone back to the office” party at home. Talking of parties we hosted a huge children’s party for the twins 4th birthday on Saturday. Given the lockdowns of the last year we wanted to do something special but boy was it stressful. Indeed I’m still recovering from having 70 screaming kids running loose and shouting in my ears. Good preparation for my first “live” team meeting back.<blockquote>突然间，在家里呆了18个月后，我本周要去参加一个数据库会议，我也会回到办公室一天。我妻子正在家里举办一个“他终于回到办公室了”的聚会。说到派对，周六我们为双胞胎的4岁生日举办了一场盛大的儿童派对。考虑到去年的封锁，我们想做一些特别的事情，但是压力很大。事实上，我仍在从70个尖叫的孩子在我耳边奔跑和大喊大叫中恢复过来。为我的第一次“现场”团队会议做了很好的准备。</blockquote> The champagne corks might be about to go off in the offices of the more hawkish European member states’ central banks this week as an important ECB meeting (Thursday) will be the main highlight. They could use it to announce the start of the end of the PEPP (more later). Before that though, today is a US holiday (Labor Day) with tomorrow and Wednesday Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year). So the week will likely get off to a slow start.<blockquote>本周，更鹰派的欧洲成员国央行办公室可能会开香槟，因为欧洲央行的一次重要会议（周四）将是主要亮点。他们可以用它来宣布PEPP结束的开始（稍后会有更多）。不过在此之前，今天是美国的节日（劳动节），明天和周三是犹太新年。因此，本周可能会有一个缓慢的开始。</blockquote> Elsewhere we’ll get monetary policy decisions from Australia (tomorrow), Canada (Wednesday), and Russia (Friday), and prior reports from Bloomberg have suggested that President Biden could decide who the next Fed Chair is from around this week. In terms of other data, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the German ZEW (tomorrow), US JOLTS (Wednesday), China CPI/PPI (Thursday) and US PPI (Friday).<blockquote>在其他地方，我们将从澳大利亚（明天）、加拿大（周三）和俄罗斯（周五）获得货币政策决定，彭博社之前的报道表明，拜登总统可能会在本周左右决定谁是下一任美联储主席。其他数据方面，值得关注的是德国ZEW（明天）、美国JOLTS（周三）、中国CPI/PPI（周四）和美国PPI（周五）。</blockquote> The ECB meeting on Thursday is likely the most important event though. At this meeting, the Governing Council are due to conduct a joint assessment of financing conditions and the outlook for inflation, which will be the basis for a recalibration of the pace of PEPP net purchases. The big question for investors will be whether the ECB slows down these purchases, and recent comments by Chief Economist Lane implied that the hurdle to decelerating purchases might be lower than the market had assumed, as he played down the broader significance of a deceleration. Furthermore, we’ve also had the flash CPI estimate that’s showed inflation was running at +3.0% in August, the highest level in nearly a decade. In their preview (link here), our European economists are of the view that an announcement of slower purchases is slightly more likely at this meeting than in December. So it could be a taper week.<blockquote>不过，周四的欧洲央行会议可能是最重要的事件。在这次会议上，管理委员会将对融资条件和通胀前景进行联合评估，这将成为重新调整PEPP净购买步伐的基础。投资者面临的一个大问题将是欧洲央行是否会放缓这些购买，首席经济学家莱恩最近的评论暗示，放缓购买的障碍可能低于市场预期，因为他淡化了减速的更广泛意义。此外，我们还获得了CPI初步估计，显示8月份通胀率为+3.0%，为近十年来的最高水平。在他们的预测中（点击此处），我们的欧洲经济学家认为，与12月份相比，本次会议宣布放缓购买的可能性略大。所以这可能是一个缩减周。</blockquote> Elsewhere it’ll be interesting to see what the Fed speakers make of Friday’s payrolls report. NY President Williams' (dove) has a speech on the economic outlook on Wednesday. Dallas' Kaplan (hawk / non-voter) talks on Wednesday and he has been a proponent of a September taper so will he wobble? Elsewhere Cleveland's Mester (hawk / non-voter) also talks on Friday.<blockquote>在其他地方，看看美联储发言人如何看待周五的就业报告将会很有趣。纽约州总统威廉姆斯（dove）周三将就经济前景发表讲话。达拉斯的卡普兰（鹰派/非选民）周三发表讲话，他一直是9月份缩减规模的支持者，所以他会动摇吗？在其他地方，克利夫兰的梅斯特（鹰派/非选民）也将于周五发表讲话。</blockquote> Friday's jobs report had something for everyone. Weak payrolls but signs of supply constraints in the details. The headline (235k vs. 1053k last month including revisions) and private (243k vs. 798k) payrolls were below the consensus of 733k and 610k, respectively. It seems the Fed are disproportionately focused on this headline number but there was strength elsewhere. Both the headline U-3 (5.2% vs. 5.4%) and U-6 (8.8% vs. 9.2%) rates improved amidst a 509k gain in employment and 318k decline in unemployment. In addition, the prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio improved a couple of tenths to 78% and prime-age participation held steady at 81.8%. Average earnings were at +4.3% against +3.9% expected. Perhaps this explains why 10 year yields ended the day around +4bps higher even with the substantial payrolls miss. It may also tell us a bit more about the positioning of the market now. We had many days of strong data in the early summer while rates rallied hard. The technicals back then were phenomenal and the market short. The technicals are now far less strong.<blockquote>周五的就业报告对每个人都有好处。就业人数疲弱，但细节显示供应受限。整体（23.5万对上个月的105.3万，包括修正）和私人（24.3万对79.8万）就业人数分别低于市场普遍预期的73.3万和61万。美联储似乎过分关注这一总体数字，但其他地方也有实力。总体U-3（5.2%对5.4%）和U-6（8.8%对9.2%）的比率都有所改善，就业人数增加了50.9万，失业率下降了31.8万。此外，黄金年龄（25-54岁）的就业与人口比率提高了十分之几，达到78%，黄金年龄的参与率稳定在81.8%。平均盈利为+4.3%，而预期为+3.9%。也许这解释了为什么即使就业人数大幅下降，10年期国债收益率当天收盘仍上涨约+4个基点。它也可能告诉我们更多关于现在市场的定位。初夏，当利率大幅上涨时，我们有许多天的强劲数据。当时的技术面非常出色，市场空头。技术面现在远没有那么强劲。</blockquote> We’ll get an early chance to see an alternative view of the labour market with Wednesday's JOLTS report even if it refers to July. This report has shown great tightness in labour markets of late with quits rates around record highs and vacancy yields at records low. Elsewhere on employment, Thursday's jobless claims will be interesting with Federal UI benefits ending this week for all states. As such we could see a bigger decline in initial claims, though such a fall may wait for another week. As of mid-August, there were still 9.2mn people collecting either PUA or PEUC, most of whom will lose all income support in the coming weeks. While this may provide some relief with respect to the labor shortage it could also leave some light on income which may impact consumption.<blockquote>我们将有机会通过周三的JOLTS报告尽早看到对劳动力市场的另一种看法，即使它指的是7月份。这份报告显示，最近劳动力市场非常紧张，辞职率接近历史高位，空缺率处于历史低位。在就业方面，周四的失业救济申请将会很有趣，所有州的联邦失业救济金将于本周结束。因此，我们可能会看到首次申请失业救济人数出现更大下降，尽管这种下降可能还要再等一周。截至8月中旬，仍有920万人领取PUA或PEUC，其中大多数人将在未来几周内失去所有收入支持。虽然这可能会在一定程度上缓解劳动力短缺，但也可能会影响消费的收入。</blockquote> Back to central banks the most interesting outside of the ECB will be the RBA tomorrow where our economist (link here) is expecting that they will reverse their taper decision, and announce that they’ll continue to purchase government bonds at the current average pace of A$5bn per week, rather than tapering to A$4bn per week.<blockquote>回到央行，欧洲央行之外最有趣的将是明天的澳大利亚央行，我们的经济学家（链接此处）预计他们将改变缩减购债决定，并宣布将继续以目前每周50亿澳元的平均速度购买政府债券，而不是每周缩减至40亿澳元。</blockquote> Asian markets have started the week on the front foot with the Nikkei (+1.80%), Hang Seng (+0.51%), Shanghai Comp (+1.02%) and India’s Nifty (+0.47%) all gaining ground. The Kospi (-0.04%) is flattish. US and Euro Futures are pretty flat. Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices are down -1.12% after Saudi Arabia slashed crude prices for Asian buyers, raising the prospect of competition between OPEC+ producers to gain/maintain market share.<blockquote>亚洲市场本周开局领先，日经指数（+1.80%）、恒生指数（+0.51%）、上证指数（+1.02%）和印度Nifty指数（+0.47%）均上涨。综合股价指数(-0.04%)持平。美国和欧元期货相当持平。在其他地方，布伦特原油价格下跌-1.12%，此前沙特阿拉伯大幅下调了亚洲买家的原油价格，提高了欧佩克+产油国之间争夺/维持市场份额的前景。</blockquote> Turning to the latest on the pandemic, Italy’s Public Administration Minister Renato Brunetta said that the country will decide by the end of September whether vaccines will become mandatory for all people aged 12 and over. The law will be passed if the country hasn’t reached a vaccination level between 80% and 90%. Here in the UK, the government will decide by the end of September on whether to make it mandatory to provide vaccine certification for entry to large venues where infection risk may be higher. The UK Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi further said that the government hasn’t yet decided on whether to roll out vaccines to healthy 12- to 15-year-olds, but if the move does go ahead, then parental consent would be needed.<blockquote>谈到疫情的最新情况，意大利公共行政部长雷纳托·布鲁内塔(Renato Brunetta)表示，该国将在9月底前决定是否对所有12岁及以上的人强制接种疫苗。如果该国没有达到80%至90%的疫苗接种率，该法律将获得通过。在英国，政府将在9月底前决定是否强制要求进入感染风险可能较高的大型场所提供疫苗认证。英国疫苗部长纳齐姆·扎哈维进一步表示，政府尚未决定是否向健康的12至15岁儿童推出疫苗，但如果此举确实继续进行，那么将需要父母的同意。</blockquote> Recapping last week now and global markets saw some divergence as ECB members grew more hawkish and Fed officials stuck to their more dovish tones, with economic data partially reinforcing both views. US equities finished the week just off their highs with the S&amp;P 500 just worse than unchanged (-0.03%) on Friday but finishing up +0.58% over the course of the week. There was a shift to defensives and growth stocks with the NASDAQ gaining +1.55% last week (+0.21% Friday) while cyclicals, such as US banks (-3.69%), were on the back foot. European equities, which are more cyclically focused, underperformed as the STOXX 600 ended the week marginally (-0.09%) lower after Friday’s -0.56% loss.<blockquote>回顾上周，随着欧洲央行成员变得更加鹰派，而美联储官员坚持更加鸽派的基调，全球市场出现了一些分歧，经济数据部分强化了这两种观点。美国股市本周收盘略低于高点，周五标普500略逊于持平（-0.03%），但本周收盘上涨+0.58%。市场转向防御性股票和成长型股票，纳斯达克上周上涨1.55%（周五上涨0.21%），而美国银行等周期性股票（-3.69%）则处于不利地位。更关注周期性的欧洲股市表现不佳，斯托克600指数继周五下跌-0.56%后，本周小幅下跌(-0.09%)。</blockquote> The divergent central bank tones was most apparent in sovereign debt performance. US 10yr Treasury yields ended the week up +1.5bps, most of that coming on Friday’s +3.9bp gain despite a weaker-than-expected employment report as markets looked at other aspects of the report and ahead to the upcoming supply outlook after the holiday weekend. On the other hand, hawkish comment ahead of the ECB meeting saw bond yields in Europe move higher across much of the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) reaching their highest level in over 6 weeks. Peripheral bonds in southern Europe sold off similarly, with 10yr Italian (+7.4bps), Spanish (+4.2bps), Portuguese (+5.0bps), and Greek (+8.9bps) yields all climbing.<blockquote>央行的不同语气在主权债务表现中最为明显。美国10年期国债收益率本周收盘上涨+1.5个基点，其中大部分来自周五的+3.9个基点，尽管就业报告弱于预期，因为市场关注报告的其他方面以及假期后即将到来的供应前景周末。另一方面，欧洲央行会议前的鹰派言论导致欧洲大部分地区的债券收益率走高，10年期国债收益率（+6.2个基点）达到6周多来的最高水平。南欧外围债券也遭到类似抛售，10年期意大利债券（+7.4个基点）、西班牙债券（+4.2个基点）、葡萄牙债券（+5.0个基点）和希腊债券（+8.9个基点）收益率均攀升。</blockquote> Outside of the employment report on Friday, global composite PMIs for August slowed from the previous reading, but remained in strong expansionary territory in Europe and the US. The final Euro area composite PMI was down 0.5pts from the initial reading at 59.0, while Germany’s figure fell 0.6pts to 60.0. Meanwhile the US saw the composite PMI stay at 55.4, which is the lowest reading in eight months as the pace of growth seems to have definitively peaked back in May. The US ISM services PMI fell 2.4pts to 61.7 last month while the commentary continues to highlight supply chain disturbances and labour shortages. Finally, Euro Area retail sales for July showed a -2.3% slowdown (0.0% expected), after the previous month was revised up 0.3pp to 1.8%. The drop is reflective of the surge in cases at that time due to the delta variant.<blockquote>除了周五的就业报告之外，8月份全球综合采购经理人指数较前值有所放缓，但欧洲和美国仍处于强劲扩张区间。欧元区综合PMI终值较初值59.0下降0.5个百分点，德国下降0.6个百分点至60.0。与此同时，美国综合PMI保持在55.4，这是八个月来的最低读数，因为增长速度似乎已经在5月份明确见顶。美国ISM服务业PMI上个月下降2.4点至61.7，而评论继续强调供应链中断和劳动力短缺。最后，欧元区7月份零售额放缓-2.3%（预期为0.0%），此前一个月上调0.3个百分点至1.8%。这一下降反映了当时由于德尔塔变异毒株导致病例激增。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Futures Rise, Europe And China Bounce With US Closed For Holiday<blockquote>美国假期休市，期货上涨，欧洲和中国反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFutures Rise, Europe And China Bounce With US Closed For Holiday<blockquote>美国假期休市，期货上涨，欧洲和中国反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-06 20:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt may be a holiday in the US, but US equity futures are once again levitating and on the verge of new all time highs, while global shares posted their longest winning streak in three months on Monday, aided by fading odds of an imminent taper coupled with talk of more stimulus in Japan and China, while oil slid as the Saudis cut prices for Asian customers by more than twice the expected amount in a sign the world’s largest crude exporter wants to entice buyers to take more of its barrels.<blockquote>这可能是美国的假期，但美国股指期货再次悬浮，并处于历史新高的边缘，而全球股市周一创下三个月来最长的连涨势头，这得益于即将缩减购债规模的可能性减弱，加上日本和中国谈论更多刺激措施，而油价下跌，因为沙特将亚洲客户的价格下调了预期的两倍多，这表明全球最大的原油出口国希望吸引买家购买更多石油。</blockquote> The labor day holiday in the US means trading conditions will be extremely thin, which helped MSCI’s all-country world index gain 0.2%, touching a new record level and on course for its seventh consecutive closing high. Meanwhile in the US, S&amp;P futs rose 0.2% to 4,544 while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7daf99f5478922a369f5869041a610b8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"799\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote>美国劳动节假期意味着交易条件将极其清淡，这帮助MSCI所有国家的世界指数上涨0.2%，t创下历史新高并有望连续第七次收盘新高与此同时，在美国，标准普尔期货上涨0.2%，至4,544点，而纳斯达克期货小幅上涨0.3%。</blockquote> In Europe the STOXX index of 600 European companies was 0.7% higher, inching closer to August record peaks, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 0.9%. Other majors added ~0.6% with tech, household &amp; personal goods and insurance doing much of the heavy lifting. Real estate is the only sector in the red. S&amp;P futures follow Europe, rising 0.2%. Luxury firms LVMH, Kering and Hermes led gains on France’s CAC 40 Index, with Bryan Garnier noting that China’s “common prosperity” goal won’t hurt all luxury companies the same way while helping expand the country’s middle class -- a positive overall for the sector; LVMH shares were up 2% as of 12:20pm in Paris while Kering, the owner of Gucci, gains 1.6%; Hermes gained 1.8%. LVMH shares had shed 7% in August, as investors jumped out of the expensive luxury sector amid worries about the new policy in China, a crucial growth engine for the industry. “Common prosperity” policy “does not mean ‘killing’ rich people,” Bryan Garnier analyst Loic Morvan writes in a note. Elsewhere, here are some of the biggest European movers today:<blockquote>在欧洲，600家欧洲公司的斯托克指数上涨0.7%，小幅接近8月份的历史峰值，而欧洲斯托克50指数上涨0.9%。其他专业增长了约0.6%，其中科技、家庭和个人用品以及保险承担了大部分重任。房地产是唯一亏损的板块。标普期货跟随欧洲上涨0.2%。奢侈品公司路威酩轩集团(LVMH)、开云集团(Kering)和爱马仕(Hermes)领涨法国CAC 40指数，布莱恩·卡尼尔(Bryan Garnier)指出，中国的“共同繁荣”目标不会以同样的方式伤害所有奢侈品公司，同时有助于扩大该国的中产阶级——这对该行业来说总体上是积极的；截至巴黎中午12:20，LVMH股价上涨2%，Gucci母公司开云集团(Kering)上涨1.6%；爱马仕上涨1.8%。LVMH股价在8月份下跌了7%，原因是投资者担心中国的新政策而退出了昂贵的奢侈品行业，而中国是该行业的重要增长引擎。Bryan Garnier分析师Loic Morvan在一份报告中写道，“共同繁荣”政策“并不意味着‘杀死’富人”。在其他地方，以下是当今欧洲一些最大的推动者：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Norsk Hydro shares jump as much as 5% to the highest level since July 2008 after the aluminum price climbed because of political unrest in Guinea.</li> <li>Scor shares gain as much as 3.4% after JPMorgan raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight from neutral.</li> <li>Leonardo shares rise as much as 2.3% after the group’s CEO said on Friday that the company plans to proceed with the IPO of its U.S. unit DRS “as soon as conditions allow.”</li> <li>Dechra Pharmaceuticals shares fall as much as 9.5% after the company posted results that met estimates. Stifel cuts its rating to hold, noting little upside in the stock.</li> <li>EQT AB shares drop as much as 6.4%, seeing $2 billion wiped off the company’s market value after analysts at Nordea Bank cut their recommendation on the stock to sell.</li> <li>Spie shares lose as much as 4.7% after the company said it’s submitting an offer to buy Engie’s Equans unit and plans to use a combination of debt and equity to fund the transaction.</li> </ul> Investors were also still assessing the fallout from the September payrolls report, which showed a much smaller increase in jobs than expected, at just 235,000, but also a sharp pickup in wages, hinting at stagflation. The latter was enough to nudge longer-dated Treasury yields higher and steepen the yield curve, even as markets speculated over whether the Federal Reserve might not start tapering until later than previously thought.<blockquote><ul><li>由于几内亚政治动荡，铝价攀升，Norsk Hydro股价上涨5%，至2008年7月以来的最高水平。</li><li>摩根大通将Scor股票评级从中性上调至跑赢大盘后，Scor股价上涨3.4%。</li><li>莱昂纳多首席执行官周五表示，该公司计划“在条件允许的情况下”尽快推进其美国子公司DRS的IPO，该公司股价上涨2.3%。</li><li>Dechra Pharmaceuticals公布符合预期的业绩后，该公司股价下跌9.5%。Stifel将其评级下调至持有，认为该股上涨空间不大。</li><li>在北欧联合银行(Nordea Bank)分析师下调该股卖出建议后，EQT AB股价下跌6.4%，公司市值蒸发20亿美元。</li><li>Spie表示将提交收购Engie旗下Equans部门的要约，并计划使用债务和股权相结合的方式为交易提供资金，该公司股价下跌4.7%。</li></ul>投资者还在评估9月份就业报告的影响，该报告显示就业岗位增幅远低于预期，仅为23.5万个，但工资也大幅上涨，暗示滞胀。后者足以推高长期国债收益率并使收益率曲线陡峭，尽管市场猜测美联储是否会比之前想象的晚开始缩减规模。</blockquote> “Expectations of a delay in Fed tapering as well as a new administration in Japan is supporting equity markets and we expect this to continue,” said&nbsp;Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “Buy-on-dip is as robust as ever, taking negative news such as U.S. nonfarm payrolls as good news which is typical of an advanced carry trade.”<blockquote>Nordea Investment Funds高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示：“对美联储推迟缩减规模以及日本新政府的预期正在支撑股市，我们预计这种情况将持续下去。”“逢低买入一如既往地强劲，将美国非农就业等负面消息视为好消息，这是高级套利交易的典型特征。”</blockquote> Investors “are now already betting on the Fed delaying tapering,” Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades, wrote in emailed comments.“Even if the prospect of sustained monetary support is helping to lift market sentiment, today’s session is likely to stay muted but technical,”especially given the holiday in the U.S. and lack of macro data releases, he said.<blockquote>ActivTrades技术分析师Pierre Veyret在电子邮件评论中写道，投资者“现在已经押注美联储推迟缩减规模”。“即使持续货币支持的前景有助于提振市场情绪，今天的交易可能会保持平静，但技术性较强，”他表示，特别是考虑到美国正值假期且缺乏宏观数据发布。</blockquote> “Employment decelerated sharply in August, with little indication of a pickup in labour supply,” said Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. “This puts the Fed in a quandary as it balances risks of a sharp demand slowdown against those of tight supply and inflation...We still expect the Fed to signal tapering in September, but now expect it to begin in December not November. QE will likely end by the middle of 2022.”<blockquote>巴克莱经济学家乔纳森·米勒表示：“8月份就业急剧减速，几乎没有迹象表明劳动力供应有所回升。”“这让美联储陷入了两难境地，因为它需要平衡需求急剧放缓的风险与供应紧张和通胀的风险……我们仍然预计美联储将在9月发出缩减购债的信号，但现在预计将在12月而不是11月开始。量化宽松可能会在2022年中期结束。”</blockquote> Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, boosted by a rally in Japan on prospects of better economic and pandemic policies under a new leader. Chinese shares also jumped. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose about 0.6% overnight to the highest since late July, while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8%, on track to close at a two-month high, as communication services and technology shares led the advance.&nbsp; Gains in Asia were led by Japan, where the equity benchmark rose to a 31-year high on wagers for new economic policies once Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga steps down.Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.8% to a five-month top, extending a rally on hopes a new prime minister there would bring added fiscal spending (and thus even more debt-monetizing QE).&nbsp; Hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing through fiscal and monetary policy lifted Chinese blue chips 1.9%.<blockquote>盘中早些时候，亚洲股市上涨，受日本因新领导人领导下更好的经济和疫情政策前景而上涨的提振。中国股市也大幅上涨。摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）除日本以外最广泛的亚太股市指数隔夜上涨约0.6%，至7月下旬以来的最高水平，而更广泛的摩根士丹利资本国际亚太指数上涨0.8%，有望收于两个月高点，通信服务和科技股领涨。亚洲股市涨幅由日本领涨，日本首相菅义伟（Yoshihide Suga）因押注新经济政策而升至31年高点。日本日经指数上涨1.8%，至五个月高点，因希望日本新首相将带来更多财政支出（从而带来更多债务货币化量化宽松）而延续涨势。北京通过财政和货币政策采取新刺激措施的希望提振中国蓝筹股上涨1.9%。</blockquote> Japan’s Nikkei 225 gauge was among top-performing benchmarks, while the Topix extended gains from a more than 30-year high after Japan’s prime minister’s exit was announced Friday. “As Suga’s rising unpopularity partly stems from a perceived inability on his part to manage the Covid-19 pandemic, the new leadership will have to address this issue,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. “This seems to bring high hopes of further economic stimulus to aid businesses and also bolstering of healthcare systems to tackle rising Covid-19 cases.”<blockquote>日本日经225指数是表现最好的基准之一，而东证指数在周五日本首相宣布退出后从30多年高点延续涨幅。IG Asia市场策略师Jun Rong Yeap在一份报告中写道：“菅义伟越来越不受欢迎，部分原因是人们认为他无力应对Covid-19大流行，因此新领导层必须解决这个问题。”“这似乎带来了进一步经济刺激以帮助企业以及加强医疗保健系统以应对不断增加的Covid-19病例的厚望。”</blockquote> Chinese stocks rose overall, with the Hang Seng Tech Index ending the day higher. Tencent shares were among the top contributors to the Asian benchmark’s rise as Citigroup said its to-be-launched League of Legends Mobile game could buoy sentiment about China’s gaming industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing also jumped as Goldman Sachs raised its price target on expectations of a price hike for wafers. Sentiment toward Asian stocks has improved since late August on optimism of gradual tapering by the Federal Reserve. Disappointing U.S. payroll growth data on Friday reinforced that view, as the economy added 235,000 jobs in August - the smallest increase in seven months.<blockquote>中国股市整体上涨，恒生科技指数收高。腾讯控股股价是亚洲基准指数上涨的最大贡献者之一，花旗集团表示，其即将推出的英雄联盟手机游戏可能会提振人们对中国游戏行业的情绪。由于高盛因预期晶圆价格上涨而上调目标价，台积电也大幅上涨。自8月底以来，由于对美联储逐步缩减规模的乐观情绪，对亚洲股市的情绪有所改善。周五令人失望的美国就业增长数据强化了这一观点，8月份美国经济增加了235,000个就业岗位，为七个月来的最小增幅。</blockquote> In rates, the rise in U.S. 10-year yields to 1.33% limited some of the pressure on the dollar from the poor payrolls print, though its index still touched a one-month low before steadying at 92.207. Cash Treasurys were closed on Monday. Fixed income was also quiet in Europe ahead of this week’s risk events. Bunds bear flatten a touch, gilts bull steepen; both settling off extremes of the morning’s trade. Italy leads a modest tightening in peripheral spreads. Long-end Spain lags after reports the sovereign intends to raise 5 billion euros from a debut green debt deal.<blockquote>利率方面，美国10年期国债收益率升至1.33%，限制了美元因就业数据不佳而承受的部分压力，但其指数仍触及一个月低点，随后稳定在92.207。现金国库周一休市。在本周的风险事件之前，欧洲的固定收益也很平静。德国国债熊市趋于平缓，英国国债牛市加剧；两者都解决了上午交易的极端情况。意大利引领外围利差适度收紧。有报道称，西班牙打算从首次绿色债务交易中筹集50亿欧元，长期表现落后。</blockquote> In FX, the dollar was changing hands versus the yen at 109.90, while the euro stood at $1.1868 after hitting a five-week top of $1.1908 on Friday. currencies traded in a tight range with a hint of USD outperformance. AUD, SEK and NZD are at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. Indonesia’s rupiah and the Thai baht led most emerging Asian currencies higher as gains in regional equities boosted risk appetite. The Taiwan dollar climbed, touching the strongest level since early June. Indonesia’s rupiah advances for a third day, aided by foreign fund inflows into the nation’s bonds and equities.<blockquote>外汇方面，美元兑日元汇率为109.90，而欧元兑日元汇率在周五触及1.1908美元的五周高点后，升至1.1868美元。货币在窄幅波动中交易，美元表现略好。澳元、瑞典克朗和新西兰元在G-10记分牌上垫底。由于地区股市上涨提振了风险偏好，印尼盾和泰铢领涨大多数亚洲新兴货币。台币攀升，触及6月初以来最强水平。在外国资金流入该国债券和股票的帮助下，印尼盾连续第三天上涨。</blockquote> The European Central Bank holds its policy meeting this weekand a number of policy hawks have been calling for a step back in the bank’s huge asset-buying programme, though President Christine Lagarde has sounded more dovish.Euro zone sovereign bond yields barely budged on Monday. In early trade, Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield was steady at -0.36%. “We expect the ECB to announce a reduced pace of Q4 PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme) at its September meeting on the back of easier financial conditions,” said analysts at TD Securities. “All other policy levers are likely to be left on hold, with inflation forecasts revised sharply up this year and next. Communication risks are high, and Lagarde will want to avoid sounding overly hawkish, instead emphasising ‘persistence’.”<blockquote>欧洲央行本周召开政策会议尽管行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)听起来更加鸽派，但一些政策鹰派人士一直呼吁退出央行庞大的资产购买计划。欧元区主权债券收益率周一几乎没有变动。早盘交易中，德国基准10年期国债收益率稳定在-0.36%。道明证券分析师表示：“我们预计，由于金融状况更加宽松，欧洲央行将在9月份的会议上宣布放慢第四季度PEPP（流行病紧急购买计划）的步伐。”“所有其他政策杠杆都可能被搁置，今明两年的通胀预测将大幅上调。沟通风险很高，拉加德将希望避免听起来过于鹰派，而是强调‘坚持’。”</blockquote> In commodities, oil slid after Saudi Arabia slashed prices of all crude grades to Asian customers, while leaving prices to northwestern Europe and the United States steady. While futures rebounded from Asia’s lows, WTI remains ~0.9% lower but recovers above $68.50; Brent returns back below $72 after a short-lived bounce.<blockquote>大宗商品方面，沙特阿拉伯大幅下调对亚洲客户的所有原油等级价格，而对西北欧和美国的价格保持稳定，油价下跌。虽然期货从亚洲低点反弹，但WTI仍下跌约0.9%，但回升至68.50美元上方；布伦特原油在短暂反弹后回到72美元以下。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc48cc5c9158bde53dfa6192ace2850\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The prospect of a later start to Fed tapering proved only fleetingly positive for non-yielding gold, which stood at $1,825 an ounce, having reached its highest since mid-June at $1,833.80. L<blockquote>事实证明，美联储稍后开始缩减规模的前景对无收益黄金来说只是短暂的利好，金价为每盎司1,825美元，此前曾触及6月中旬以来的最高水平1,833.80美元。L</blockquote> Aluminum hit the highest in over a decade on the LME as political unrest in Guinea fueled concerns over supply of the raw material needed to make the metal. A unit of the military&nbsp;seized power&nbsp;and suspended the constitution, raising the possibility of disruption to bauxite shipment from the key global supplier.LME lead and nickel lag peers, dropping over 1%.<blockquote>由于几内亚的政治动荡加剧了人们对制造金属所需原材料供应的担忧，伦敦金属交易所铝价触及十多年来的最高水平一支军队夺取了政权并中止了宪法，增加了全球主要供应商铝土矿运输中断的可能性。LME铅和镍落后于同行，跌幅超过1%。</blockquote> Bitcoin was up for a sixth day, trading around $51,700 apiece, while Ethereum continued to coil just under $4,000 waiting for the next major short squeeze that will take it to new record highs and $10,000 thereafter.<blockquote>比特币连续第六天上涨，每股交易价格约为51,700美元，而以太币继续盘整略低于4,000美元，等待下一次重大轧空，这将使其创下新的历史新高，此后达到10,000美元。</blockquote> There is nothing on the US calendar today due to Labor day. In Germany, we got the July factory orders (3.4% vs -1.0 Exp.), August construction PMI (49.5, Last 49.5) and UK August construction PMI (55.2, exp. 56.9).<blockquote>由于劳动节，今天美国日历上什么都没有。在德国，我们得到了7月工厂订单（3.4%vs-1.0 exp.）、8月建筑业PMI（49.5，上次49.5）和英国8月建筑业PMI（55.2，exp.56.9）。</blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap<blockquote>DB的Jim Reid结束了隔夜总结</blockquote> All of a sudden after 18 months at home I’m going to a DB conference this week and I’ll also be back in the office for a day. My wife is hosting a “he’s finally gone back to the office” party at home. Talking of parties we hosted a huge children’s party for the twins 4th birthday on Saturday. Given the lockdowns of the last year we wanted to do something special but boy was it stressful. Indeed I’m still recovering from having 70 screaming kids running loose and shouting in my ears. Good preparation for my first “live” team meeting back.<blockquote>突然间，在家里呆了18个月后，我本周要去参加一个数据库会议，我也会回到办公室一天。我妻子正在家里举办一个“他终于回到办公室了”的聚会。说到派对，周六我们为双胞胎的4岁生日举办了一场盛大的儿童派对。考虑到去年的封锁，我们想做一些特别的事情，但是压力很大。事实上，我仍在从70个尖叫的孩子在我耳边奔跑和大喊大叫中恢复过来。为我的第一次“现场”团队会议做了很好的准备。</blockquote> The champagne corks might be about to go off in the offices of the more hawkish European member states’ central banks this week as an important ECB meeting (Thursday) will be the main highlight. They could use it to announce the start of the end of the PEPP (more later). Before that though, today is a US holiday (Labor Day) with tomorrow and Wednesday Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year). So the week will likely get off to a slow start.<blockquote>本周，更鹰派的欧洲成员国央行办公室可能会开香槟，因为欧洲央行的一次重要会议（周四）将是主要亮点。他们可以用它来宣布PEPP结束的开始（稍后会有更多）。不过在此之前，今天是美国的节日（劳动节），明天和周三是犹太新年。因此，本周可能会有一个缓慢的开始。</blockquote> Elsewhere we’ll get monetary policy decisions from Australia (tomorrow), Canada (Wednesday), and Russia (Friday), and prior reports from Bloomberg have suggested that President Biden could decide who the next Fed Chair is from around this week. In terms of other data, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the German ZEW (tomorrow), US JOLTS (Wednesday), China CPI/PPI (Thursday) and US PPI (Friday).<blockquote>在其他地方，我们将从澳大利亚（明天）、加拿大（周三）和俄罗斯（周五）获得货币政策决定，彭博社之前的报道表明，拜登总统可能会在本周左右决定谁是下一任美联储主席。其他数据方面，值得关注的是德国ZEW（明天）、美国JOLTS（周三）、中国CPI/PPI（周四）和美国PPI（周五）。</blockquote> The ECB meeting on Thursday is likely the most important event though. At this meeting, the Governing Council are due to conduct a joint assessment of financing conditions and the outlook for inflation, which will be the basis for a recalibration of the pace of PEPP net purchases. The big question for investors will be whether the ECB slows down these purchases, and recent comments by Chief Economist Lane implied that the hurdle to decelerating purchases might be lower than the market had assumed, as he played down the broader significance of a deceleration. Furthermore, we’ve also had the flash CPI estimate that’s showed inflation was running at +3.0% in August, the highest level in nearly a decade. In their preview (link here), our European economists are of the view that an announcement of slower purchases is slightly more likely at this meeting than in December. So it could be a taper week.<blockquote>不过，周四的欧洲央行会议可能是最重要的事件。在这次会议上，管理委员会将对融资条件和通胀前景进行联合评估，这将成为重新调整PEPP净购买步伐的基础。投资者面临的一个大问题将是欧洲央行是否会放缓这些购买，首席经济学家莱恩最近的评论暗示，放缓购买的障碍可能低于市场预期，因为他淡化了减速的更广泛意义。此外，我们还获得了CPI初步估计，显示8月份通胀率为+3.0%，为近十年来的最高水平。在他们的预测中（点击此处），我们的欧洲经济学家认为，与12月份相比，本次会议宣布放缓购买的可能性略大。所以这可能是一个缩减周。</blockquote> Elsewhere it’ll be interesting to see what the Fed speakers make of Friday’s payrolls report. NY President Williams' (dove) has a speech on the economic outlook on Wednesday. Dallas' Kaplan (hawk / non-voter) talks on Wednesday and he has been a proponent of a September taper so will he wobble? Elsewhere Cleveland's Mester (hawk / non-voter) also talks on Friday.<blockquote>在其他地方，看看美联储发言人如何看待周五的就业报告将会很有趣。纽约州总统威廉姆斯（dove）周三将就经济前景发表讲话。达拉斯的卡普兰（鹰派/非选民）周三发表讲话，他一直是9月份缩减规模的支持者，所以他会动摇吗？在其他地方，克利夫兰的梅斯特（鹰派/非选民）也将于周五发表讲话。</blockquote> Friday's jobs report had something for everyone. Weak payrolls but signs of supply constraints in the details. The headline (235k vs. 1053k last month including revisions) and private (243k vs. 798k) payrolls were below the consensus of 733k and 610k, respectively. It seems the Fed are disproportionately focused on this headline number but there was strength elsewhere. Both the headline U-3 (5.2% vs. 5.4%) and U-6 (8.8% vs. 9.2%) rates improved amidst a 509k gain in employment and 318k decline in unemployment. In addition, the prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio improved a couple of tenths to 78% and prime-age participation held steady at 81.8%. Average earnings were at +4.3% against +3.9% expected. Perhaps this explains why 10 year yields ended the day around +4bps higher even with the substantial payrolls miss. It may also tell us a bit more about the positioning of the market now. We had many days of strong data in the early summer while rates rallied hard. The technicals back then were phenomenal and the market short. The technicals are now far less strong.<blockquote>周五的就业报告对每个人都有好处。就业人数疲弱，但细节显示供应受限。整体（23.5万对上个月的105.3万，包括修正）和私人（24.3万对79.8万）就业人数分别低于市场普遍预期的73.3万和61万。美联储似乎过分关注这一总体数字，但其他地方也有实力。总体U-3（5.2%对5.4%）和U-6（8.8%对9.2%）的比率都有所改善，就业人数增加了50.9万，失业率下降了31.8万。此外，黄金年龄（25-54岁）的就业与人口比率提高了十分之几，达到78%，黄金年龄的参与率稳定在81.8%。平均盈利为+4.3%，而预期为+3.9%。也许这解释了为什么即使就业人数大幅下降，10年期国债收益率当天收盘仍上涨约+4个基点。它也可能告诉我们更多关于现在市场的定位。初夏，当利率大幅上涨时，我们有许多天的强劲数据。当时的技术面非常出色，市场空头。技术面现在远没有那么强劲。</blockquote> We’ll get an early chance to see an alternative view of the labour market with Wednesday's JOLTS report even if it refers to July. This report has shown great tightness in labour markets of late with quits rates around record highs and vacancy yields at records low. Elsewhere on employment, Thursday's jobless claims will be interesting with Federal UI benefits ending this week for all states. As such we could see a bigger decline in initial claims, though such a fall may wait for another week. As of mid-August, there were still 9.2mn people collecting either PUA or PEUC, most of whom will lose all income support in the coming weeks. While this may provide some relief with respect to the labor shortage it could also leave some light on income which may impact consumption.<blockquote>我们将有机会通过周三的JOLTS报告尽早看到对劳动力市场的另一种看法，即使它指的是7月份。这份报告显示，最近劳动力市场非常紧张，辞职率接近历史高位，空缺率处于历史低位。在就业方面，周四的失业救济申请将会很有趣，所有州的联邦失业救济金将于本周结束。因此，我们可能会看到首次申请失业救济人数出现更大下降，尽管这种下降可能还要再等一周。截至8月中旬，仍有920万人领取PUA或PEUC，其中大多数人将在未来几周内失去所有收入支持。虽然这可能会在一定程度上缓解劳动力短缺，但也可能会影响消费的收入。</blockquote> Back to central banks the most interesting outside of the ECB will be the RBA tomorrow where our economist (link here) is expecting that they will reverse their taper decision, and announce that they’ll continue to purchase government bonds at the current average pace of A$5bn per week, rather than tapering to A$4bn per week.<blockquote>回到央行，欧洲央行之外最有趣的将是明天的澳大利亚央行，我们的经济学家（链接此处）预计他们将改变缩减购债决定，并宣布将继续以目前每周50亿澳元的平均速度购买政府债券，而不是每周缩减至40亿澳元。</blockquote> Asian markets have started the week on the front foot with the Nikkei (+1.80%), Hang Seng (+0.51%), Shanghai Comp (+1.02%) and India’s Nifty (+0.47%) all gaining ground. The Kospi (-0.04%) is flattish. US and Euro Futures are pretty flat. Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices are down -1.12% after Saudi Arabia slashed crude prices for Asian buyers, raising the prospect of competition between OPEC+ producers to gain/maintain market share.<blockquote>亚洲市场本周开局领先，日经指数（+1.80%）、恒生指数（+0.51%）、上证指数（+1.02%）和印度Nifty指数（+0.47%）均上涨。综合股价指数(-0.04%)持平。美国和欧元期货相当持平。在其他地方，布伦特原油价格下跌-1.12%，此前沙特阿拉伯大幅下调了亚洲买家的原油价格，提高了欧佩克+产油国之间争夺/维持市场份额的前景。</blockquote> Turning to the latest on the pandemic, Italy’s Public Administration Minister Renato Brunetta said that the country will decide by the end of September whether vaccines will become mandatory for all people aged 12 and over. The law will be passed if the country hasn’t reached a vaccination level between 80% and 90%. Here in the UK, the government will decide by the end of September on whether to make it mandatory to provide vaccine certification for entry to large venues where infection risk may be higher. The UK Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi further said that the government hasn’t yet decided on whether to roll out vaccines to healthy 12- to 15-year-olds, but if the move does go ahead, then parental consent would be needed.<blockquote>谈到疫情的最新情况，意大利公共行政部长雷纳托·布鲁内塔(Renato Brunetta)表示，该国将在9月底前决定是否对所有12岁及以上的人强制接种疫苗。如果该国没有达到80%至90%的疫苗接种率，该法律将获得通过。在英国，政府将在9月底前决定是否强制要求进入感染风险可能较高的大型场所提供疫苗认证。英国疫苗部长纳齐姆·扎哈维进一步表示，政府尚未决定是否向健康的12至15岁儿童推出疫苗，但如果此举确实继续进行，那么将需要父母的同意。</blockquote> Recapping last week now and global markets saw some divergence as ECB members grew more hawkish and Fed officials stuck to their more dovish tones, with economic data partially reinforcing both views. US equities finished the week just off their highs with the S&amp;P 500 just worse than unchanged (-0.03%) on Friday but finishing up +0.58% over the course of the week. There was a shift to defensives and growth stocks with the NASDAQ gaining +1.55% last week (+0.21% Friday) while cyclicals, such as US banks (-3.69%), were on the back foot. European equities, which are more cyclically focused, underperformed as the STOXX 600 ended the week marginally (-0.09%) lower after Friday’s -0.56% loss.<blockquote>回顾上周，随着欧洲央行成员变得更加鹰派，而美联储官员坚持更加鸽派的基调，全球市场出现了一些分歧，经济数据部分强化了这两种观点。美国股市本周收盘略低于高点，周五标普500略逊于持平（-0.03%），但本周收盘上涨+0.58%。市场转向防御性股票和成长型股票，纳斯达克上周上涨1.55%（周五上涨0.21%），而美国银行等周期性股票（-3.69%）则处于不利地位。更关注周期性的欧洲股市表现不佳，斯托克600指数继周五下跌-0.56%后，本周小幅下跌(-0.09%)。</blockquote> The divergent central bank tones was most apparent in sovereign debt performance. US 10yr Treasury yields ended the week up +1.5bps, most of that coming on Friday’s +3.9bp gain despite a weaker-than-expected employment report as markets looked at other aspects of the report and ahead to the upcoming supply outlook after the holiday weekend. On the other hand, hawkish comment ahead of the ECB meeting saw bond yields in Europe move higher across much of the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) reaching their highest level in over 6 weeks. Peripheral bonds in southern Europe sold off similarly, with 10yr Italian (+7.4bps), Spanish (+4.2bps), Portuguese (+5.0bps), and Greek (+8.9bps) yields all climbing.<blockquote>央行的不同语气在主权债务表现中最为明显。美国10年期国债收益率本周收盘上涨+1.5个基点，其中大部分来自周五的+3.9个基点，尽管就业报告弱于预期，因为市场关注报告的其他方面以及假期后即将到来的供应前景周末。另一方面，欧洲央行会议前的鹰派言论导致欧洲大部分地区的债券收益率走高，10年期国债收益率（+6.2个基点）达到6周多来的最高水平。南欧外围债券也遭到类似抛售，10年期意大利债券（+7.4个基点）、西班牙债券（+4.2个基点）、葡萄牙债券（+5.0个基点）和希腊债券（+8.9个基点）收益率均攀升。</blockquote> Outside of the employment report on Friday, global composite PMIs for August slowed from the previous reading, but remained in strong expansionary territory in Europe and the US. The final Euro area composite PMI was down 0.5pts from the initial reading at 59.0, while Germany’s figure fell 0.6pts to 60.0. Meanwhile the US saw the composite PMI stay at 55.4, which is the lowest reading in eight months as the pace of growth seems to have definitively peaked back in May. The US ISM services PMI fell 2.4pts to 61.7 last month while the commentary continues to highlight supply chain disturbances and labour shortages. Finally, Euro Area retail sales for July showed a -2.3% slowdown (0.0% expected), after the previous month was revised up 0.3pp to 1.8%. The drop is reflective of the surge in cases at that time due to the delta variant.<blockquote>除了周五的就业报告之外，8月份全球综合采购经理人指数较前值有所放缓，但欧洲和美国仍处于强劲扩张区间。欧元区综合PMI终值较初值59.0下降0.5个百分点，德国下降0.6个百分点至60.0。与此同时，美国综合PMI保持在55.4，这是八个月来的最低读数，因为增长速度似乎已经在5月份明确见顶。美国ISM服务业PMI上个月下降2.4点至61.7，而评论继续强调供应链中断和劳动力短缺。最后，欧元区7月份零售额放缓-2.3%（预期为0.0%），此前一个月上调0.3个百分点至1.8%。这一下降反映了当时由于德尔塔变异毒株导致病例激增。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-rise-europe-and-china-bounce-us-closed-holiday?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-rise-europe-and-china-bounce-us-closed-holiday?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112027349","content_text":"It may be a holiday in the US, but US equity futures are once again levitating and on the verge of new all time highs, while global shares posted their longest winning streak in three months on Monday, aided by fading odds of an imminent taper coupled with talk of more stimulus in Japan and China, while oil slid as the Saudis cut prices for Asian customers by more than twice the expected amount in a sign the world’s largest crude exporter wants to entice buyers to take more of its barrels.\nThe labor day holiday in the US means trading conditions will be extremely thin, which helped MSCI’s all-country world index gain 0.2%, touching a new record level and on course for its seventh consecutive closing high. Meanwhile in the US, S&P futs rose 0.2% to 4,544 while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.3%.\nIn Europe the STOXX index of 600 European companies was 0.7% higher, inching closer to August record peaks, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 0.9%. Other majors added ~0.6% with tech, household & personal goods and insurance doing much of the heavy lifting. Real estate is the only sector in the red. S&P futures follow Europe, rising 0.2%. Luxury firms LVMH, Kering and Hermes led gains on France’s CAC 40 Index, with Bryan Garnier noting that China’s “common prosperity” goal won’t hurt all luxury companies the same way while helping expand the country’s middle class -- a positive overall for the sector; LVMH shares were up 2% as of 12:20pm in Paris while Kering, the owner of Gucci, gains 1.6%; Hermes gained 1.8%. LVMH shares had shed 7% in August, as investors jumped out of the expensive luxury sector amid worries about the new policy in China, a crucial growth engine for the industry. “Common prosperity” policy “does not mean ‘killing’ rich people,” Bryan Garnier analyst Loic Morvan writes in a note. Elsewhere, here are some of the biggest European movers today:\n\nNorsk Hydro shares jump as much as 5% to the highest level since July 2008 after the aluminum price climbed because of political unrest in Guinea.\nScor shares gain as much as 3.4% after JPMorgan raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight from neutral.\nLeonardo shares rise as much as 2.3% after the group’s CEO said on Friday that the company plans to proceed with the IPO of its U.S. unit DRS “as soon as conditions allow.”\nDechra Pharmaceuticals shares fall as much as 9.5% after the company posted results that met estimates. Stifel cuts its rating to hold, noting little upside in the stock.\nEQT AB shares drop as much as 6.4%, seeing $2 billion wiped off the company’s market value after analysts at Nordea Bank cut their recommendation on the stock to sell.\nSpie shares lose as much as 4.7% after the company said it’s submitting an offer to buy Engie’s Equans unit and plans to use a combination of debt and equity to fund the transaction.\n\nInvestors were also still assessing the fallout from the September payrolls report, which showed a much smaller increase in jobs than expected, at just 235,000, but also a sharp pickup in wages, hinting at stagflation. The latter was enough to nudge longer-dated Treasury yields higher and steepen the yield curve, even as markets speculated over whether the Federal Reserve might not start tapering until later than previously thought.\n“Expectations of a delay in Fed tapering as well as a new administration in Japan is supporting equity markets and we expect this to continue,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds. “Buy-on-dip is as robust as ever, taking negative news such as U.S. nonfarm payrolls as good news which is typical of an advanced carry trade.”\nInvestors “are now already betting on the Fed delaying tapering,” Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades, wrote in emailed comments.“Even if the prospect of sustained monetary support is helping to lift market sentiment, today’s session is likely to stay muted but technical,”especially given the holiday in the U.S. and lack of macro data releases, he said.\n“Employment decelerated sharply in August, with little indication of a pickup in labour supply,” said Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. “This puts the Fed in a quandary as it balances risks of a sharp demand slowdown against those of tight supply and inflation...We still expect the Fed to signal tapering in September, but now expect it to begin in December not November. QE will likely end by the middle of 2022.”\nEarlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, boosted by a rally in Japan on prospects of better economic and pandemic policies under a new leader. Chinese shares also jumped. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose about 0.6% overnight to the highest since late July, while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8%, on track to close at a two-month high, as communication services and technology shares led the advance.  Gains in Asia were led by Japan, where the equity benchmark rose to a 31-year high on wagers for new economic policies once Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga steps down.Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.8% to a five-month top, extending a rally on hopes a new prime minister there would bring added fiscal spending (and thus even more debt-monetizing QE).  Hopes of fresh stimulus from Beijing through fiscal and monetary policy lifted Chinese blue chips 1.9%.\nJapan’s Nikkei 225 gauge was among top-performing benchmarks, while the Topix extended gains from a more than 30-year high after Japan’s prime minister’s exit was announced Friday. “As Suga’s rising unpopularity partly stems from a perceived inability on his part to manage the Covid-19 pandemic, the new leadership will have to address this issue,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. “This seems to bring high hopes of further economic stimulus to aid businesses and also bolstering of healthcare systems to tackle rising Covid-19 cases.”\nChinese stocks rose overall, with the Hang Seng Tech Index ending the day higher. Tencent shares were among the top contributors to the Asian benchmark’s rise as Citigroup said its to-be-launched League of Legends Mobile game could buoy sentiment about China’s gaming industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing also jumped as Goldman Sachs raised its price target on expectations of a price hike for wafers. Sentiment toward Asian stocks has improved since late August on optimism of gradual tapering by the Federal Reserve. Disappointing U.S. payroll growth data on Friday reinforced that view, as the economy added 235,000 jobs in August - the smallest increase in seven months.\nIn rates, the rise in U.S. 10-year yields to 1.33% limited some of the pressure on the dollar from the poor payrolls print, though its index still touched a one-month low before steadying at 92.207. Cash Treasurys were closed on Monday. Fixed income was also quiet in Europe ahead of this week’s risk events. Bunds bear flatten a touch, gilts bull steepen; both settling off extremes of the morning’s trade. Italy leads a modest tightening in peripheral spreads. Long-end Spain lags after reports the sovereign intends to raise 5 billion euros from a debut green debt deal.\nIn FX, the dollar was changing hands versus the yen at 109.90, while the euro stood at $1.1868 after hitting a five-week top of $1.1908 on Friday. currencies traded in a tight range with a hint of USD outperformance. AUD, SEK and NZD are at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. Indonesia’s rupiah and the Thai baht led most emerging Asian currencies higher as gains in regional equities boosted risk appetite. The Taiwan dollar climbed, touching the strongest level since early June. Indonesia’s rupiah advances for a third day, aided by foreign fund inflows into the nation’s bonds and equities.\nThe European Central Bank holds its policy meeting this weekand a number of policy hawks have been calling for a step back in the bank’s huge asset-buying programme, though President Christine Lagarde has sounded more dovish.Euro zone sovereign bond yields barely budged on Monday. In early trade, Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield was steady at -0.36%. “We expect the ECB to announce a reduced pace of Q4 PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme) at its September meeting on the back of easier financial conditions,” said analysts at TD Securities. “All other policy levers are likely to be left on hold, with inflation forecasts revised sharply up this year and next. Communication risks are high, and Lagarde will want to avoid sounding overly hawkish, instead emphasising ‘persistence’.”\nIn commodities, oil slid after Saudi Arabia slashed prices of all crude grades to Asian customers, while leaving prices to northwestern Europe and the United States steady. While futures rebounded from Asia’s lows, WTI remains ~0.9% lower but recovers above $68.50; Brent returns back below $72 after a short-lived bounce.\n\nThe prospect of a later start to Fed tapering proved only fleetingly positive for non-yielding gold, which stood at $1,825 an ounce, having reached its highest since mid-June at $1,833.80. L\nAluminum hit the highest in over a decade on the LME as political unrest in Guinea fueled concerns over supply of the raw material needed to make the metal. A unit of the military seized power and suspended the constitution, raising the possibility of disruption to bauxite shipment from the key global supplier.LME lead and nickel lag peers, dropping over 1%.\nBitcoin was up for a sixth day, trading around $51,700 apiece, while Ethereum continued to coil just under $4,000 waiting for the next major short squeeze that will take it to new record highs and $10,000 thereafter.\nThere is nothing on the US calendar today due to Labor day. In Germany, we got the July factory orders (3.4% vs -1.0 Exp.), August construction PMI (49.5, Last 49.5) and UK August construction PMI (55.2, exp. 56.9).\n* * *\nDB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap\nAll of a sudden after 18 months at home I’m going to a DB conference this week and I’ll also be back in the office for a day. My wife is hosting a “he’s finally gone back to the office” party at home. Talking of parties we hosted a huge children’s party for the twins 4th birthday on Saturday. Given the lockdowns of the last year we wanted to do something special but boy was it stressful. Indeed I’m still recovering from having 70 screaming kids running loose and shouting in my ears. Good preparation for my first “live” team meeting back.\nThe champagne corks might be about to go off in the offices of the more hawkish European member states’ central banks this week as an important ECB meeting (Thursday) will be the main highlight. They could use it to announce the start of the end of the PEPP (more later). Before that though, today is a US holiday (Labor Day) with tomorrow and Wednesday Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year). So the week will likely get off to a slow start.\nElsewhere we’ll get monetary policy decisions from Australia (tomorrow), Canada (Wednesday), and Russia (Friday), and prior reports from Bloomberg have suggested that President Biden could decide who the next Fed Chair is from around this week. In terms of other data, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the German ZEW (tomorrow), US JOLTS (Wednesday), China CPI/PPI (Thursday) and US PPI (Friday).\nThe ECB meeting on Thursday is likely the most important event though. At this meeting, the Governing Council are due to conduct a joint assessment of financing conditions and the outlook for inflation, which will be the basis for a recalibration of the pace of PEPP net purchases. The big question for investors will be whether the ECB slows down these purchases, and recent comments by Chief Economist Lane implied that the hurdle to decelerating purchases might be lower than the market had assumed, as he played down the broader significance of a deceleration. Furthermore, we’ve also had the flash CPI estimate that’s showed inflation was running at +3.0% in August, the highest level in nearly a decade. In their preview (link here), our European economists are of the view that an announcement of slower purchases is slightly more likely at this meeting than in December. So it could be a taper week.\nElsewhere it’ll be interesting to see what the Fed speakers make of Friday’s payrolls report. NY President Williams' (dove) has a speech on the economic outlook on Wednesday. Dallas' Kaplan (hawk / non-voter) talks on Wednesday and he has been a proponent of a September taper so will he wobble? Elsewhere Cleveland's Mester (hawk / non-voter) also talks on Friday.\nFriday's jobs report had something for everyone. Weak payrolls but signs of supply constraints in the details. The headline (235k vs. 1053k last month including revisions) and private (243k vs. 798k) payrolls were below the consensus of 733k and 610k, respectively. It seems the Fed are disproportionately focused on this headline number but there was strength elsewhere. Both the headline U-3 (5.2% vs. 5.4%) and U-6 (8.8% vs. 9.2%) rates improved amidst a 509k gain in employment and 318k decline in unemployment. In addition, the prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio improved a couple of tenths to 78% and prime-age participation held steady at 81.8%. Average earnings were at +4.3% against +3.9% expected. Perhaps this explains why 10 year yields ended the day around +4bps higher even with the substantial payrolls miss. It may also tell us a bit more about the positioning of the market now. We had many days of strong data in the early summer while rates rallied hard. The technicals back then were phenomenal and the market short. The technicals are now far less strong.\nWe’ll get an early chance to see an alternative view of the labour market with Wednesday's JOLTS report even if it refers to July. This report has shown great tightness in labour markets of late with quits rates around record highs and vacancy yields at records low. Elsewhere on employment, Thursday's jobless claims will be interesting with Federal UI benefits ending this week for all states. As such we could see a bigger decline in initial claims, though such a fall may wait for another week. As of mid-August, there were still 9.2mn people collecting either PUA or PEUC, most of whom will lose all income support in the coming weeks. While this may provide some relief with respect to the labor shortage it could also leave some light on income which may impact consumption.\nBack to central banks the most interesting outside of the ECB will be the RBA tomorrow where our economist (link here) is expecting that they will reverse their taper decision, and announce that they’ll continue to purchase government bonds at the current average pace of A$5bn per week, rather than tapering to A$4bn per week.\nAsian markets have started the week on the front foot with the Nikkei (+1.80%), Hang Seng (+0.51%), Shanghai Comp (+1.02%) and India’s Nifty (+0.47%) all gaining ground. The Kospi (-0.04%) is flattish. US and Euro Futures are pretty flat. Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices are down -1.12% after Saudi Arabia slashed crude prices for Asian buyers, raising the prospect of competition between OPEC+ producers to gain/maintain market share.\nTurning to the latest on the pandemic, Italy’s Public Administration Minister Renato Brunetta said that the country will decide by the end of September whether vaccines will become mandatory for all people aged 12 and over. The law will be passed if the country hasn’t reached a vaccination level between 80% and 90%. Here in the UK, the government will decide by the end of September on whether to make it mandatory to provide vaccine certification for entry to large venues where infection risk may be higher. The UK Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi further said that the government hasn’t yet decided on whether to roll out vaccines to healthy 12- to 15-year-olds, but if the move does go ahead, then parental consent would be needed.\nRecapping last week now and global markets saw some divergence as ECB members grew more hawkish and Fed officials stuck to their more dovish tones, with economic data partially reinforcing both views. US equities finished the week just off their highs with the S&P 500 just worse than unchanged (-0.03%) on Friday but finishing up +0.58% over the course of the week. There was a shift to defensives and growth stocks with the NASDAQ gaining +1.55% last week (+0.21% Friday) while cyclicals, such as US banks (-3.69%), were on the back foot. European equities, which are more cyclically focused, underperformed as the STOXX 600 ended the week marginally (-0.09%) lower after Friday’s -0.56% loss.\nThe divergent central bank tones was most apparent in sovereign debt performance. US 10yr Treasury yields ended the week up +1.5bps, most of that coming on Friday’s +3.9bp gain despite a weaker-than-expected employment report as markets looked at other aspects of the report and ahead to the upcoming supply outlook after the holiday weekend. On the other hand, hawkish comment ahead of the ECB meeting saw bond yields in Europe move higher across much of the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) reaching their highest level in over 6 weeks. Peripheral bonds in southern Europe sold off similarly, with 10yr Italian (+7.4bps), Spanish (+4.2bps), Portuguese (+5.0bps), and Greek (+8.9bps) yields all climbing.\nOutside of the employment report on Friday, global composite PMIs for August slowed from the previous reading, but remained in strong expansionary territory in Europe and the US. The final Euro area composite PMI was down 0.5pts from the initial reading at 59.0, while Germany’s figure fell 0.6pts to 60.0. Meanwhile the US saw the composite PMI stay at 55.4, which is the lowest reading in eight months as the pace of growth seems to have definitively peaked back in May. The US ISM services PMI fell 2.4pts to 61.7 last month while the commentary continues to highlight supply chain disturbances and labour shortages. Finally, Euro Area retail sales for July showed a -2.3% slowdown (0.0% expected), after the previous month was revised up 0.3pp to 1.8%. 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